Nigeria 2023 Presidential Elections: Key Issues & Lessons

Prepared by: Abubakar Abubakar Usamn

Research fellow, Asia Middle East Center for Research and Dialogue (AMEC)

Introduction
Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Elections marked the country’s sixth consecutive election since the
return to democratic rule in 1999. As the most populous country in Africa and a significant
player in the global community, the Elections were closely watched by both domestic and
international stakeholders. The election campaigns were dominated by a range of complex and
pressing issues, such as insecurity, corruption, poverty, and unemployment, all of which posed
significant challengesto the nation’s development. The Elections were highly competitive, with
18 political parties and candidates vying for the top position. However, it eventually became a
four-horse race among the leading candidates. In this context, this essay intends to discuss the
key issues that shaped the outcome of the 2023 Presidential Elections, the lessons that can be
learned, and the implications of the results.

Electoral Process
Nigeria’s electoral process has been plagued by allegations of vote rigging, vote buying, and
violence in the past. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is responsible
for organizing and conducting the Presidential Elections, and it has introduced various
measures to ensure free and fair elections, such as the use of biometric voter identification and
electronic transmission of results, as well as the deployment of security personnel to maintain
law and order. However, despite these efforts, there have been instances of electoral
malpractices and irregularities in past elections. In response, INEC has promised to use the
Bimodal Voter Registration System (BVAS), a technological device used to identify and
accredit voters’ fingerprints and facial recognition before voting. Additionally, INEC has
introduced the Election Result Viewing Portal (IReV), an online portal where polling unit level
results are uploaded directly from the polling unit, transmitted, and published for the public.
These new measures are aimed at improving the credibility and transparency of the electoral
process in Nigeria.

Political Parties
Nigeria operates a multi-party system, with over 90 registered political parties. Among them,
the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) are the leading
political parties in the country, with the largest membership and political influence. However,
othersignificant parties,such asthe New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) and the Labour Party
(LP), have also recently gained some popularity in some parts of the country among particular
voters. The APC’s ideology centers around promoting economic growth, fighting corruption,
and improving security. On the other hand, the PDP’s ideology is centered around social justice,
democracy, and good governance. These two parties have dominated the political landscape in
Nigeria, with their policies and actions shaping the direction of the country’s politics and
development.

Presidential Elections 2023 Outcome

The table provides information about the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Elections, showing the
results for four political parties: the All Progressives Congress (APC), the People’s Democratic
Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP), and the New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP). The APC
and PDP are the leading political parties in Nigeria, with both winning 12 states each. The LP
won 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory, while the NNPP won only one state. The APC’s
candidate was Tinubu, and the PDP’s candidate was Atiku, while the LP’s candidate was Obi,
and the NNPP’s candidate was Kwankwaso. The total number of votes cast was 23,377,466,
with the APC winning the highest number of votes at 8,794,726, representing 36.61% of the
total vote cast. The PDP came in second, winning 6,984,520 votes, representing 29.07% of the

total vote cast. The LP won 6,101,533 votes, representing 25.40% of the total vote cast, while
the NNPP won 1,496,687 votes, representing 6.40% of the total vote cast.

Elections Outcome by States

Factors that Influenced Presidential Elections Outcome

• Socio-economic Issues
  The 2023 Presidential Elections in Nigeria were marked by the candidates’ plans and strategies
  for addressing the country’s complex socio-economic challenges. Poverty is a significant issue,
  with over 40% of the population living below the poverty line, while unemployment is another
  pressing challenge, with an estimated 33% of young people unemployed. Additionally,
  inadequate infrastructure, such as power, transportation, and healthcare, is a significant
  hindrance to economic development. Candidates in the election needed to demonstrate a clear
  understanding of these issues and present credible solutions to gain voter support.
  However, a currency crisis engulfed the country due to the new banknote policy of President
  Buhari and the Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, intended to curb vote buying ahead
  of the election. The poorly implemented policy led to shortages of the new currency, causing
  Tinubu and other prominent APC figures to break with Buhari, first suing to stop its enactment,
  then criticizing the administration’s handling of the situation. Surprisingly, other leading
  political parties welcomed the new currency policy expecting it to increase their chances of
  winning the elections.

• Ethnic and Religious Divisions
  Nigeria’s diversity is reflected in its purportedly more than 250 ethnic groups and its significant
  divide between Muslims and Christians. Muslims are estimated to be slightly more than
  Christians in Nigeria. In previous Presidential Elections, ethnic and religious divisions have
  played a significant role, with candidates often relying on the support of their ethnic and
  religious groups. However, this has led to accusations of nepotism, favoritism, and
  discrimination, and in some cases, it has resulted in violence and unrest. As a result,
  ethnoreligious factors have played a significant role in determining voting patterns throughout
  the country, with some voters casting their ballots based on ethnic or religious affiliation rather
  than policy positions or candidate qualifications.
  The impact of ethnoreligious factors on the outcome of the presidential elections is evident in
  the candidates’ percentage of votes from their respective political zones. The eventual winner,
  Ahmed Tinubu of APC, received 53.59% of votes from the South West, despite losing his state
  of origin to Peter Obi. Atiku Abubakar of PDP secured 50.58% of votes from the North East
  geopolitical zone, despite having the APC vice presidential candidate from the same zone. Peter
  Obi of LP received 87.78% of the total votes in the South East, his geopolitical zone. Rabiu
  Kwankwaso of NNPP, on the other hand, obtained 18.96% of the total votes in the North West,
  the highest percentage among all other geopolitical regions of the country.

Observations and Feedback on the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Elections
According to the EU EOM observers, the 2023 Nigerian presidential elections were marked by
late deployment and opening of polling stations, while polling procedures were not always
followed, and there were struggles to complete result forms. Similarly, according to the
International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute, who conducted a joint
observer mission, the election did not meet the reasonable expectations of Nigerian citizens.
Most polling units also did not post the results publicly.
Despite these issues, the election witnessed a comparatively large turnout of voters in various
geopolitical zones, according to the Observer Mission. The US congratulated the winner of the
election while acknowledging concerns over some alleged shortcomings. In terms of vote
buying, the Foreign Mission observed minimal incidences during the polls, which recorded a
high turnout of voters nationwide.

Implications on Nigeria’s Foreign Relations
Nigeria holds an important position in African politics, and its role in the international
community is crucial. The West African region has been plagued by military coups, with three
successful coups taking place in the past four years alone. The outcome of the 2023 Presidential

Elections in Nigeria will have far-reaching implications for the country’s foreign policy and
relationships with other nations. The incoming President will face the challenge of managing
complex regional and international relationships and balancing competing interests. Global
powers such as the United States, China, and the EU have all closely monitored the elections
and are looking to engage with the new administration. The elections provide an opportunity
for Nigeria to showcase its commitment to democracy and good governance, strengthening its
position as a leader in the region and beyond.

Post-election Challenges
The aftermath of the 2023 Presidential Elections in Nigeria presents several challenges that
must be addressed to ensure a smooth transition of power. One of the potential challenges is
related to the acceptance of the election results This has, so far, led to protests and even
violence, as has happened in previous elections. Another challenge is related to addressing any
instances of violence or unrest that may have arisen during or after the elections, to maintain
law and order. Mending the ethnoreligious rifts caused by the election’s outcome will also be a
challenge. Given Nigeria’s diverse ethnic and religious composition, it is crucial to address any
tensions and promote reconciliation among different groups. Additionally, the government will
need to address the issue of IPOB, a secessionist movement based in the Southeast of the
country and find ways to address their grievances while maintaining national unity.
The incoming government faces a multitude of challenges, both in terms of security and the
economy. The ongoing threats posed by banditry and religious extremist movements continue
to have devastating effects on the country, particularly in the Northern regions. Moreover,
Nigeria’s economy has been struggling in recent years, leading to a rise in youth unemployment
nationwide and a lack of opportunities. These problems are further compounded by the
alarming increases in public debt and uncontrollable fiscal difficulties. To ensure a better future
for the Nigerian people, the new administration must confront these challenges head-on.
Additionally, the issue of restructuring the country’s political system, which previous
administrations have avoided, must be addressed for sustainability and to promote greater
stability and fairness.

Implications on Future
The 2023 Presidential Elections in Nigeria are of great significance as they will shape the
country’s future development and prospects. The outcome of the elections will determine
Nigeria’s political, economic, and social policies for the next four years. It presents an
opportunity for Nigeria to address its pressing socio-economic challenges, promote national
unity and inclusivity, and reinforce its position as a leader in the region and beyond. The
elections will also serve as a platform for the country to learn important lessons for future

elections, particularly in the areas of electoral integrity, voter education, and political
leadership. It is essential that all stakeholders, including political leaders, civil society, and the
media, remain committed to upholding the principles of democracy and good governance for
the success of the elections. By learning from past experiences and addressing current
challenges, Nigeria can build a stronger and more prosperous future for all its citizens.

Recommendations
To ensure a smooth electoral process and mitigate potential challenges:

• Nigeria must establish strong and independent institutions that oversee the electoral
  process and guarantee its fairness and transparency.
• It is vital for political leaders to respect the rule of law and accept the election results,
  even if they disagree with them.
• Adequate contingency plans must be put in place to address any potential violence or
  unrest and ensure the safety and security of all citizens.
• Civil society organizations and international observers must also play a significant role
  in monitoring and reporting on the electoral process.
• The independence and impartiality of the Independent National Electoral Commission
  (INEC) is crucial to ensure a credible electoral process.
• To continuously improve the electoral process, there is a need for increased voter
  education and sensitization, and stronger sanctions for electoral offenders.
• By taking these steps, Nigeria can demonstrate its commitment to democracy and the
  peaceful transfer of power, and strengthen its position as a stable and prosperous nation.

Conclusion
The 2023 Presidential Elections in Nigeria is a defining moment for the country’s democracy
and future development. A range of critical issues have shaped the elections, including the
economy, security, corruption, ethnic and religious divisions, and international relations. It is
vital that all stakeholders work together to promote free and fair elections, uphold the rule of
law, and maintain peace and stability. The elections has provided an opportunity for Nigeria to
address its socio-economic challenges, promote national unity and inclusivity, and strengthen
its position as a leader in the region and beyond. By learning from past experiences and
addressing current challenges, Nigeria can build a more inclusive, democratic, and prosperous
society for all its citizens. Ultimately, the success of the elections will depend on the
commitment of all Nigerians to building a stronger and more prosperous future for the country.