Foreign Policy Analysis – Trump: A Game of Russian Roulette with the World

Will Trump Drown America with the World or Make It Great Again? 

This is an enduring question about Trump’s presidency, debated long before he even won the election. Most people already understood that Trump was on the brink of a historic victory against the relentless push from corporate globalist forces. Yet, the tight-knit circles controlling the Biden administration obstinately refused to heed external counsel or consider alternative perspectives. 

Over a week ahead of Trump’s inauguration, he and his team began dropping hints about the planned dismantling of the existing global governance structures that sought to keep him from power. The blunt and unapologetic threats directed at sovereign nations are the sort of rhetoric one might expect from countries like India and Pakistan, where political decorum often takes a backseat to raw, unfiltered power struggles. 

The overt hostility displayed towards Canada and other traditionally friendly nations has shaken the bedrock of Western political stability—a foundation that once distinguished the West from more chaotic political arenas. It echoes the crumbling illusion of Israel’s once-invincible military dominance, which, when truly tested, has repeatedly faltered. It seems increasingly clear that 2025 will be one of the most turbulent years in recent memory for Western nations. 

Timing and Narrative Control: The Musk Factor 

It is important to ask why Trump and his team are making these pronouncements at these specific moments. Elon Musk’s recent attacks on the British government were not random—they were strategically timed. Just as Trump’s MAGA base erupted in fury over his suggestion of bringing in large numbers of Indian workers to the U.S.—a stark reversal of his earlier vow to dismantle foreign work visa schemes—Musk conveniently launched his tirade. His enormous following on X (formerly Twitter) makes it the perfect tool to steer narratives and subdue dissent within Trump’s base. 

When discourse around grooming gangs in Britain escalated and was painted broadly as an “Asian problem,” Musk swiftly reshaped the narrative by retweeting posts suggesting it was a Pakistani issue, not an Indian one. This was not a coincidence. Yet, India remains one of the world’s leading countries for reported sexual assaults—an uncomfortable fact seemingly ignored by Trump and his team for reasons of political convenience. 

During his first term, Trump met India’s far-right Prime Minister Narendra Modi on three occasions: once in Washington D.C., another time at the grandiose “Howdy Modi” rally in Texas attended by 50,000 Indian-Americans, and finally during his state visit to India in February 2020. Back then, Trump likely viewed India primarily as a lucrative market for American goods. However, in his second term, India’s influence appears set to grow within Trump’s inner circle, with key Indian-American figures holding influential positions or even being married into his core team. 

This is a significant development. Apart from the long-standing Israeli dual national influence in U.S. politics, India now seems poised to become the second most influential foreign power in shaping American domestic and foreign policy over the next four years. Trump appears likely to prioritise India even above Europe and Canada—a notable irony considering the severe diplomatic fallout between Canada and India in June 2023, when Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a prominent Sikh separatist leader and Canadian citizen, was assassinated outside a gurdwara in Surrey, British Columbia. Canadian intelligence directly accused the Indian government of orchestrating the assassination. 

Canada, India, and the Fragile Western Alliance 

India’s growing proximity to Trump is being conspicuously overlooked by many analysts, despite its obvious significance as a key piece on Trump’s geopolitical chessboard. However, Trump seems blind to the repercussions of alienating Canada, Panama, and Europe simultaneously. Such confrontations will likely push these nations to band together in opposition to the United States, causing instability not just abroad but within American borders. 

Russia, meanwhile, will likely observe the unfolding chaos with detached amusement, popcorn in hand. The friction that Russia once faced with NATO seems now to be brought to NATO’s doorstep by Trump and his team—an ironic twist orchestrated, in part, by the world’s richest man. 

NATO: A House in Disarray 

Following Trump’s first term, some European nations, notably France, floated the idea of forming a European army to ensure collective security independent of American whims. However, Biden’s presidency largely shelved these ambitions, redirecting focus towards NATO’s war efforts in Ukraine. 

With Trump back in power, NATO may face paralysis, or worse, disintegration. Individual member states might break ranks, showing loyalty to Trump in exchange for economic benefits rather than prioritising collective security. This would spell disaster for NATO, which could soon become a hollow shell of its former self. 

Trump’s Economic Gambit: A Risky Transaction 

Trump has always portrayed himself first and foremost as a businessman, and his foreign policy reflects this transactional mindset. While his approach may generate short-term economic gains, it risks leaving the U.S. isolated on the global stage and could severely disrupt international supply chains. 

If Trump aggressively targets Canada, the UK, or European nations with economic warfare, the resulting fractures will deter foreign investors. Already wary of America’s unpredictable political climate, they may pivot towards other, more stable economies. 

Simultaneously, Trump’s expected crackdown on illegal immigration and potential skirmishes with Panama and Mexico could wreak havoc on cross-border cooperation, exacerbating economic tensions. 

The Ripple Effect: Global Stability in Question 

The question now arises: as the Western hemisphere grows increasingly unstable, what ripple effects will emerge in the next one to four years? How will foreign investors interpret Trump’s relentless attacks on America’s traditional allies? If Trump alienates multiple key partners simultaneously, they are likely to unite against America for at least the duration of his presidency. Such a scenario would create severe investor instability not only in the U.S. but across the Western world. 

Will European countries begin to see China as a more dependable trading partner? Could Trump’s brash style inadvertently gift China strategic advantages while undermining India, which seems to have gone all-in on Team Trump? Asia seems poised to become a more stable region, but this will depend heavily on how individual nations play their cards. 

Meanwhile, Trump will attempt to manage crises on multiple fronts: illegal immigration in the U.S., potential military tensions with Panama and Mexico, and economic wars with Canada, the UK, and Europe. At the same time, he will likely seek to secure support from select Asian countries to counterbalance China in the twilight years of his presidency. 

Trump: A Game of Russian Roulette 

Trump’s presidency increasingly resembles a high-stakes game of Russian Roulette. And this is without even touching on the complexities of the Middle East. His grandiose claim of resolving a conflict that even Israel has been unable to win after a year of brutal warfare is unlikely to lead to meaningful negotiations. Instead, it seems more plausible that Trump will continue to blow hot air in the media while privately making contradictory promises and threats to both sides, playing the role of the ultimate salesman. 

His primary goal will be to secure a symbolic victory—something he can showcase to his voter base as proof that he’s not only an entertainer but also a peacemaker capable of solving conflicts that have endured for decades. 

As world leaders clamber for Trump’s attention, eager for a metaphorical (and literal) selfie with the man of the hour, they must tread carefully. Beyond the photo-op lies a precarious balance, where one wrong step could lead to either unparalleled economic prosperity or a catastrophic geopolitical downfall. 

Mr. Muad M Zaki   

Senior Fellow

WRITTEN BY:

Muad Zaki
Director of Democracy & Transparency Initiative,
AMEC

*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

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