What We Can Learn About Energy Security from Sweden’s Transition to Renewable Energy
Threats to global energy systems are on the rise. Geopolitical changes, attacks on energy infrastructure, and supply chain disruptions are currently threatening energy supplies worldwide. (IEA, n.d). With the latest events in the Middle East, the issue is highly relevant as the turbulent geopolitical situation affects oil supplies and risks energy prices to skyrocket (Russel, 2026).
Relying on fossil fuels leaves countries extremely sensitive to external factors such as supply disruptions and price volatility. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 shed light on the geopolitical aspects of energy supplies and accelerated the green transition in Europe. Sweden is a small country with a unique position. To meet its climate goals, Sweden has ensured that 98 percent of its electricity comes from low-carbon sources (The Swedish Government, 2023). Low-carbon energy refers to energy sources that produce low levels of greenhouse gas. Renewable energy comes from self-replenishing sources such as wind power and hydro power. The transformation is not only important for handling climate change but also a way of increasing resilience in a turbulent world.
This article examines how the Swedish energy system has contributed to its strategic resilience, the general geopolitical implications of a green transition, and what policymakers can learn from the Swedish case.
Sweden’s energy system and strategic resilience
Sweden has a political and public consensus to achieve the net-zero goal by 2045 (IEA, 2024). Sweden’s green energy system provides a strong foundation for strategic resilience in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment. Sweden relies largely on domestically produced, low-carbon electricity, with hydropower, nuclear energy, and wind power, making it the EU leader in low-carbon electricity (Ember, 2026). This reduces dependence on imported fossil fuels and limits exposure to global supply disruptions and price volatility.
Sweden’s diversified energy structure also enhances energy reliability. Relying on multiple energy sources helps balance fluctuations in supply and demand, reducing the risk of large-scale disruptions. Different energy sources have different functions in a diversified system. Hydro power plays a key role by enabling storage and adjustment depending on demand, making it important for balancing the grid. Nuclear power helps provide a stable energy supply that is not easily affected by external factors. Wind power complements these energy sources by further contributing to the energy system at a low marginal cost. (IEA, n.d) Together, this diversified mix enhances energy security in the context of growing geopolitical tensions and increasing pressure on global energy markets.
Opportunities of green transition
Last week, Brent crude oil prices rose 28 percent amid current events in the Middle East. Iranian attacks on oil facilities in the Gulf region and disrupted shipping routes have put energy security in many parts of the world at risk (CSIS, 2026). Countries able to produce reliable, non-fossil fuels on a large scale and reduce dependency on oil and gas exports are likely to gain a strategic advantage in the international system.
The first pillar of energy security is availability. Green energy, mainly locally produced, reduces dependence on imported oil and gas, increasing the availability even in turbulent times. The transition of the energy sector can not be understood solely as a matter of climate change. It is also a matter of stability, security, and resilience.
The second pillar of energy security is reliability. Energy supplies are supposed to work without risk of disruptions such as war, sabotage, or natural disasters. One way to ensure this is by diversifying the energy sector. Sweden has a very diversified energy sector, with energy from wind to nuclear power. Also, an assured balanced energy supply, meaning that input equals output (Swedish Energy Agency, 2025). If one energy source is disrupted, the country can rely on another. The case of Sweden’s diversified energy sector can show how a multifaceted energy production can create greater resilience to external events and threats.
The third pillar is affordability. Too high prices will affect households, the transport sector, industries, and economic growth. For this reason, an important part of energy security is keeping the prices down. Countries heavily dependent on oil and gas become, as mentioned earlier, extremely sensitive to price volatility. This issue is something we can see now when oil prices have increased due to the war in Iran, as well as when Russia fully invaded Ukraine in 2022. Renewable energy sources are produced locally and are, for this reason, less sensitive to the global market, resulting in more stable and predictable prices.
Taken together, Sweden’s energy transition highlights how the shift toward renewable energy can simultaneously enhance availability, reliability, and affordability: three core pillars of energy security.
Sweden in the European Energy Security Context
As previously noted, energy security has gained relevance after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The European energy system was forced to adapt to a new geopolitical environment. Energy security became a topic at the forefront of policy discussion across the European Union. Shortly after the full invasion in 2022, the EU launched REPowerEU with the plan to phase out Russian fossil fuels. The project aims to save energy, produce clean energy and diversify the energy sector (European Commission, 2022). In this context, Sweden’s diversified and, to a large extent, clean energy system stands out as a model of resilience.
Furthermore, regional energy cooperation provides an additional layer of stability that could be applied to the broader European context. Regional cooperation can further strengthen the resilience. It balances the supply and reduces the risk of domestic shortages. NordPool is a regional energy cooperation that started between Sweden and Norway and is now working as a cornerstone in the European energy market. They are promoting competition, price transparency, efficient electricity markets and the integration of renewables into the market (NordPool, n.d)
Remaining challenges
Sweden serves as an archetype of a green transition and illustrates how it can benefit energy security. However, there are still challenges we need to take into consideration.
As industries and the transport sector shift toward electrification, energy demand increases rapidly. The supply must grow to potentially meet a doubling of electricity demand in the coming decades (IEA, 2024). Energy transition takes time, and there is a risk of falling behind demand.
Furthermore, Sweden is part of the EU, making it integrated in the European energy market. Energy prices will be affected by this, even though Sweden has a strong domestic supply of energy. For resilience to become stronger, other countries must take action towards an energy transition.
Lastly, the green transition is dependent on policymakers. In a period of economic uncertainty and geopolitical threats, climate change seems to be less prioritized. Sweden will fail to meet its own and the EU’s climate goals by 2030 (SVT, 2025). Taking into consideration what has been discussed in this article, this will affect not only the climate but also energy security.
Policy recommendations
- Maintain long-term political commitment to the green transition
Leaders should ensure sustained political support for the green energy transition, even in times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty. This is not only necessary for managing climate change but also for creating resilience and security. Short-term policy shifts toward fossil-based solutions risk undermining both climate goals and energy security.
- Invest in grid infrastructure and system capacity
To fully benefit from renewable energy systems, countries must invest in electricity grid expansion, storage solutions, and system flexibility. Electrification will lead to a rise in energy demand. The right infrastructure is therefore crucial for energy security.
- Diversify energy systems to enhance resilience
Policymakers should invest in diversifying the energy sector. A combination of different energy sources will increase reliability and reduce vulnerability to disruptions. Countries overly dependent on a single energy source are more sensitive to external risks and market volatility.
Conclusion
Sweden’s renewable energy transition shows that energy security and climate policy are closely interconnected. By reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels and building a diversified, low-carbon energy system, Sweden has strengthened its resilience to geopolitical and market disruptions. However, this experience also highlights that such benefits depend on sustained political commitment and continued investment. For policymakers: the green transition is not only a necessity in times of climate change, but a strategic advantage for energy security.
References:
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European Commission. (2022). REPowerEU. European Commission. Retrived April 17, 2026 from: https://commission.europa.eu/topics/energy/repowereu_en
Government Offices of Sweden. (n.d.). Electricity production in Sweden. Retrieved March 16, 2026 from: https://www.regeringen.se/regeringens-politik/sveriges-elforsorjning/elproduktion-i-sverige/
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*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.
Written by:
Signe Ramberg,
AMEC member in Sweden