Category: Article

When the cloud lands

By Muad Zaki,

Director of Economic & Trade Policy at Asia Middle East Center (AMEC)

Malaysia’s data-centre boom may test not only its grid, but its politics.

The cloud has a habit of sounding lighter than it is.

Artificial intelligence is spoken of as if it floats somewhere above the economy. Cloud computing suggests something distant and weightless. Digital transformation is sold as clean, modern and almost frictionless. Yet the machinery behind this future is anything but weightless. It requires land, electricity, water, concrete, cooling systems, substations, diesel generators, security fences and roads strong enough for construction traffic.

The digital economy, in other words, has a very physical body.

Malaysia is now discovering this. Its data-centre boom has been welcomed as proof that the country is becoming a serious player in the regional technology race. Investment agencies speak of foreign direct investment, artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure and long-term spillovers. State governments see industrial momentum. Technology companies see a useful location close to Singapore, with cheaper land and room to grow.

There is truth in all this. A country that wants to compete in the age of artificial intelligence needs the infrastructure on which artificial intelligence runs. Servers must sit somewhere. Cables must land somewhere. Power must come from somewhere.

The question is not whether data centres are useful. They are. The question is whether Malaysia is pricing their politics correctly.

Data centres have an awkward feature. Their benefits are often national, abstract and delayed. Their costs are local, visible and immediate. The gains appear in investment statistics, technology strategies and corporate announcements. The irritations appear as dust on laundry, lorries on roads, anxiety over water and questions about electricity demand.

That gap is where politics begins.

In many countries, data centres arrived first as symbols of progress. They were promoted as the infrastructure of the future: job-creating, investment-attracting and innovation-friendly. Only later did the argument change. Communities began asking not whether the facilities were modern, but whether they were worth the resources they consumed. The cloud, once a metaphor for convenience, became a neighbour.

Malaysia would be wise to notice the pattern before it becomes local habit.

The country’s enthusiasm is understandable. Data centres fit the language of the moment. They are tied to artificial intelligence, digital services, fintech, cybersecurity and cloud computing. They allow leaders to speak about the future without seeming speculative. Unlike start-ups, they involve steel, land and large capital commitments. They are easy to photograph and easier to announce.

But headline investment is a poor substitute for public value.

A factory employing thousands of people has obvious politics. A port, a logistics hub or a tourism project creates visible chains of local activity. Workers are hired. Shops benefit. Transport firms gain business. Families can see where the money goes.

A data centre is harder to sell after the ribbon is cut. During construction it may create work. Once operating, however, many facilities are relatively quiet employers for their size and cost. The capital intensity is impressive. The labour intensity is not.

This does not make them bad investments. It makes them politically delicate ones.

Voters rarely think in terms of capital expenditure. They think in terms of household consequences. A billion-ringgit project that produces few visible local jobs but consumes water and electricity is not easily defended at a community meeting. Economists may speak of spillovers. Consultants may speak of ecosystems. Voters ask whether their children were hired.

This is the first danger for Malaysian politicians: mistaking an investment story for a constituency story.

The second is mistaking technological enthusiasm for public consent.

Most Malaysians use and welcome technology. They want better internet, smoother digital services, efficient banking, online commerce and modern government. But using technology is not the same as hosting its industrial infrastructure. People may like artificial intelligence in their phones and still dislike the idea of nearby facilities drawing heavily on water, land and power.

That is not backwardness. It is rational politics.

The public rarely objects to progress in the abstract. It objects when progress appears to send the benefits elsewhere and the burdens next door.

Johor offers an early warning. Its rise as a data-centre hub has brought attention and investment. It has also brought complaints about dust, pollution and water concerns. These are not yet a national backlash. But they are the kind of small signals that often precede larger political arguments. In other countries, the debate also began locally: a road here, a substation there, a water worry, a tax incentive, a noise complaint. Then the questions accumulated.

The most combustible issue may be water.

Electricity demand can be hidden inside technical language: grids, capacity, tariffs, generation mix. Water is harder to abstract. It enters kitchens, bathrooms, farms, schools and restaurants. If households come to believe that data centres are receiving secure access while ordinary users face pressure, the facts will have to fight the feeling. In politics, feeling often arrives first.

That is why the standard defence of data centres, though partly correct, is insufficient.

Industry advocates argue that data centres should not be judged merely by direct jobs. They point instead to long-term ecosystem benefits: artificial intelligence capabilities, cloud services, cybersecurity, supplier networks, skilled work and the attraction of future industries. This may be true. But politics runs on a different clock. An ecosystem may take ten years to mature. An election may be lost in five.

This timing problem matters. The costs of a project are often experienced early: construction, land-use change, utility anxiety, public incentives. The benefits may be diffuse and delayed. A technology cluster, if it emerges, may enrich firms and skilled workers far from the affected community. That does not mean the investment lacks value. It means the value may not be felt where the political cost is paid.

America and Ireland have already shown how quickly the mood can turn. Places that once competed for data centres now debate their power demand, land use, water consumption and tax treatment. The facilities did not suddenly become less digital. Residents simply began measuring them differently. What had been sold as national competitiveness was judged as local inconvenience.

Malaysia’s leaders should not read these examples as arguments for retreat. They should read them as warnings against laziness.

The lazy approach is to count investment announcements and call that strategy. The better approach is to ask what remains after the announcement: how many permanent local jobs, how much tax after incentives, how much water, how much electricity, how much local procurement, how much training, how much infrastructure cost, and how much public trust.

A project that cannot answer these questions may still be profitable. It may even be useful. But it is not yet politically safe.

This is the uncomfortable truth of the data-centre race. The countries that win may not be those that approve the most projects fastest. They may be those that learn to discriminate. Some data centres will be worth welcoming. Others may consume too much scarce resource for too little local return. A serious industrial policy must know the difference.

Malaysia has time to get this right. Its advantage is that others have made mistakes first. The choice is not between embracing the future and rejecting it. It is between governing the future and merely advertising it.

For politicians, the lesson is sharper still. Voters do not reward megawatts, server racks or investment memoranda. They reward visible improvements in ordinary life. If data centres bring skills, jobs, infrastructure and shared prosperity, they will become part of Malaysia’s success story. If they bring anxiety over bills, water and land while the benefits remain invisible, they will become someone’s campaign problem.

The cloud may be digital. The backlash will not be.


*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

By:

Muad Zaki,

Director of Economic & Trade Policy

at Asia Middle East Center (AMEC)

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What We Can Learn About Energy Security from Sweden’s Transition to Renewable Energy

Threats to global energy systems are on the rise. Geopolitical changes, attacks on energy infrastructure, and supply chain disruptions are currently threatening energy supplies worldwide. (IEA, n.d). With the latest events in the Middle East, the issue is highly relevant as the turbulent geopolitical situation affects oil supplies and risks energy prices to skyrocket (Russel, 2026).

Relying on fossil fuels leaves countries extremely sensitive to external factors such as supply disruptions and price volatility. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 shed light on the geopolitical aspects of energy supplies and accelerated the green transition in Europe. Sweden is a small country with a unique position. To meet its climate goals, Sweden has ensured that 98 percent of its electricity comes from low-carbon sources (The Swedish Government, 2023). Low-carbon energy refers to energy sources that produce low levels of greenhouse gas. Renewable energy comes from self-replenishing sources such as wind power and hydro power. The transformation is not only important for handling climate change but also a way of increasing resilience in a turbulent world.

This article examines how the Swedish energy system has contributed to its strategic resilience, the general geopolitical implications of a green transition, and what policymakers can learn from the Swedish case. 

Sweden’s energy system and strategic resilience

Sweden has a political and public consensus to achieve the net-zero goal by 2045 (IEA, 2024). Sweden’s green energy system provides a strong foundation for strategic resilience in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment. Sweden relies largely on domestically produced, low-carbon electricity, with hydropower, nuclear energy, and wind power, making it the EU leader in low-carbon electricity (Ember, 2026). This reduces dependence on imported fossil fuels and limits exposure to global supply disruptions and price volatility.

Sweden’s diversified energy structure also enhances energy reliability. Relying on multiple energy sources helps balance fluctuations in supply and demand, reducing the risk of large-scale disruptions. Different energy sources have different functions in a diversified system. Hydro power plays a key role by enabling storage and adjustment depending on demand, making it important for balancing the grid. Nuclear power helps provide a stable energy supply that is not easily affected by external factors. Wind power complements these energy sources by further contributing to the energy system at a low marginal cost. (IEA, n.d) Together, this diversified mix enhances energy security in the context of growing geopolitical tensions and increasing pressure on global energy markets. 

Opportunities of green transition

Last week, Brent crude oil prices rose 28 percent amid current events in the Middle East. Iranian attacks on oil facilities in the Gulf region and disrupted shipping routes have put energy security in many parts of the world at risk (CSIS, 2026). Countries able to produce reliable, non-fossil fuels on a large scale and reduce dependency on oil and gas exports are likely to gain a strategic advantage in the international system. 

The first pillar of energy security is availability. Green energy, mainly locally produced, reduces dependence on imported oil and gas, increasing the availability even in turbulent times. The transition of the energy sector can not be understood solely as a matter of climate change. It is also a matter of stability, security, and resilience.

The second pillar of energy security is reliability. Energy supplies are supposed to work without risk of disruptions such as war, sabotage, or natural disasters. One way to ensure this is by diversifying the energy sector. Sweden has a very diversified energy sector, with energy from wind to nuclear power. Also, an assured balanced energy supply, meaning that input equals output (Swedish Energy Agency, 2025). If one energy source is disrupted, the country can rely on another. The case of Sweden’s diversified energy sector can show how a multifaceted energy production can create greater resilience to external events and threats. 

The third pillar is affordability. Too high prices will affect households, the transport sector, industries, and economic growth. For this reason, an important part of energy security is keeping the prices down. Countries heavily dependent on oil and gas become, as mentioned earlier, extremely sensitive to price volatility. This issue is something we can see now when oil prices have increased due to the war in Iran, as well as when Russia fully invaded Ukraine in 2022. Renewable energy sources are produced locally and are, for this reason, less sensitive to the global market, resulting in more stable and predictable prices. 

Taken together, Sweden’s energy transition highlights how the shift toward renewable energy can simultaneously enhance availability, reliability, and affordability: three core pillars of energy security.

Sweden in the European Energy Security Context

As previously noted, energy security has gained relevance after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The European energy system was forced to adapt to a new geopolitical environment. Energy security became a topic at the forefront of policy discussion across the European Union. Shortly after the full invasion in 2022, the EU launched REPowerEU with the plan to phase out Russian fossil fuels. The project aims to save energy, produce clean energy and diversify the energy sector (European Commission, 2022). In this context, Sweden’s diversified and, to a large extent, clean energy system stands out as a model of resilience. 

Furthermore, regional energy cooperation provides an additional layer of stability that could be applied to the broader European context. Regional cooperation can further strengthen the resilience. It balances the supply and reduces the risk of domestic shortages. NordPool is a regional energy cooperation that started between Sweden and Norway and is now working as a cornerstone in the European energy market. They are promoting competition, price transparency, efficient electricity markets and the integration of renewables into the market (NordPool, n.d) 

Remaining challenges

Sweden serves as an archetype of a green transition and illustrates how it can benefit energy security. However, there are still challenges we need to take into consideration.

As industries and the transport sector shift toward electrification, energy demand increases rapidly. The supply must grow to potentially meet a doubling of electricity demand in the coming decades (IEA, 2024). Energy transition takes time, and there is a risk of falling behind demand.

Furthermore, Sweden is part of the EU, making it integrated in the European energy market. Energy prices will be affected by this, even though Sweden has a strong domestic supply of energy. For resilience to become stronger, other countries must take action towards an energy transition. 

Lastly, the green transition is dependent on policymakers. In a period of economic uncertainty and geopolitical threats, climate change seems to be less prioritized. Sweden will fail to meet its own and the EU’s climate goals by 2030 (SVT, 2025). Taking into consideration what has been discussed in this article, this will affect not only the climate but also energy security.  

Policy recommendations 

  1. Maintain long-term political commitment to the green transition

Leaders should ensure sustained political support for the green energy transition, even in times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty. This is not only necessary for managing climate change but also for creating resilience and security. Short-term policy shifts toward fossil-based solutions risk undermining both climate goals and energy security.

  1. Invest in grid infrastructure and system capacity

To fully benefit from renewable energy systems, countries must invest in electricity grid expansion, storage solutions, and system flexibility. Electrification will lead to a rise in energy demand. The right infrastructure is therefore crucial for energy security. 

  1. Diversify energy systems to enhance resilience 

Policymakers should invest in diversifying the energy sector. A combination of different energy sources will increase reliability and reduce vulnerability to disruptions. Countries overly dependent on a single energy source are more sensitive to external risks and market volatility. 

Conclusion

Sweden’s renewable energy transition shows that energy security and climate policy are closely interconnected. By reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels and building a diversified, low-carbon energy system, Sweden has strengthened its resilience to geopolitical and market disruptions. However, this experience also highlights that such benefits depend on sustained political commitment and continued investment. For policymakers: the green transition is not only a necessity in times of climate change, but a strategic advantage for energy security.

References: 

Center for Strategic and International Studies. (2026). What does the Iran war mean for global energy markets? Retrieved March 16, 2026 from: https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-does-iran-war-mean-global-energy-markets 

Ember. (2026). Sweden: Electricity data. Retrieved March 19, 2026 from: https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/sweden/  

European Commission. (2022). REPowerEU. European Commission. Retrived April 17, 2026 from: https://commission.europa.eu/topics/energy/repowereu_en 

Government Offices of Sweden. (n.d.). Electricity production in Sweden. Retrieved March 16, 2026 from: https://www.regeringen.se/regeringens-politik/sveriges-elforsorjning/elproduktion-i-sverige/ 

International Energy Agency. (n.d). Energy security – Reliable, affordable access to all fuels and energy sources. Retrieved March 16, 2026 from: https://www.iea.org/topics/energy-security 

International Energy Agency. (2024). Sweden 2024: Executive summary. Retrieved March 19, 2026 from: https://www.iea.org/reports/sweden-2024/executive-summary 

Nord Pool. (n.d.). About us. Nord Pool. Retrived April 17 from:  https://www.nordpoolgroup.com/en/About-us/ 

SVT Nyheter. (2025). Sverige missar sina egna och EU:s klimatmål – framtida generationer får betala. Retrieved March 19, 2026 from: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/sverige-missar-sina-egna-och-eus-klimatmal-framtida-generationer-far-betala 

Swedish Energy Agency. (n.d.). An energy system in balance. Retrieved March 16, 2026 from: https://www.energimyndigheten.se/en/facts-and-figures/swedens-energy-system–an-overview/how-the-energy-system-works/an-energy-system-in-balance/ 

Russel, C. (2026). Iran war hits refined fuels harder than crude and importers need to act. Reuters. Retrieved March 16, 2026 from:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/iran-war-hits-refined-fuels-harder-than-crude-importers-need-act-2026-03-16


*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

Written by:

Signe Ramberg,

AMEC member in Sweden

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Tourism Isn’t Collapsing—But the Model Is

By Muad Zaki, Senior Fellow at Asia Middle East Center (AMEC)

Global tourism is not disappearing. But the conditions that sustained it over the past two decades are shifting in ways policymakers can no longer ignore.

Travel behaviour is changing. Decisions are becoming more sensitive to perceived risk that is shaped not only by cost or convenience, but by geopolitical uncertainty and a broader sense of instability linked to recent tensions in the Middle East. For many travellers, long-haul leisure trips are no longer routine. They are conditional.

The implications are becoming clearer. Short-haul and regional travel are holding firm, in some cases strengthening, while long-haul discretionary travel is becoming more selective. This shift is driven less by policy than by perception, and perception tends to move faster than official reassurances.

For economies built on high volumes of short-stay international arrivals, particularly from distant markets, this creates structural exposure. What was once primarily a demand question is now also a connectivity question of whether travellers can move as easily, as predictably, and at the same cost as before.

Early signals from the aviation sector point in one direction. Airlines across Asia and Europe have begun adjusting schedules in response to tightening jet fuel supplies and rising operational uncertainty linked to Middle East tensions. Routes are being rerouted, capacity trimmed, and in some cases, flights reduced not only due to cost pressures, but because of constraints on fuel availability and logistics. Increasingly, carriers are planning for disruption rather than assuming stability.

These adjustments are not abstract. Reduced flight frequency, longer routing times, and higher operational costs feed directly into ticket prices and traveller decisions. For long-haul destinations, even small increases in friction—financial or psychological—can shift demand elsewhere.

Few countries illustrate this exposure more clearly than the Maldives.

Its tourism model has been highly effective under stable global conditions, attracting long-haul visitors willing to travel significant distances for short, high-value stays. But that same model depends on something less visible: confidence in global mobility and the reliability of long-distance travel networks. When either becomes uncertain, whether due to geopolitical tensions, fuel supply disruptions, or shifting airline strategies, the impact is immediate.

For a country such as the Maldives, where tourism underpins foreign exchange earnings and a large share of government revenue, this creates a specific form of vulnerability. A decline in arrivals does not remain contained within the tourism sector. It feeds directly into fiscal pressure, currency dynamics, and broader economic activity. The issue is not tourism itself, but concentration. Even moderate disruptions can produce outsized domestic effects.

In this context, even incremental adjustments that broaden the base of longer-term economic participation—alongside tourism—may help reduce volatility without undermining the sector’s core strengths.

This pattern extends beyond small island economies. Across parts of Southeast Asia, tourism has long been central to growth strategies, particularly in destinations such as Thailand and Indonesia. These economies are more diversified, but they are not insulated from shifts in global travel behaviour or from disruptions in the aviation networks that sustain it.

What distinguishes the current moment is not simply disruption, but the convergence of risks. Travelers are more sensitive to geopolitical developments. Airlines are operating with greater caution. Energy supply chains are under strain. Together, these pressures are beginning to reshape the assumptions on which tourism-dependent growth models rely.

Previous crises, from financial downturns to the COVID-19 pandemic, were treated as temporary interruptions. Tourism paused, then resumed. The expectation was continuity.

That reality  now looks less certain.

Tourism is unlikely to disappear, but it is being recalibrated into becoming more regional, more selective, and less predictable.

Demand is not vanishing. It is shifting.

A growing share of global mobility is no longer defined by short-term visitors alone. Remote workers, digital professionals with foreign income, and a broader class of mobile residents are becoming more visible across destinations. While still smaller in absolute numbers, this segment has expanded significantly in recent years.

Their economic role differs in important ways. Instead of concentrated, one-off spending, their contribution unfolds over time through housing, services, education, and daily consumption.

A less visible constraint, however, sits beneath this shift, one rooted in political incentives.

In many developing economies, policy attention gravitates toward what is visible. Large-scale tourism investments—resorts, airports, flagship infrastructure—offer immediate political value. They are tangible, high-profile, and easily communicated as progress.

The alternative is quieter. Long-term residents and small-scale foreign entrepreneurs do not arrive in a single announcement. Their impact accumulates gradually through sustained demand for housing, services, and local businesses.

The imbalance is structural. Policy frameworks tend to privilege what is politically visible over what is economically stabilizing.

For policymakers across ASEAN, this distinction is becoming harder to ignore. Economic strategies that generate continuous, widely distributed benefits are more likely to be experienced directly by voters—even if they lack the visibility of large-scale projects.

Malaysia is well-positioned within this shift. Its cost structure, infrastructure, and relative stability make it competitive not only as a destination, but as a place to live and work.

The more fundamental issue is how success is measured. Tourism policy continues to prioritize arrival numbers, a metric that captures volume, but not depth.

A more relevant measure is duration and participation: how long people stay, and how they engage economically while they are there.

This shift does not require abandoning tourism. It calls for rebalancing it.

Tourism itself is not in decline, but the model that once made it reliably expandable is becoming less certain.

For countries that remain heavily dependent on short-stay, long-haul arrivals, that uncertainty translates into exposure—not only to demand cycles, but to the operational realities of global transport and energy systems. For those able to adapt, it presents an opportunity to rethink how external income enters the economy.

In Malaysia’s case, this raises a more fundamental question. Existing frameworks such as the Malaysia My Second Home (MM2H) programme were designed for a different phase of global mobility, where which long-term residency was tied primarily to wealth thresholds and retirement migration. That model still has value, but it no longer fully captures the direction in which global movement is evolving.

What is emerging instead is a more fluid form of economic participation, where individuals are not necessarily relocating permanently, but are no longer strictly visitors. They move between countries, maintain foreign income streams, and integrate economically over time without fitting traditional categories of tourist, investor, or immigrant.

The strategic opportunity lies in recognizing this shift early. Rather than relying solely on legacy frameworks, policy can begin to accommodate a broader spectrum of economic residents whose contribution is continuous, location-flexible, and less dependent on traditional investment thresholds.

For policymakers, the distinction is increasingly clear. The question is no longer only how to attract visitors, but how to position the country within a global system where people and their income are becoming more mobile, selective, and sensitive to stability.

The shift is already underway. The countries that respond early will not simply compete for tourism, but they will shape the next phase of geo-economic participation.

*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

Mr. Muad M Zaki   

Senior Fellow

WRITTEN BY:

Muad Zaki
Director of Democracy & Transparency Initiative,
AMEC
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Beware the Siren Song of Peace: Board of Peace and the US’s Strings

By: Abel Josafat Manullang

The war in Gaza has been a bloody chapter in the Middle East’s recent development, given how long and how severe the destruction has been. Following the ceasefire back in late 2025, President Trump introduced yet another initiative to oversee the post-war reconstruction of Gaza. That initiative, known as the Board of Peace, would make its debut in January 2026 in Switzerland.

The Board of Peace was set to be an international oversight body comprised of the US and other states. A look at the logo provides some semblance to that of the United Nations, albeit with a US-centered map.

One of the driving forces behind its creation is President Trump’s disappointment with the United Nations’ incapacity to live up to its potential in protecting the peace and security of the world. That potential can be seen in the many bodies within the United Nations, as well as conventions and efforts it has spearheaded across various fields.

That sentiment is somewhat amplified by the body’s failure to end numerous conflicts in the last few years alone, ranging from the war in Gaza to the war in Ukraine, and many other conflicts across the globe. With such a noble goal of peace in its name, not to mention the severe destruction in Gaza, such an initiative should be welcomed to set the stage for the reconstruction and recovery of the people.

However, it is important to note the source of this very initiative, Washington, and the way in which it has acted on the global stage. Hence, akin to the siren songs that sailors might hear, could this initiative from the giant be the light at the end of the tunnel or another pitfall to avoid?

A Stage for Escalations

Given the primacy that Washington holds in the Board of Peace, it is important to assess its recent undertaking abroad. This can be seen in its entanglements in various conflicts, primarily in the Middle East.

Washington has stood in Israel’s beck and call across the many bloody chapters of the war in Gaza. It has shielded Israel from international condemnations and provided Israel with the wherewithal, both funds and arms, to enact its aggressions. Beyond the ground confrontation in Gaza, it has helped Israel against the threat of the Houthi and Iran in both diplomatic and military senses. In short, it would go the distance to ensure Israel got the leeway to carry out its interests.

Fast forward to the first quarter of 2026, and we have witnessed new aggressions carried out by the US, especially in the Middle East, particularly against Iran. As if the 2025 12-day War was not enough, it again raised the ante by initiating another attack on Iran with Israel. 

Now, the international community has to suffer the consequences as Iran closed the Hormuz Strait, which brought to the table fear of energy shortage, considering the waterway’s importance for international trade.

Setting aside the severe damage it caused and who has suffered, which includes Washington’s allies, those strides showcase the unilateral and capricious nature of Washington. Among others, it shows how the US is willing to shove aside international laws, norms, and the interests of other states, including its allies, for the sake of its own interests or those it deems to be in line with it.

With the so-called Board of Peace’s initiator being active in the escalations, it warrants a critical examination of its purpose. Is it a noble initiative or just a siren song to lure unsuspecting states into supporting Washington’s interests?

The Board of Peace: Hope in Jeopardy?

The unilateral nature and the way the Board of Peace is set, along with the recent strides Washington took, should have been some notable cautionary signs of what is to come from the initiative. 

To begin with, it is important to note the US-centric nature of the board. This can be seen in the exhortation on the US president’s role as the chairman who holds enormous sway in the board’s decision-making. 

The US-centric nature, along with the growing capricious tendency of Washington, especially in resorting to drastic measures, should serve as a warning to those who seek to join it. The combination of the aforementioned traits suggests that the board is less of a multilateral institution than a unilateral one.

While it cannot be denied that the stated goal of the board is beneficial, one cannot turn a blind eye to the way it is done on Washington’s terms. It is even more difficult to work one’s way around, given the sheer power Washington holds and its considerably untrammelled approach.

Such a condition does not mean that the international community should simply accept any initiative Washington proposes, rather, it invites a more critical understanding of its implications and the leeway that can be used solely for Washington’s interests. 

Previous examples have shown how Washington doesn’t ponder too long when it comes to dishing out punitive measures, but states must consider the long-term strategic repercussions of relying on the increasingly capricious Washington. Hence, the international community will need to undergo some growing pains; they need to grin and bear it as they readjust their respective compass.

All things considered, every state must take a more critical approach in assessing Washington’s offers and strides. While an outright rejection or isolation from Washington is not viable, staying vigilant of Washington’s change of heart remains more important than ever. 

Amidst the many intricate developments in the international system, the last thing everyone wants is another false signpost that would misguide them even more. 


*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

About the writer: 

Abel Josafat Manullang is a writer at SiPalingHI! Media and a researcher of the Research Development House. He has developed numerous works surrounding maritime security and regional dynamics of Southeast Asia and other regions, which can be accessed through his Google Scholar page. 

 

Abel’s Instagram:
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How the Middle East Crisis Highlights the Importance of ASEAN’s Strategic Autonomy

By Muad Zaki,

Senior Fellow at Asia Middle East Center

The latest escalation in the Middle East offers an important reminder that modern conflicts rarely remain confined to the region in which they begin. In an era of globalized transportation networks, interconnected supply chains, and expanding military alliances, regional wars can rapidly produce worldwide consequences.

The recent confrontation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran demonstrates how quickly these ripple effects can emerge. Within days of the escalation, airspace closures across much of the Middle East disrupted one of the world’s most critical aviation corridors linking Europe and Asia. Airlines were forced to reroute or cancel thousands of flights, leaving passengers stranded and driving up travel costs across long-haul routes.

For Southeast Asia, such disruptions carry immediate implications. The Middle East serves as a major transit hub connecting European travelers with tourism destinations across ASEAN. When these routes are interrupted, the economic consequences spread quickly through the region’s tourism sector, aviation industry, and broader service economy.

Beyond these economic disruptions, the crisis also raises deeper questions about how military alliances and foreign basing arrangements can expand the scope of conflicts far beyond their original geography.

International Law and the Expansion of Conflict

Under the United Nations Charter, the use of force between states is generally prohibited except in cases of self-defense. Article 51 recognizes the inherent right of states to respond militarily if they believe they have been subjected to an armed attack.

Once a state invokes this right, however, the geographic scope of confrontation can expand quickly. If military operations are supported through infrastructure located in allied countries — including foreign bases, intelligence facilities or logistical hubs — those installations may become part of the operational landscape of retaliation.

This dynamic helps explain how regional conflicts can widen beyond their original battlefield. When military alliances involve shared infrastructure and operational support across multiple countries, retaliation may extend to facilities located outside the territory of the primary belligerents.

For Southeast Asia, this legal and strategic dynamic is particularly relevant. As security cooperation with extra-regional powers expands, infrastructure located within ASEAN states could become increasingly integrated into wider military architectures. In a major power confrontation, such integration may expose countries in the region to escalation risks that originate far beyond Southeast Asia.

Immediate Economic Ripple Effects

While the legal debates surrounding the conflict continue, the economic consequences were visible almost immediately.

Airspace closures across parts of the Gulf forced airlines to divert flights around the conflict zone, increasing travel times, raising fuel costs, and reducing flight capacity across long-distance routes.

Within days, global travel markets reacted. Airlines canceled flights, ticket prices increased, and tourism operators began warning of potential slowdowns in international travel.

For Southeast Asia, these disruptions are particularly significant. Tourism-dependent economies such as Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore rely heavily on visitors from Europe and the Middle East. When flights between these regions are disrupted, tourism flows decline and hospitality industries quickly feel the impact.

Maritime trade has also been affected. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints for both energy supplies and international trade. Rising tensions in the region have already prompted shipping companies to reassess routes and increase insurance premiums for vessels operating in the area.

For export-oriented Asian economies, disruptions to global logistics networks translate into higher transportation costs, delayed shipments, and increased uncertainty in supply chains.

In short, a regional military confrontation can rapidly produce global economic consequences.

Strategic Implications for ASEAN

For ASEAN policymakers, the deeper lesson from the Middle East crisis concerns the long-term risks associated with alliance structures and foreign military basing arrangements.

Southeast Asia has historically pursued a strategy of strategic neutrality. By avoiding deep alignment with competing geopolitical blocs, ASEAN has been able to maintain regional stability while engaging economically with multiple major powers.

This balancing strategy has allowed ASEAN states to benefit from economic ties with China while maintaining security cooperation with the United States and other partners.

However, neutrality can erode gradually.

Security agreements often begin as limited cooperation—joint military exercises, maritime patrols, or defense dialogues. Over time, these arrangements can evolve into deeper military integration involving expanded basing access, intelligence infrastructure, and logistical networks.

Once foreign military infrastructure becomes embedded within national territory, a country’s strategic autonomy may begin to narrow. In the event of conflict between major powers, such facilities could become integrated into broader military operations.

The Middle East crisis illustrates how quickly these dynamics can unfold. Within just days, the consequences of the conflict spread beyond the battlefield, affecting global travel networks, shipping routes, and economic markets.

For Southeast Asia, this underscores the risks associated with becoming structurally embedded within the military architectures of external powers.

Policy Advice for ASEAN

The unfolding crisis in the Middle East highlights the importance of preserving ASEAN’s strategic autonomy in an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment.

First, ASEAN governments should carefully reassess deeper participation in U.S.-led security arrangements that could gradually embed the region within external military architectures. While security cooperation may offer short-term benefits, foreign basing arrangements or operational military partnerships may expose ASEAN states to greater risks if conflicts between major powers escalate.

Second, ASEAN policymakers should review the region’s structural dependence on access to the U.S. consumer market. In an era where economic relations are increasingly shaped by geopolitical considerations, particularly as Washington’s Middle East policy remains closely aligned with Israel, overreliance on a single external market may create long-term strategic vulnerabilities.

Third, ASEAN should strengthen regional resilience by diversifying both its economic partnerships and its security dialogues. Greater engagement with neighboring powers, including China, alongside stronger intra-ASEAN economic integration, may provide a more balanced foundation for regional stability.

At the same time, ASEAN policymakers must recognize that threat perceptions within the region are not uniform. Several member states remain primarily concerned with maritime disputes in the South China Sea, while others place greater emphasis on maintaining neutrality amid intensifying major-power rivalry.

Recent developments in the Middle East also illustrate how the strategic priorities of external powers can shift during crises. In the current confrontation involving Israel and Iran, U.S. military resources have been deployed primarily to defend Israel and support Israeli security operations, even as tensions across the Gulf have raised concerns among Washington’s traditional regional partners. This dynamic highlights the reality that the security priorities of external powers are ultimately shaped by their own alliances and geopolitical calculations.

For ASEAN, these developments underscore the importance of reassessing long-standing assumptions about external security guarantees. Strengthening regional cooperation and maintaining strategic autonomy within Asia may provide a more stable foundation for Southeast Asian security than reliance on external powers whose priorities can change rapidly during international crises.

Preserving ASEAN’s long-standing strategic autonomy will require careful calibration of external partnerships so that Southeast Asia remains a center of stability rather than a frontline in great-power rivalry.

*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

Mr. Muad M Zaki   

Senior Fellow

WRITTEN BY:

Muad Zaki
Director of Democracy & Transparency Initiative,
AMEC
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From Ukraine to Taiwan: Why ASEAN Must Prepare for the Next Phase of Great-Power Proxy Politics

By Muad M Zaki. 

Senior Fellow, Asia Middle East Center 

The conflict in Ukraine did not emerge in a vacuum. It was preceded by years of legislative positioning, security assistance, narrative framing, and political signalling that incrementally narrowed diplomatic space and hardened opposing camps. Today, similar instruments are being assembled in the Indo-Pacific, —this time around Taiwan.

For ASEAN governments, the danger is not limited to a potential cross-Strait crisis. The greater strategic risk lies in how intensified U.S.–China competition may instrumentalise Southeast Asia internally, weakening ASEAN cohesion through political fragmentation, selective alignment, and domestic interference. For Chinese policymakers, this trajectory signals that as more Western states diversify or recalibrate their strategic ties toward China, Washington’s incentives to fracture regional unity where it lacks control will only grow.

The Ukraine Precedent: Escalation Without a Single Trigger

Ukraine demonstrates how a major power conflict can be cultivated without an immediate casus belli. Long before February 2022, Ukraine had already become embedded in a web of external security cooperation, military training programs, arms transfers, sanctions regimes, and diplomatic commitments that made neutrality increasingly untenable.

Crucially, escalation occurred through policy architecture, not sudden decisions. Legislative acts, multilateral coordination mechanisms, and political signalling created an environment in which confrontation became structurally likely,—even  if not inevitable.

This pattern matters because it shows how proxy dynamics are not accidental; they are built.

Taiwan as the Next Structural Flashpoint

Taiwan is now being positioned within a similar architecture. U.S. congressional initiatives, security cooperation frameworks, and strategic communications increasingly treat Taiwan less as a status-quo issue and more as a forward line in a broader containment strategy aimed at China.

This concern is not confined to analysts. In opposing the PROTECT Taiwan Act, Thomas Massie warned that such legislation mirrors the type of commitments discussed prior to the Ukraine war and risks drawing the United States into another foreign conflict through pre-commitment rather than deliberation.

For Beijing, Taiwan is an internal issue that has been deliberately internationalised. For Washington, Taiwan is increasingly framed as a test case for credibility, deterrence, and alliance leadership. These framings are fundamentally incompatible, —and that incompatibility generates risk for the entire region.


Why ASEAN Is Strategically Exposed

ASEAN’s vulnerability does not stem from weakness, but from centrality. As U.S. strategic focus shifts toward Asia, Southeast Asia becomes both a prize and a pressure point.

Three dynamics deserve particular attention:

Political Fragmentation as Strategy

Where direct control is limited, influence often shifts inward and—toward shaping domestic political outcomes. Support for particular political factions, civil society groups, media narratives, or elite networks can gradually polarise societies along external alignment lines. Over time, this erodes ASEAN’s consensus-based decision-making model from within.

Selective Alignment Pressure

As individual ASEAN states deepen economic or strategic ties with China, external pressure will likely increase to pull them back into competitive blocs. This pressure may not take the form of overt coercion, but rather conditional partnerships, reputational framing, and internal political leverage.

Intelligence and Information Vulnerability

Foreign interference today rarely resembles Cold War espionage. It operates through influence operations, funding channels, narrative amplification, and regulatory pressure points. Without coordinated counter-interference frameworks, ASEAN states risk becoming laboratories for proxy competition.

The Canada Signal —and Why It Matters

Recent recalibrations by countries such as Canada and other traditional U.S. partners toward deeper engagement with China—particularly on trade, climate, and multilateral diplomacy—carry an unintended consequence: they reduce Washington’s leverage within its traditional alliance network.

Historically, when external alignment space narrows, competitive powers compensate by seeking advantage in regions where institutional cohesion is weaker or contested. ASEAN, by virtue of its diversity and non-alignment tradition, becomes a natural target.

For ASEAN policymakers, this means that external rivalry may increasingly manifest as internal stress rather than external confrontation.

Implications for Chinese Policymakers

For Beijing, the lesson of Ukraine is not simply about military escalation; it is about how political ecosystems are shaped long before conflict begins. As China’s global partnerships expand—including with Western middle powers—U.S. strategy is likely to focus less on direct containment and more on preventing the consolidation of alternative regional orders.

ASEAN unity, particularly when economically integrated with China, represents such an alternative.

This suggests that China’s long-term interests aligns with ASEAN institutional resilience, non-interference norms, and regional autonomy —rather than accelerated bloc politics that could legitimise external intervention.

What ASEAN Governments Should Do Now

This is not a call for alignment, but for strategic self-defence.

ASEAN governments should consider:

  1. Strengthening internal cohesion mechanisms
    Reinforce ASEAN’s consensus model and resist bilateral arrangements that undermine regional unity.
  2. Enhancing counter-interference capacity
    Intelligence services must adapt from counter-espionage to counter-influence through— tracking political funding, narrative coordination, and external leverage operations.
  3. Preserving strategic ambiguity collectively
    Neutrality is most credible when exercised as a bloc, not as individual states under pressure.
  4. Separating economic cooperation from security rivalry
    ASEAN should continue engaging all major powers economically while insulating domestic political processes from external strategic agendas.

Policy Recommendation

Ukraine shows the cost of becoming the arena through which great powers manage rivalry. Taiwan risks becoming the next test case. ASEAN must ensure it does not become the silent third.

The choice facing Southeast Asia is not between Washington and Beijing, but between regional autonomy and strategic fragmentation. Autonomy requires unity, vigilance, and the insulation of domestic politics from external influence, regardless of its source.

History is clear: proxy conflicts rarely begin with war, yet—and rarely end where they start.

*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

Mr. Muad M Zaki   

Senior Fellow

WRITTEN BY:

Muad Zaki
Director of Democracy & Transparency Initiative,
AMEC
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Example of Force: The United States and What Lies Ahead for ASEAN

By Abel Josafat Manullang
The international system we live in now has witnessed numerous tumultuous chapters in the past year alone. From the development in the Middle East to the ongoing war in Eastern Europe, one giant was present through it all: the United States.

Recently, the US has embarked on some voyages that caused ripples across the globe. The unilateral tariffs and the following transactional diplomacy that followed are the harbingers of what is to come from the US under its new administration.

However, these unilateral moves do not exclusively revolve around trade activities. The recent capture of Venezuela president in its own national territory and the recent blockade on Cuba’s oil access demonstrated just how unrestrained the US can be in advancing its interests.

These moves from the US signify a change in its approach to its pursuit of interests. It demonstrates how selective the US has come to value the many international institutions it has spearheaded and stood by in the past. In other words, it now relies on its example of force as opposed to the force of its example. 

To add to this, the capriciousness of the US is also important to note, primarily in the way it defines its interests and security, which may result in abandonment of its past commitments. With such a giant on the horizon, not to mention one that many states have developed a reliance on, it will inevitably force changes to the way they manage their ties with the US.

The heart of the Indo-Pacific: ASEAN and Southeast Asia

The capricious nature of the US causes concerns for many states, including here in Southeast Asia. Other writers have posited that the same fate that befell Venezuela can also manifest in Southeast Asia. There exist some holes that can be poked by the US should it find the region and the timing fitting for its interests. This is further amplified by how some states there have leaned closer to either the US or China.

When talking about Southeast Asia, one cannot dismiss its regional bloc, ASEAN, which has witnessed various developments both internally and externally. For the former, ASEAN has come to cater to new fields in which the interests of its member states lie. The same goes for the latter, as it bridges its member states’ interests with those of the external partners. As a result, it is no surprise that ASEAN has come to have its centrality in the region.

While ASEAN’s centrality can still be felt with its vast network of partners, ASEAN must navigate the future with extreme caution in the strategic landscape. It is true that the US has its attention on accentuating its presence in the Western Hemisphere, but one cannot eliminate its presence in the Indo-Pacific as its object of interest, especially given the strong show of force it has there.

To add it up, its recent moves can be seen as warning shots for everyone, including Southeast Asia as the heart of the Indo-Pacific, that the US would take a no-holds-barred approach in pursuing its interests or responding to anyone it deems as a threat. For this, as Hoang Thi Ha and Aries A. Arugay note, it is important for the region to overcome its vulnerabilities lest the US use it as a pretext to accentuate its presence in the region. While the prior Cambodia-Thailand conflict was not used as a pretext for something akin to Venezuela’s case, the capricious nature of the US makes it best to reduce any leeway that can be capitalized.

Amidst the presence of a capricious and powerful giant, ASEAN’s relevance and centrality will be tested. This puts in more considerations, given the already enormous attention the region has received, specifically from the US and China. For all of China’s far-reaching presence, one cannot discount the presence and influence the US has as a Pacific power. To this end, ASEAN needs to maintain its centrality hand in hand with that of the US, considering the interconnectedness they share.

Additionally, ASEAN also needs to bolster its ties with its other partners. For this, ASEAN can benefit from the many strategic partnerships it has developed over the decades. They can serve as the foundation for more diversified ties that can cushion any tumults that emerge from the unilateral strides of the US or other partners. Such a feat is not only something that won’t cause alarm, given ASEAN’s record, but it also resonates with its other partners who seek to diversify their ties.

Now, with the long road ahead in 2026, ASEAN and its member states must brace themselves for the volatile landscape before them. Against such a rough sea, the states of Southeast Asia have the choice to use ASEAN as the very forum to harmonize and synergize their strides. Afterall, for all its shortcomings, ASEAN still has countless things to offer. However, it can only be materialized provided the member states have the willingness to navigate through their differences.

The fork in the road will then open the door for the question of whether ASEAN persist and maintains its cohesion as a regional bloc or will it succumb to the force of the great powers. The answer to this question will show itself over the coming months and years.


*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

About the writer:

Abel Josafat Manullang is a writer at SiPalingHI! Media and a researcher of the Research Development House. He has developed numerous works surrounding maritime security and regional dynamics of Southeast Asia and other regions, which can be accessed through his Google Scholar page. Instagram: instagram.com/abel_jman

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The Kurdish Question in the Middle East: A Comparative Perspective

By Beatrice Liverzani:

The Kurdish political landscape is shaped by a complex and evolving pursuit of self-governance across four states—Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran—each of which presents distinct political, legal, and historical conditions. Despite shared linguistic and cultural markers, Kurdish political trajectories have diverged significantly, reflecting the interaction between post-imperial state formation, regional security considerations, and international legal norms as described by Gunter, (2014).

Historical Roots and the Absence of Kurdish Statehood

Kurdish aspirations for self-determination emerged prominently in the aftermath of the First World War, influenced by international principles such as Wilson’s Fourteen Points and early post-Ottoman treaties. The Treaty of Sèvres (1920) initially envisaged the possibility of Kurdish autonomy, while the Treaty of Lausanne (1923) ultimately consolidated the territorial integrity of the new Turkish Republic and neighbouring states, effectively excluding Kurdish claims from the emerging international order (Gunter, 2014).

From the perspective of international law, this settlement embedded a structural constraint on Kurdish secession. The principle of territorial integrity became dominant, while external self-determination remained applicable primarily to decolonisation contexts. As a result, Kurdish claims were subsumed within the sovereignty of existing states, leaving autonomy and minority rights as the primary—though uneven—avenues for political recognition.

From a diplomatic standpoint, the post-Lausanne order did more than delimit borders; it institutionalised a regional norm that external actors have been reluctant to disrupt. Even major powers that have tactically cooperated with Kurdish actors, such as the United States in Iraq and Syria, have stopped short of endorsing Kurdish statehood. This reflects a broader international consensus: while minority protections may be encouraged, redrawing borders in the Middle East risks cascading instability. Thus, Kurdish aspirations are evaluated not only through legal doctrine but also through geopolitical risk calculus.

For regional governments, Kurdish self-determination is not viewed in isolation. It is perceived through the prism of precedent. Any concession that resembles secession could embolden parallel claims elsewhere, whether ethnic, sectarian, or regional. Diplomatically, this creates a shared, even if rarely coordinated, interest among Ankara, Baghdad, Damascus, and Tehran in preventing full Kurdish independence, even when their bilateral relations remain adversarial.

Iraq: Institutionalised Autonomy Without Sovereignty

Among the four scenarios, Iraq represents the most evolved form of Kurdish self-rule. Since the establishment of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in the early 1990s, Iraqi Kurds have exercised a substantial degree of de facto autonomy. This process was later consolidated following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, which reshaped the country’s political system and formally recognised the Kurdistan Region within a federal framework. As Gunter (2014) argues, under the leadership of Masoud Barzani, who served as President of the Kurdistan Region from 2005 to 2017, the KRG expanded its institutional capacity, consolidating authority over regional governance, education, and security forces, including the Peshmerga.

This autonomy, however, has been shaped by internal political divisions, particularly the 1994 civil war between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which exposed the challenges of Kurdish political fragmentation and competing centres of authority within the region (Gunter, 2014). Moreover, Kurdish identity within Iraq has historically occupied an ambivalent position in national narratives. As reflected in Iraqi Arabic-language literature, Kurdish experiences were often marginalised or portrayed as peripheral to Iraqi national identity, reinforcing perceptions of Kurds as outsiders or potential challenges to state unity (Zeidel, 2011).

Despite post-1991 political transformations and increased engagement between Arab and Kurdish regions, Kurdish representation in Iraqi cultural and political discourse remains uneven. According to Zeidel (2011), this suggests that while autonomy has been institutionalised at the political and administrative level, it has not fully translated into broader societal integration within the Iraqi national framework.

From a diplomatic perspective, the Iraqi case demonstrates the outer limits of what the international system is currently willing to tolerate. The 2017 Kurdish independence referendum illustrated this boundary clearly. Despite strong domestic support within the Kurdistan Region, regional states uniformly opposed the move, and international actors declined to recognise the outcome. Baghdad’s reassertion of authority over disputed territories, including Kirkuk, proceeded without meaningful external resistance.

This episode underscores a critical diplomatic lesson: autonomy may be negotiated, but sovereignty remains guarded by both regional consensus and international inertia. The Kurdistan Regional Government today operates within a delicate equilibrium—leveraging energy diplomacy, foreign investment, and security partnerships, while avoiding steps that would trigger collective regional pushback.

Turkey: Identity, Security, and Contested Integration

In Turkey, the Kurdish question has been primarily framed as an issue of national unity and internal security. As Loizides (2010) notes, Kurdish national identity developed comparatively late, shaped by geographic dispersion, internal fragmentation, and prolonged state policies aimed at linguistic and cultural homogenisation. The Turkish state’s Kemalist ideology historically denied the existence of distinct ethnic identities, restricting Kurdish language use and political expression, which paradoxically contributed to the consolidation of Kurdish ethnic consciousness (Loizides, 2010).

Kurdish political movements in Turkey have adopted varied strategies, ranging from armed resistance to political participation and civil society mobilisation. Influenced by Abdullah Öcalan’s concept of Democratic Confederalism, segments of the Kurdish movement have articulated alternatives to statehood, advocating decentralised governance, cultural recognition, and participatory democracy without formal secession (Gunter, 2014).

From a realist perspective, Turkey’s response reflects a prioritisation of territorial integrity and regime security. Loizides (2010) observes that while limited political openings, such as EU-related reforms, diaspora media, and legal changes, have facilitated expressions of Kurdish identity, Kurdish demands continue to be assessed through a security lens, constraining institutional accommodation. 

However, realism alone does not fully capture Ankara’s evolving calculations. Turkey’s Kurdish policy is also shaped by its external diplomatic positioning—particularly relations with the European Union, NATO allies, and neighbouring Syria and Iraq. Periods of reform have often coincided with moments when Ankara sought to project democratic credentials internationally. Conversely, heightened security operations have tended to align with domestic political consolidation and regional instability.

Diplomatically, Turkey seeks to prevent the internationalisation of its Kurdish issue. It resists framing the matter as one of minority rights subject to external adjudication and instead asserts sovereign jurisdiction. This approach reflects a broader regional sensitivity: once internal identity conflicts become items on international diplomatic agendas, external leverage increases. Hence, Ankara’s consistent effort to define the issue primarily through a counterterrorism framework rather than as one of self-determination.

Syria: De Facto Autonomy and Recent Developments

In Syria, Kurdish political space expanded significantly during the civil war, as Kurdish-led administrations established de facto autonomous governance structures aligned with Democratic Confederalist principles (Gunter, 2014). These arrangements prioritised local councils, gender equality, and cultural recognition, while formally rejecting statehood claims.

Recent developments suggest a shift in the Syrian state’s approach. In 2026, Damascus issued a decree granting citizenship to stateless Kurds, recognising Kurdish as a national language and signalling an attempt to reintegrate Kurdish populations within a reconstituted state framework (Al Jazeera, 2026). These steps have taken place amid shifting military and diplomatic circumstances, including cooperation with Russia, and reflect the incorporation of Kurdish governance arrangements into broader processes of national consolidation.

The Syrian case introduces an additional diplomatic complexity: Kurdish actors have emerged not merely as domestic stakeholders but as intermediaries within broader geopolitical competition. Their cooperation with U.S.-led forces as local security partners, subsequent negotiations with Damascus, and tactical coordination with Russia illustrate how sub-state actors can acquire strategic relevance beyond their demographic weight.

Yet this relevance remains conditional. External powers have supported Kurdish-led administrations insofar as they serve immediate security objectives. Long-term political recognition, however, remains contingent upon reconciliation with central state authority. This reinforces a pattern observable across the region: Kurdish leverage increases during moments of state fragmentation but contracts as central governments reconstitute control.

Comparative Observations

Across all four cases, Kurdish political trajectories reflect the limits imposed by international norms, regional power balances, and domestic state structures. While Iraq demonstrates the possibility of sustained autonomy within a federal framework, Turkey and Iran continue to prioritise integration and security, and Syria’s evolving position remains closely tied to post-conflict state reconstruction.

From a diplomatic standpoint, the Kurdish question ultimately tests the flexibility of the Westphalian state system in the Middle East. It raises a recurring tension between stability and representation: regional governments prioritise territorial integrity, while Kurdish movements prioritise political recognition and self-administration. International actors, meanwhile, oscillate between normative support for minority rights and pragmatic commitment to existing borders.

The comparative evidence suggests that the future of Kurdish politics will not be determined by a singular breakthrough toward independence, but by incremental negotiations over autonomy, integration, and decentralisation. Where states perceive accommodation as strengthening stability, political space may expand. Where identity claims are securitised, political contraction is likely to follow.

In this sense, the Kurdish question remains less a frozen conflict than an evolving diplomatic negotiation embedded within broader regional transformations.

Bibliography 

Gunter, M., M. (2014), “Unrecognized De Facto States in World Politics: The Kurds.” The Brown Journal of World Affairs 20 (2): 161–178.

Loizides, N., G (2010), “State Ideology and the Kurds in Turkey.” Middle Eastern Studies 46 (4): 513–527. 

Zeidel, R. (2011), “The Iraqi Novel and the Kurds.” Review of Middle East Studies 45 (1): 19–34.

Al Jazeera (2026), “Syria Grants Immediate Citizenship to Kurds in Wake of Gains against SDF.” January 29, 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/29/syria-grants-immediate-citizenship-to-kurds-in-wake-of-gains-against-sdf.


*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

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Foreign Direct Investment: Why Asia Must Reframe Its Economic Strategy

By: Muad Zaki,

Senior Fellow at Asia Middle East Center (AMEC)


For much of the past decade, foreign direct investment (FDI) was treated by governments as a largely technical and economic matter. Policymakers focused on macroeconomic stability, incentives, infrastructure readiness, and regulatory predictability. The underlying assumption was that global capital flowed within a broadly stable international framework—one governed by shared rules, multilateral institutions, and predictable norms. That framework has now broken.

Across Asia, including Malaysia, growth strategies were built on openness to investment from multiple directions, the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and China. Non-alignment was not merely a diplomatic posture; it was an economic strategy made possible by an international system that rewarded neutrality and constrained unilateral coercion. For years, this allowed Asian economies to attract capital while remaining largely insulated from geopolitical confrontation.

Those conditions no longer hold. Foreign direct investment today operates in an international environment where prior assumptions about restraint, enforcement, and predictability have collapsed. Economic integration is no longer insulated from power politics. Capital flows are increasingly shaped by geopolitical pressure, strategic rivalry, and long-term alignment considerations, alongside traditional market fundamentals.

This reality was stated plainly at the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, when Mark Carney declared that the post-Cold War rules-based international order has already ruptured. His assessment was not a warning about future risk, but a diagnosis of present conditions. Trade, finance, supply chains, and regulatory systems are now routinely used as instruments of pressure rather than neutral mechanisms of cooperation. For a country as closely integrated with the United States as Canada, this public admission carried particular weight. For small and middle powers, the implications are even more serious.

In this fragmented global environment, sovereignty is increasingly respected only when it aligns with the strategic priorities of major powers. The experience of Venezuela illustrates this reality. External pressure was accompanied by unusually explicit statements linking strategic objectives directly to access to natural resources. Whatever one’s view of Venezuela’s domestic politics, the precedent is clear: when strategic assets are involved, international legal norms and multilateral restraint can be sidelined.

A similar logic, —expressed without military force,— was evident in Greenland. U.S. interest in Greenland was framed around security and strategic necessity, prompting firm rejection by Greenlandic and Danish authorities. The episode demonstrated that even stable, developed territories are not immune to from external pressure when geography or resources carry strategic value. These cases matter not because they are identical, but because they reflect a broader pattern with direct implications for long-term economic and investment policy.

Any serious discussion of foreign direct investment in Asia must also acknowledge the central role played by China in the region’s economic development over the past decade. Chinese investment has been a major driver of infrastructure expansion, industrial capacity building, manufacturing growth, logistics connectivity, and energy development across Asia, including Malaysia. These investments have focused on long-term economic fundamentals, such as—transport networks, industrial zones, ports, energy systems, and production facilities, —that directly support national development strategies and regional integration.

From the perspective of Asian governments and policymakers, Chinese investment has been widely regarded as practical, development-focused, and economically complementary. It has addressed financing gaps in large-scale projects that require scale, patience, and long investment horizons, often in areas where other sources of capital were limited or constrained. Importantly, China’s approach to investment engagement in Asia has emphasised economic outcomes rather than ideological or cultural conditionality, allowing host countries to pursue growth and infrastructure modernisation while preserving domestic policy autonomy.

At the same time, multinational corporations are adjusting rapidly to this new global landscape. Large firms now maintain dedicated geopolitical risk and strategic foresight units that assess medium- and long-term scenarios. These teams do not ask whether the old international system will return. They ask how host countries will manage alignment pressures once strategic competition intensifies further. The central concern for investors is policy durability and—whether regulatory frameworks, market access conditions, and compliance obligations will remain coherent over five to ten years.

In this context, countries that attempt to indefinitely hedge between competing power centres may be perceived as facing future policy disruption. This is not a judgement on the legitimacy of hedging, but a reflection of the narrowing space for sustained neutrality in a world where economic relations are increasingly politicised.

The breakdown of shared rules has also transformed how major powers approach investment. Foreign direct investment is increasingly used as leverage. Market access, technology cooperation, and even security partnerships are tied to political expectations. Policy signals from Washington suggest that preferential treatment for U.S. firms may become more explicit, sometimes at the expense of Canadian or European investors. Security arrangements can further complicate this environment when they indirectly constrain economic policy and raise questions about long-term regulatory independence.

At the same time, strategic divergence between the United States and the European Union, alongside Canada’s public reassessment of its global posture, is reshaping global investment behaviour. European scrutiny of major U.S. technology firms reflects a broader effort to reclaim regulatory and political autonomy in an increasingly fragmented international system. For Asia, this fragmentation presents both risks and opportunities.

What this means for Asian policymakers is clear. Foreign direct investment frameworks designed for a stable, rules-based international order are no longer sufficient. Governments must move from a model of passive investment attraction to one of strategic investment management. This requires integrating geopolitical foresight into economic policy, providing long-term clarity and predictability to investors, strengthening regional coordination within ASEAN, and embedding safeguards that protect sovereignty while preserving openness to productive partnerships.

This is not about choosing sides. It is about reducing vulnerability to coercion in a world where coercion has become normalised. The greatest risk facing policymakers today is not misjudgement, but delay. The assumption that the global system will self-correct has already been overtaken by events.Foreign direct investment will continue to flow. But in the current global environment, how it is governed —and the strategic clarity that underpins it —will increasingly determine not only economic outcomes, but national resilience itself.

*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

Mr. Muad M Zaki   

Senior Fellow

WRITTEN BY:

Muad Zaki
Director of Democracy & Transparency Initiative,
AMEC
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Starlink and the Risks of Digital Power Politics in the Middle East

By Muad M Zaki. 

Senior Fellow, Asia Middle East Center 

 

For more than a decade, U.S. strategy has searched for ways to influence political outcomes abroad without repeating the political and human costs of direct military intervention. Wars are expensive, electorally damaging, and increasingly unpopular across Western societies. In this environment, technology has been elevated as a substitute for force, capable of applying pressure, shaping narratives, and sustaining political movements without crossing the threshold of armed conflict.

The confrontation surrounding Starlink and Iran exposes the limits—and dangers—of that assumption. What began as a non-kinetic experiment in influence has not only failed to deliver decisive outcomes but, has also accelerated military escalation while raising fundamental questions about sovereignty, international law, and the reliability of shared communications infrastructure for allies as well as adversaries.

At its core, this is not a story about satellites or bandwidth. It is about whether privately owned technology can be selectively deployed to advance state objectives without undermining the legal order it claims to support.

The Strategic Appeal of Starlink

From a U.S. strategic perspective, Starlink appeared to offer something unprecedented: a transnational communications layer that does not rely on domestic infrastructure and is therefore difficult for states to control. Satellite terminals operate independently of national networks, creating the perception that connectivity could be sustained even when governments attempted to shut information flows down.

Strategically, this offered three advantages. First, circumvention without invasion. Political pressure could be applied without troops or airstrikes, avoiding escalation and the costs of kinetic force. Second, persistence. Because the infrastructure was external, it was assumed to be resilient to state countermeasures. Third, political insulation. As a privately owned commercial service, Starlink could be presented as neutral technology even when its effects aligned closely with U.S. foreign-policy objectives.

In practice, Starlink functioned as a pressure-sustaining infrastructure, capable of maintaining internal connectivity during periods of unrest while preserving external narrative access. This role reflected operational decisions about where, when, and for whom access would be enabled.

Domestic Constraints and Strategic Incentives

These assumptions cannot be separated from political realities in Washington. For President Donald Trump, the costs of direct confrontation with Iran are not abstract. Military escalation in the Middle East carries clear electoral risks, particularly ahead of midterm elections, when public tolerance for new conflicts is limited.

This has produced a visible split within the U.S. policy establishment. On one side are interventionist factions pressing for decisive action against Iran, even at the risk of regional war. On the other are “America First” voices that view foreign conflict as a political liability and urge concentration on domestic priorities. In this context, technology-driven pressure appeared to offer a compromise: influence outcomes without triggering a war that could destabilize domestic politics.

The Miscalculation

What was underestimated was not Iran’s technical capacity alone, but the breadth of its statecraft, particularly its anticipation that non-kinetic pressure would be paired with covert, intelligence-driven efforts to destabilize its internal security environment.

Rather than attempting to destroy satellites or escalate militarily, Iran focused on denying usability within its territory. States do not need to control infrastructure globally; they need only control the legal, physical, and electromagnetic environment in which it operates domestically.

Iran combined electromagnetic interference, criminal enforcement against unlicensed communications equipment, and physical deterrence through confiscation and penalties. These measures raised the personal cost of reliance on the system and sharply reduced its strategic utility. Importantly, they fall squarely within established principles of international law governing spectrum regulation and telecommunications.

The Neutrality Claim and the Gaza Test

The episode also exposes a deeper inconsistency in claims that Starlink operates as a neutral or humanitarian platform.

If satellite connectivity were genuinely deployed to protect civilians, journalists, and medical workers during crises, Gaza would represent the clearest possible case for its use. For more than two full years, Gaza has endured sustained large-scale civilian destruction, the collapse of medical infrastructure, mass displacement, and prolonged information blackouts, conditions widely recognized as genocide under international law by United Nations investigative mechanisms and reflected in proceedings before international courts under the 1948 Genocide Convention.

Yet during this two-year period, Starlink did not provide unrestricted, civilian-focused access to doctors, hospitals, journalists, or humanitarian organizations operating under siege. This absence is not a technical oversight or logistical delay. After two years, it can only be understood as a deliberate political choice.

Selective deployment across crises transforms a technology from a neutral humanitarian tool into a discretionary instrument aligned with geopolitical priorities.

Alignment With U.S. Policy and the Risks Ahead

It is therefore reasonable to conclude that Starlink has been used selectively in ways that support U.S. foreign-policy objectives, including in contexts where those objectives conflict with international legal obligations. Under international law, particularly the Genocide Convention, states and relevant actors have a duty to prevent genocide where possible. Withholding a capability that could materially assist civilians during a legally recognized genocide, while deploying that same capability elsewhere to sustain political pressure, carries legal and normative significance.

History suggests that escalation rarely begins with overt military strikes. It is more often preceded by covert action, intelligence operations, and proxy dynamics designed to weaken a target state from within. The Syrian war offers a sobering precedent: networks activated for short-term leverage quickly escaped control, producing regional instability that far outlasted their original objectives.

A similar risk now looms in the context of Iran. Such tactics may appear to offer deniability and leverage, but experience suggests they carry profound risks.

Europe and Global Consequences

The most significant danger revealed by the Starlink–Iran episode is not escalation with Iran alone, but the normalization of digital infrastructure as an instrument of geopolitical coercion. When private technology platforms can be selectively enabled or withheld in line with strategic priorities, they cease to function as neutral commercial services and instead become extensions of state power.

For Europe, the implications are acute. European states are deeply exposed to energy volatility, inflationary shocks, misinformation and political fragmentation driven by external crises. Yet they are also increasingly dependent on U.S.-based private infrastructure that operates under American jurisdiction. The Starlink precedent raises an unavoidable question: if such technologies can be used selectively against adversaries today, what guarantees exist that they will not be leveraged tomorrow in moments of transatlantic disagreement?

This is not a hypothetical concern. The selective deployment of Starlink—active in some politically aligned contexts, absent during two years of legally recognized genocide in Gaza—demonstrates that access is shaped by power, not principle. Once that reality is acknowledged, trust in shared infrastructure inevitably erodes.

The danger ahead is not simply escalation with Iran. It is the normalization of a system in which communications infrastructure becomes another instrument of coercion—quiet, deniable, and increasingly difficult to trust—undermining the sovereignty of independent states and destabilizing the international order.

*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

Mr. Muad M Zaki   

Senior Fellow

WRITTEN BY:

Muad Zaki
Director of Democracy & Transparency Initiative,
AMEC
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