Category: Article

Two Factions At War to Decide America’s Future: Is Trump’s America First Already Struggling?

Donald Trump, who has outperformed and beaten all the attempts of his opponents, has not completely won his goal to make America great again just yet. He has won the election in both the electoral votes and the popular vote, defying criticism from the mainstream media and establishment politicians in both the Democratic Party and the Republicans.

The US election has come close to a political world war, with every possible factor at stake. Trump has now emerged victorious in the first phase of becoming the 47th President of the United States of America. The election was broadcast live on nearly every mainstream media channel, including social media, which made it much harder for his opponents to manipulate the results or obscure the process.

His opponents tried everything—from leveraging the legal system to exert pressure on those close to him, to pushing for nation-wide voting without consistent voter ID verification. Interestingly, states where Democrats performed well tended to have lenient or absent voter ID laws, raising questions about the credibility of the results.

Today, on November 11th, Trump and his core team have entered the second phase of this political war: maneuvering through the offline and shadowy realms of politics, which are often hidden from ordinary citizens. Trump’s strategy now involves placing “America First” candidates in key positions that eluded him during his previous term in office (2017-2021). However, he’s on establishment turf now, where he’s up against political insiders accustomed to exerting influence behind closed doors.

Although Trump effectively leveraged his entertainment background to connect with the public and broadcast his message freely on social media platforms like X and TikTok, the world of “dark politics” is very different. This arena operates without the transparency of social media and is proving to be an uphill battle for Trump and his America First agenda.

One challenge lies in Trump’s attempt to balance diplomacy with filling government positions. On the one hand, he must navigate demands from foreign-policy experts and institutions that favour establishment figures. On the other, he’s determined to position loyal America First candidates in key roles. This balancing act is revealing where his allies’ loyalties truly lie. At this phase, Trump may once again find himself disappointed by those in his outer circle, who gained his trust only to undermine his policy goals at a critical moment.

Despite Trump’s popularity, figures like Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson—who possess influence and media platforms—are limited in how much they can expose about these dark political processes. The reasons for this are likely complex; it’s possible they either do not want to or are unable to shed light on how the political establishment actually functions. The America First movement, which is relatively small, is pitted against a deeply rooted establishment, one that has permeated American institutions and government bodies for decades. This entrenched power, dating back to major political shifts like the post-JFK era, poses a significant challenge to Trump’s ambitions.

A recent example of establishment influence can be seen in Trump’s selection of Elise Stefanik as the United Nations ambassador. While Stefanik is known for her alignment with Trump’s policies in some areas, the choice suggests a need for Trump to compromise or that his power is being subtly curtailed. Establishment Republicans are simultaneously trying to limit Trump’s influence further, particularly by vying for Senate leadership positions that could either support or obstruct America First policies. If Senator Rick Scott wins his current Senate battle, Trump would secure a crucial win for his agenda. However, if Scott loses, the establishment would have an influential figure positioned to challenge and dilute Trump’s initiatives from within.

As Trump fills other top positions, observers will be scrutinizing each choice closely, knowing that the Trump administration may have factions within itself. If the establishment can install its allies in critical roles, it would create a third phase of resistance to slow Trump’s agenda. In this phase, anti-America First factions would work to obstruct key policies, block legislative progress, and even target Trump-appointed officials to discredit or replace them, a tactic that could slowly undermine Trump’s agenda over the next several years.

For Trump’s supporters, the greatest frustration is likely a feeling of helplessness. The intricacies of political appointments and bureaucratic infighting are opaque, leaving supporters unsure of how to help or even understand the full scope of the struggle. The stakes, however, extend far beyond Washington. What unfolds in the coming months will not only shape the future of America but also send powerful ripples across the world stage.

Should Trump’s America First vision gain traction, the ripple effects could realign global alliances, impact international trade dynamics, and redefine U.S. foreign policy priorities in regions like the Middle East, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific. Countries around the world are closely watching this internal American conflict, knowing it will ultimately affect their own economies, security strategies, and political landscapes. Allies accustomed to traditional U.S. diplomacy may need to adjust, while rivals, too, are recalibrating their expectations.

For supporters, this battle isn’t just about domestic policy—it represents a fight for what America stands for and how it engages with the rest of the world.

 

WRITTEN BY:

Muad Zaki
Director of Democracy & Transparency Initiative,
AMEC

*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

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Is Ukraine the New Berlin Wall?

By : Khaldoon Abdulla

After the end of World War II, Germany emerged as a focal point in the global balance of power. The construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961 symbolized the geopolitical division between the two superpowers and the new bipolar world order. The wall’s fall in 1989 marked the beginning of a domino effect in the pro-USSR Bloc and the eastward expansion of NATO, which Russia, in decline, could not prevent.

As Putin rose to power with nostalgic and historical aspirations, he understood that repositioning Russia on the international scene required defining a Putin/Russian version of the US Monroe Doctrine amid ongoing NATO expansion, which made the use of force unavoidable. Indeed, from the wars in Chechnya in 1999, Georgia in 2008, and Ukraine in 2014 and 2022—not to mention the unconventional and indirect warfare in the Balkans and Caspian Sea regions—Russia has been defining its geopolitical sphere of influence. On the other hand, the US, by expanding NATO and the Liberal International Order, intended to exploit the geopolitical vacuum and use unipolarity to create a favorable and irreversible geopolitical balance.

Located in the heart of Eurasia, Ukraine serves as both a bridge and a buffer between East and West. Consequently, similar to Berlin during the Cold War, it has become the epicenter of new geopolitical tensions. Yet, Ukraine also possesses unique geographical, ethnic, cultural, and religious factors that could lead to division, emphasizing the “Berlin Wall Effect,” if such a term can be used.

Geographically, the post-Soviet state is divided by the Dnieper River into eastern and western blocs, with Kyiv located at the point of contact on the western bank. The West Bank of Ukraine is predominantly Ukrainian-speaking and ethnically Ukrainian, while the East Bank is mostly Russian-speaking and ethnically Russian. Consequently, the ongoing hostilities have exacerbated the pre-existing divisions within the Ukrainian identity.

As such factors were not absent in Washington’s and Moscow’s calculations, three potential interpretations of the situation involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine can be discerned. Since 1990, the US has sought to encircle Russia, believing that a future rising Russia, under encirclement, would succumb to self-consumption and destruction. Therefore, Ukraine has to act as a buffer for Russia and serve as a forward base for Western liberal institutions.

The Russian perspective saw Ukraine as a historical and geopolitical extension of Russia, acting as a gateway to its pivot to the West strategy, such as through the natural gas pipelines. Therefore, Russia’s interest lies in maintaining a strong influence over its neighbor. This was compounded by Ukraine’s failure to maintain a neutral position and pursue a multilateral/multi-dimensional foreign policy, which drew it into the center of the US-Russia security dilemma.

Currently, the US is exploiting Ukraine in a proxy war of attrition against Russia. Meanwhile, Putin, who never wished for a full-scale invasion, intends to integrate the eastern bank into Russia and install an affiliated regime in Kyiv on the adjacent side of the Dnieper. Consequently, this is a war for strategic depth at the expense of Ukraine, with neither side able to secure a decisive victory. Under these circumstances, a settlement in the balance of power ought to define the spheres of influence of the two camps and the new Berlin Wall.

Senior Research Fellow, AMEC

Twitter:  https://x.com/KhaldoonA23445/status/1809854189880676382


*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

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Connecting the Dots in Saudi Arabia Mingling Foreign Policy

by : Khaldoon Abdulla


Recently, Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy has witnessed a series of significant shifts that may seem chaotic and counterproductive. For example, the Kingdom aligned with China and Russia upon joining BRICS+ but subsequently signed the IMEC MoU countering China’s BRI. These fluctuations in Saudi Arabia’s relationships were not limited to its ties with the major powers but were also evident in its regional foreign policy, particularly with Iran and its allies in the region, raising doubts about the consistency of its foreign policy.

The main impetus behind Saudi foreign policy is the Iranian threat, exacerbated by its prominence and geographical proximity. Over the past decade, this threat has been further amplified by Iranian nuclear aspirations and the surge of its regional allies. This situation unfolded amidst the disintegration of the Gulf Cooperation Council, resulting in the isolation of Saudi Arabia, which found itself encircled by Iranian proxies in Yemen and the Fertile Crescent. For the past nine years, Iran has managed to hit Saudi soil with hundreds of missiles, mostly by the Houthis in Yemen, while the only retaliation the Kingdom could take was a prolonged war with the Yemeni insurgents.

Given this, the Kingdom, led by the Crown Prince (MBS), believes a defense treaty with the US is potentially the most effective safeguard for the Kingdom’s security. Yet, this must consider China’s and Russia’s strategic calculations globally and in the Middle East. MBS and the Saudi security establishment understand that despite Iran’s strategic partnership with Russia and China in various sectors, both major powers would be reluctant to jeopardize their national security by engaging in a war on behalf of Iran.

Leveraging this advantage, Saudi Arabia, in concert with its negotiations with the US, adopted a multidimensional foreign policy approach, establishing diplomatic ties with China and Russia to pursue four principal objectives:

First, to firmly assure the Russian and Chinese counterparts of the Kingdom’s unwavering stance of neutrality in the power dynamic between the US and China as well as Russia, stressing that any alignment with the US is strictly confined to regional objectives. Secondly, Saudi Arabia intends to utilize its growing ties with leading nations in the Global South to exert pressure on the US, which imposes stringent conditions on the Saudis, particularly about the normalization of relations with Israel, as will be elaborated upon shortly.

Thirdly, exploring potential Russian and, to a greater extent, Chinese mediation in the Saudi-Iran security dilemma. This strategy was initially fruitful but ultimately collapsed in the aftermath of the October 7th Gaza war. Fourth, contrary to the third objective, Saudi Arabia also intends to establish itself as a more valuable and stable ally to Moscow and Beijing, thereby weakening Tehran’s position in the regional balance of power.

Nonetheless, the Saudi-US negotiations did not witness distinctive progress, as the US sets normalization with Israel as a precondition for its security umbrella, which the Saudis insist must be in exchange for a two-state solution. Though Riyadh and Tel Aviv have never posed a threat to each other, the formal normalization of relations between the two parties could have severe impacts on the Kingdom’s symbolic role in the Muslim world, akin to Egypt after signing Camp David.

Therefore, the two-state solution acts as a balancing strategy for normalization in Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy. Nonetheless, Israeli intransigence obstructs the progression of the deal. The outbreak of the war in Gaza has put Riyadh under immense pressure. On one hand, as Hamas is perceived by the Saudis as an ally to Tehran, their operations on October 7 represented an escalation of the Iranian threat, thus accelerating normalization. Conversely, the Israeli genocide in Gaza will make the consequences of any normalization disastrous for Saudi Arabia unless Israel agrees to a two-state solution, which is unlikely to happen.

Under these circumstances, the Kingdom is stuck between three complicated alternatives: first, the preferable yet most improbable scenario of convincing the White House to separate the security deal from normalization with Israel; second, to normalize relations with Israel and bear the consequences in exchange for a US security guarantee; third, to be left to bear with the surging Iranian regional influence and its nuclear aspirations.

Khaldoon Ahmed Hasson Abdulla

Senior Research Fellow, AMEC

Twitter:  https://x.com/KhaldoonA23445/status/1811337468525916284

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*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

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Strategic Shifts in Global Power: The Evolving Relations between Asia and the Middle East

By: Mutaa Aladhami

Introduction :

This research reflects the significant realignment in global geopolitics, driven by the growing economic, political, and security ties between Asia and the Middle East. This research is vital for policymakers as it offers insights into the changing power dynamics that challenge traditional Western dominance, particularly the United States, and highlights the strategic importance of Asia’s increasing influence in the Middle East. Understanding these shifts is crucial for formulating policies that ensure economic collaboration, energy security, and regional stability in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

full Article :

Mutaa Aladhami
Intern for Democracy & Transparency Initiative Under
AMEC


*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

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An Outside Analysis of the Turkish Electoral Trend


The recent municipal and mayoral elections in Turkey might appear, to many international observers, as indicative of a pivotal shift in voter allegiance toward the opposition CHP (Republican People’s Party), marking a significant setback for the incumbent AK Party.

This election marked the first occasion in two decades that President Erdogan’s party faced defeat on a national scale at the polls. The CHP secured victories in nearly all major cities, including Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Adana, Antalya, Balikesir, Adiyaman, and Bursa, Turkey’s fourth-largest city.

The preceding five years have been critical for understanding why the AK Party has seen a decline in support among its traditionally loyal electorate, who have historically afforded it the benefit of the doubt in resolving their grievances. The Turkish populace, known for its patience and national pride, as well as its warm hospitality toward visitors, has faced increasing challenges since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011, with concerns seemingly failing to reach President Erdogan—despite his enduring popularity. It is crucial to remember Erdogan’s transformative impact on Istanbul and subsequently the nation, navigating through sanctions aimed at preventing Turkey’s emergence as a global power.

From 2011 to 2019, as Germany welcomed over 1 million refugees, Turkey hosted approximately 3.6 million, facing distinct challenges in policy implementation, security screening, and the integration of cultural differences, alongside the resultant socio-economic pressures from these diverse and unpredictable situations.

Initially, during the Arab Spring, Turkey economically capitalized on its stability, attracting foreign investment. However, the failed coup attempt on July 15, 2016, orchestrated, as believed, by the U.S.-based Gulen movement and its allies, introduced economic uncertainties and eroded investor confidence. The crackdown that followed implicated many, including the detention of an American pastor in October 2016, accused of coordinating the coup. In retaliation, U.S. sanctions imposed in 2018 precipitated a sharp depreciation of the Turkish Lira, exacerbating economic instability, inflation, and shaking investor confidence. The pastor’s accusation aligns with several other instances of U.S. pastors charged with espionage against foreign governments targeted by the U.S. for regime change. Some examples would be July 2012 in Iran, November 2012 in North Korea, and 2006 in China.

Before Turkey could fully recover from these sanctions, the global COVID-19 pandemic emerged in March 2020, devastating the tourism sector, which was projected to contribute significantly to the GDP and job creation over the next decade. For example. the country’s tourism sector’s contribution to GDP was expected to grow at an annual rate of 5.5% over the next decade, with a projection of creating over 716,000 new jobs between 2022 to 2032.
However the pandemic led to a 70% decline in tourism, though the sector saw a revival as international travel resumed, aided by the Lira’s depreciation. Yet, the long-term socio-economic strains from 2011 to 2021 were overlooked as efforts were focused on economic recovery.

For a country where a government that has been in power since 2003, it is natural for the opposition, in this case the CHP, to spotlight grassroots socio-economic issues as electoral leverage. Despite recognition of Erdogan’s leadership and efforts, there was a growing perception among Turks of being disconnected from their leader, with stories of their daily struggles not reaching their leader.

This election’s outcome seems less an endorsement of the opposition and more a clarion call from the populace to President Erdogan, highlighting a longstanding sense of disconnect. Nonetheless, this victory presents the CHP with a rare chance to enact tangible changes and prove their promises of prosperity are more than just rhetoric. Conversely, it serves as a moment of reflection for President Erdogan and the AK Party, necessitating introspection and potentially hard questions within party ranks.

For both Erdogan and the AK Party, as well as the CHP, the path to future electoral success will be challenging, requiring comprehensive and effectively implemented policies, both in the short term and the long run.

Muad Zaki
Director of Democracy and Transparency Initiative,
AMEC

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Reassessing Global Diplomacy: The Gaza Conflict’s Impact on Democratic Values and International Relations

As we cross the four-month threshold of the ongoing conflict in Gaza, the international community faces a pivotal moment of reflection. The rules-based system, a cornerstone of global diplomacy and governance, championed by democratic nations, confronts its sternest test. This system’s credibility is challenged by the perceived inconsistencies in the responses of Western democracies to crises around the world, notably the stark contrast in their approach to the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.

In the heart of Gaza, the narrative shaped by Western mainstream media diverges significantly from their coverage of Ukraine, exposing a complex interplay of geopolitics and media influence. Despite concerted efforts by human rights organizations and the United Nations to mediate a ceasefire and underscore the escalating humanitarian crisis, their calls have largely been overshadowed by the political calculus of powerful nations, particularly the United States. This has provided ammunition for critics who accuse the West of hypocrisy, alleging a selective valuation of human lives based on geopolitical interests.

The advent of social media platforms like TikTok and X (formerly Twitter) has democratized information dissemination, offering unfiltered insights into the conflict. This has been instrumental in bringing to light the severity of the situation in Gaza, a narrative that has resonated deeply with global youth, challenging mainstream narratives and offering a counterpoint to official stances.

The International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) involvement, labeling the situation in Gaza as “plausible genocide,” marks a significant legal and moral indictment. This has not only intensified the scrutiny on Israel but also on its staunchest allies, leading to a recalibration of support among Western nations. The U.S.’s decision to halt funding to UNRWA in response to the ICJ ruling has sparked a debate on the commitment of Western powers to the principles of international law and humanitarian aid, with several European nations opting to stand by these principles.

This divergence in approach has significant implications for the political landscape in Western democracies, particularly those that have traditionally supported Israel unconditionally. The conflict has become a litmus test for democratic values, potentially influencing 2024 electoral outcomes in over 12 nations across the US, UK and Europe. The role of informed and engaged youth, along with the Muslim communities, in shaping these outcomes cannot be overstated, as their perspectives on foreign policy increasingly influence domestic politics.

Moreover, the conflict’s ripple effects extend beyond immediate political considerations, affecting geopolitical alignments and economic stability. The emerging divide within the West, and between the West and the global South, underscores the need for a nuanced approach to foreign policy that reconciles national interests with global democratic values and human rights.

As the international community navigates this complex landscape, the decisions made today will have far-reaching consequences for global diplomacy, democratic governance, and the rules-based international order. The Gaza conflict serves as a stark reminder of the challenges facing global leadership in maintaining consistency in their commitment to democratic principles and human rights across all arenas of international engagement.

Muad Zaki
Director of Democracy and Transparency Initiative,
AMEC

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Oriental Imprints: The Middle Eastern Influence on Shaping Southeast Asian Civilizations

By Muhammad Rumi Azhari Nur Irfani

Southeast Asia, with its vibrant colors of cultural influences, presents a unique study in the interplay of diverse historical and social forces. Despite the geographical distance separating the region from the Middle East, the cultural elements of Southeast Asia echo Middle Eastern influences in many ways. These parallels manifest in various domains, including philosophy, religion, ethics, and art. Given such extensive overlaps, a pertinent question arises: How did such a geographically distant region come to bear the imprint of Middle Eastern culture so distinctly? Unraveling this question requires a historical, anthropological, and psychological exploration of the influences that have shaped Southeast Asia’s cultural identity.

Historically, Southeast Asia and the Middle East’s cultural identities were shaped by their thriving trade networks. The Spice Route, active between the 7th and 10th centuries A.D., was a vital conduit for sharing commodities, ideologies, beliefs, and traditions. Middle Eastern traders, acting as cultural emissaries, significantly influenced Southeast Asia’s coastal regions. This cultural exchange deepened with the rise of Muslim traders, notably the Bugis and Malay, in the 18th century. Their wide-reaching trade networks amplified the spread of Islam and Arabian influence. Further, mid-18th century immigrants from Hadhramaut—a culturally rich region in Yemen—strengthened the Middle Eastern influence on Southeast Asia’s culture, introducing their distinct religious and cultural practices to the region (Shimada, 2019). 

Franz Boas’ Diffusion Theory sheds light on this cultural interplay. It suggests cultural traits can transfer from one society to another, rather than being solely indigenous. Coastal societies in Southeast Asia, such as Indonesia, Brunei, and Malaysia, didn’t just receive these traits passively. They adapted them to their social structures, a process fostered by ongoing contact with traders (Boas, 2015). Consequently, this didn’t just lead to the adoption of certain Middle Eastern customs or practices; it also led to a significant transformation in societal norms, ethical frameworks, and religious orientations. This widespread cultural diffusion effectively restructured the social fabric of these societies, setting the foundation for a cultural legacy that continues to shape their identity.

Another notable aspect of this cultural interchange is the adoption of Middle Eastern philosophies, particularly Islam, in Southeast Asia. The region was no stranger to foreign philosophies, with the teachings of Chinese Confucianism and Budhism, along with Indian Hinduism, already ingrained in various societies. Despite this, Islam carved out its niche within these coastal communities. Theory of Confirmation Bias might be a suitable explanation of this phenomenon. According to this theory, new information that aligns with existing beliefs or offers a simpler understanding is more readily assimilated (Draper & Nichols, 2013; Fernandes, 2023; Nickerson, 1998; Ruzzier & Woo, 2023). In this light, the straightforward socio-political tenets of Islam might have seemed less complex compared to the metaphysical nuances of Indian and Chinese philosophies. This could account for why Islam resonated so strongly with the local populace, leading to the establishment of numerous Sultanates in Southeast Asia.

Despite the significant cultural assimilation along the coastal regions, the transition was not without its complexities. As Islamic influences permeated the region, particularly in nations like Thailand, the inland areas witnessed protracted conflicts. The expansion of Islamic Sultanates into these territories often clashed with the existing non-Muslim kingdoms, causing wars that spanned centuries. A clear example is the intermittent conflicts between the Sultanate of Malacca, a prominent maritime Islamic kingdom in the 15th century, and the Kingdom of Ayutthaya in present-day Thailand. These disputes were not merely about territorial expansion but reflected deeper cultural differences and resistance against the adoption of Middle Eastern philosophies (Ann Kordas et al., 2022; Chris Quan, 2022; Joll, 2012).

These policies served as shields against cultural changes from the coast, helping these kingdoms retain their identities. Geography also played a role, protecting them from direct Middle Eastern influence. Today, this past is visible in their culture. For instance, Thailand remains Buddhist despite being between Muslim-majority Malaysia and Indonesia. Similarly, Cambodia, Laos, and parts of Vietnam have kept their unique blend of Theravada Buddhism and local traditions (Von Der Mehden, 1980). These kingdoms, fortified by their geopolitical locations, were somewhat insulated from the cultural changes sweeping the coastal areas, allowing them to preserve their unique identities. This divergence in cultural evolution has led to the coexistence of Islamic and non-Islamic traditions in Southeast Asia, a testament to the region’s diversity.

As the region evolved socio-politically, the Middle Eastern influence remained pervasive, shaping various aspects of Southeast Asian civilizations. However, the pace of cultural assimilation varied, slowing down as societies became more aware and proud of their unique identities. According to the study by Abramitzky et al. (2020), it is argued that the rate of cultural conversion nowadays are slower compared to the past decades. In modern times, while Southeast Asian nations actively engage in global dialogues, they still strive to maintain their distinct cultural identities. This would explain the reason of why at the present, the transformation of cultural and philosophical affinity is not prevalent as it was before the modern times.

The vibrant cultural realm of Southeast Asia, woven with threads of Middle Eastern influence, is an enduring testament to centuries-old trade networks and the spread of philosophies like Islam. Such exchanges have indelibly shaped Southeast Asia, from its coastal societies—altered by their interactions with traders—to its inland areas, which retained unique identities. Today, the region stands as a diverse meld of traditions, beliefs, and practices. Despite a slow-down in cultural assimilation due to modern times, this interconnected heritage continues to shape the area’s future. Thus, Southeast Asia’s narrative underscores the profound, transformative power of cultural exchange and the lasting bonds it forms, transcending both time and distance.

References

Abramitzky, R., Boustan, L., & Eriksson, K. (2020). Do Immigrants Assimilate More Slowly Today than in the Past? American Economic Review. Insights, 2(1), 125. https://doi.org/10.1257/AERI.20190079

Ann Kordas, Ryan J. Lynch, Brooke Nelson, & Julie Tatlock. (2022). The Malacca Sultanate. In World History Volume 2, from 1400 (Vol. 2). OpenStax. https://openstax.org/books/world-history-volume-2/pages/2-2-the-malacca-sultanate

Boas, F. (2015). The Diffusion of Cultural Traits. Social Research: An International Quarterly, 82(1), 177–186. https://doi.org/10.1353/SOR.2015.0001

Chris Quan. (2022, November 2). Ayutthaya Kingdom. Asian Highlights. https://www.asiahighlights.com/thailand/ayutthaya-kingdom

Draper, P., & Nichols, R. (2013). Diagnosing Bias in Philosophy of Religion. The Monist, 96(3), 420–446. https://doi.org/10.5840/MONIST201396319

Fernandes, M. R. (2023). Confirmation bias in social networks. Mathematical Social Sciences, 123, 59–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.MATHSOCSCI.2023.02.007

Joll, C. M. (2012). Indic, Islamic and Thai Influences. Muslim Merit-Making in Thailand’s Far-South, 25–60. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2485-3_2

Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175–220. https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175

Ruzzier, C. A., & Woo, M. D. (2023). Discrimination with inaccurate beliefs and confirmation bias. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 210, 379–390. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JEBO.2023.04.018

Shimada, R. (2019). Southeast Asia and International Trade: Continuity and Change in Historical Perspective. 55–71. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-3131-2_3

Von Der Mehden, F. R. (1980). Religion and development in South-east Asia: A comparative study. World Development, 8(7–8), 545–553. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(80)90039-X

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Bilateral Trade Relations between India and UAE: Evolution, Present Status, Challenges, and Future Prospects

By MOHD AMMAR ZIKRY

Introduction

India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have established a rich and evolving bilateral trade relationship. From a humble beginning with an annual exchange of US$180 million in the 1970s to a robust partnership today, this relationship has exhibited remarkable resilience and strategic importance. This paper will explore this partnership’s origins, growth, challenges, and prospects, demonstrating the significance of its shared strategic vision in driving the future of its trade relations.

Historical Background and Evolution

The trading relationship between India and the UAE can be traced back several centuries when traders voyaged across the Arabian Sea to exchange goods. It took a formal turn in the 1970s with an annual trade volume of US$180 million. The relationship evolved progressively over the decades, with the UAE emerging as India’s largest trading partner in the fiscal year 2012-13. Given the UAE’s small population, this attests to its strategic location and economic policies. This association was based on economics and fortified by cultural and personal ties.

The trade relationship between India and the UAE has a deep historical origin, dating back centuries when traders would sail across the Arabian Sea to exchange goods. This relationship took a more formal and strategic turn in the 1970s. The trade volume was relatively modest during this period, amounting to US$180 million annually.

In the following years, the relationship between the two countries grew more vigorous, with the UAE becoming one of India’s top three exporting nations. By the fiscal year 2012-13, the UAE had become India’s largest trading partner, a significant achievement considering the UAE’s small population size.

The growth of bilateral trade relations has been systematic and strategic, strengthening the countries’ economic, commercial, and strategic partnerships. This strategic relationship has also been complemented by strong cultural and people-to-people ties, with a sizeable Indian diaspora residing in the UAE. Overall, the evolution of India-UAE trade relations is a testament to both nations’ mutual understanding, shared interests, and strategic vision.

Current Patterns and Trends

As of 2021, India-UAE trade increased to US$72.8 billion (IBEF, 2023). The UAE invested more than US$4 billion in India in FY2020 through its sovereign wealth funds, signifying the growing importance of India as an investment destination for the UAE  (Palit, 2022). Defence cooperation also has been steadily growing, reinforcing their comprehensive strategic partnership (Ministry of External Affairs – Government of India, 2020). 

According to a report by KPMG (2022), trade between India and the UAE has increased significantly over the years (see Table 1):

YearExportsImportsTotal Trade
201630,00019,00049,000
201733,00021,00054,000
201830,00028,00058,000
201929,00031,00060,000
202017,00016,00033,000

Note. Adapted from “India-UAE bilateral trade and investment report” by KPMG, 2022 (https://kpmg.com/ae/en/home/insights/2022/02/india-uae-bilateral-trade-and-investment-report.html)

The table shows the bilateral trade between India and UAE from 2016 to 2020 regarding exports, imports and total trade. It shows that the trade peaked in 2019 at USD 60 billion but declined in 2020 due to the pandemic. It also shows that India has a trade surplus with UAE, meaning it exports more than it imports from UAE. Nevertheless, the trade volume has grown significantly, from US$180 million in the 1970s to USD 60 billion in 2019, and is expected to reach US$100 billion by 2030. This shows the high potential for business and investment opportunities between the two countries, as they have diversified their trade sectors and expanded their cooperation in various fields.

Challenges and Opportunities

While trade relations have been thriving, both countries face several challenges, including geopolitical factors, regional integration, market access, and regulatory barriers. The need to safeguard critical supply chains and diversify trade partners are factors shaping their Free Trade Agreement (FTA) engagements (Palit, 2022). Nonetheless, these challenges also present opportunities for enhancing cooperation, such as improving regulatory harmonisation, enhancing mutual investments, and strengthening the strategic partnership.

The two countries also signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in February this year, giving market access to 97 per cent of tariff lines accounting for 99 per cent of Indian exports. The CEPA was the first signed by India in the Middle East and North Africa region and by the UAE in any country worldwide.

However, some challenges and opportunities exist in bilateral trade relations between India and the UAE. Some of the challenges include:

  • Diversifying the trade basket beyond petroleum products, gems, and jewellery, which account for most trade between India and the UAE (2016-2020). 
  • Enhancing connectivity and logistics infrastructure to facilitate trade flows and reduce costs. Addressing non-tariff barriers such as standards, certifications, and regulations that may affect market access. 

Some of the opportunities include: 

  • Leveraging the strategic location of the UAE as a gateway to Africa, Europe, and Central Asia for Indian exports. 
  • Exploring new sectors of cooperation such as fintech, clean energy and climate action, food security, sustainability, digital payments, cyber security, cryptocurrencies, and advanced technologies. 
  • Increasing investment flows in both directions, especially coal, oil and gas, and real estate. 

Future Prospects

As we look ahead, the impact of global market trends, oil prices, and economic policies will continue to shape the future of India-UAE trade relations. The world is gradually shifting towards renewable energy, and the oil demand may decline over the coming decades. This transition presents an opportunity for both countries to invest in and trade renewable energy technologies. The growth of digital economies also offers potential for cooperation in sectors such as e-commerce, fintech, and artificial intelligence. With the right economic policies and a strategic vision, India and the UAE can further navigate these global shifts and strengthen their trade relationship.

Conclusion

The bilateral trade relationship between India and UAE has proven to be dynamic and resilient, persisting through global market trends, fluctuating oil prices, and evolving economic policies. From modest beginnings, this relationship has grown into a partnership of strategic importance for both countries, with trade volumes reflecting the depth of their economic cooperation.

The evolution of India-UAE trade relations is a testament to their mutual understanding, shared interests, and strategic vision. The shared vision of prosperity and strategic collaboration between India and the UAE holds a beacon of promise, guiding their journey as they continue to shape the future of their bilateral trade relations.

(999 WORDS)

REFERENCES

IBEF. (2023). India-UAE Trade. https://www.ibef.org/indian-exports/india-uae-trade

KPMG. (2022). India-UAE Bilateral Trade and Investment Report. Retrieved May 19, 2023, from https://kpmg.com/ae/en/home/insights/2022/02/india-uae-bilateral-trade-and-investment-report.html.

Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. (2020). Bilateral Brief February 2020. Retrieved May 19, 2023, from https://mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/Bilateral_Brief_feb_2020_.pdf.

Palit, A. (2022). India-United Arab Emirates CEPA: New Beginning in India’s Trade Engagement. Retrieved May 19, 2023, from https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/papers/india-united-arab-emirates-cepa-new-beginning-in-indias-trade-engagement/

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The Silk Road: Bridging Middle East and Asia

By Fito Reyhantara

Introduction
The Silk Road stands as an enduring symbol of the historical ties between the Middle
East and Asia. Spanning over several millennia, this ancient network of trade routes played a
crucial role in connecting civilizations and facilitating the exchange of goods, ideas, and
cultures. The Silk Road was not a single, fixed route, but a complex web of paths that stretched
across vast territories, encompassing diverse landscapes and peoples.
The origins of the Silk Road can be traced back to the Han Dynasty in China around
130 BCE. This period marked the beginning of a significant trade relationship between the
Middle East and Asia, as Chinese silk, renowned for its exquisite quality, became a highly
coveted commodity in the West. The Middle East, with its strategic geographical location,
served as a vital crossroad where the Silk Road intersected with other trade routes, branching
out into Europe, Africa, and the Indian subcontinent.
The Silk Road was more than a mere conduit for commerce; it was a conduit for cultural
and intellectual exchange as well. Along its extensive routes, diverse civilizations interacted,
sharing not only goods but also ideas, technologies, languages, and religious beliefs. Buddhist
missionaries from India, Muslim merchants from the Arabian Peninsula, and European
travelers like Marco Polo all traversed the Silk Road, leaving indelible imprints on the societies
they encountered.
Today, the legacy of the Silk Road continues to resonate. It serves as a reminder of the
historical interconnections between the Middle East and Asia and highlights the power of trade
and cultural exchange in shaping societies. As globalization and interconnectedness define the
contemporary world, understanding the historical context and significance of the Silk Road
becomes even more relevant in fostering cooperation, diplomacy, and mutual understanding
between Middle Eastern and Asian nations.
Body
The term “Silk Road” itself was coined by the German geographer Ferdinand von
Richthofen in the late 19th century. However, it is important to note that the Silk Road was not
a single, unified route but rather a network of interconnected paths that spanned thousands of
kilometers. It stretched from China in the east to the Mediterranean Sea in the west, with
branching routes that extended into Central Asia, the Indian subcontinent, and beyond.
The primary purpose of the Silk Road was to facilitate the trade of valuable
commodities, most notably silk. Chinese silk, renowned for its exquisite craftsmanship and
high quality, became a highly sought-after luxury item in the West. It was lightweight, durable,
and had a high value-to-weight ratio, making it ideal for long-distance trade. However, silk was
just one of the many goods exchanged along the Silk Road. The routes also facilitated the trade
of spices, precious metals, gemstones, ceramics, textiles, tea, horses, and various agricultural
products.

The Middle East played a pivotal role in the Silk Road’s historical trajectory. As a
crucial link between East and West, the Middle East served as a hub of commercial activity and
cultural exchange. Major trade centers such as Palmyra in Syria, Palmyra in Iraq, Baghdad,
Damascus, and Cairo emerged as bustling cosmopolitan cities where goods from distant lands
were bought, sold, and distributed.
The Silk Road played a pivotal role in shaping the economies of both the Middle East
and Asia. It fostered commercial activity, encouraged cultural exchange, and facilitated the
diffusion of ideas and technologies. For the Middle East, the Silk Road brought economic
prosperity as the region became a hub for trade and commerce. Cities along the route, such as
Palmyra in Syria and Palmyra in Iraq, flourished as bustling centers of exchange, showcasing
the region’s rich cultural heritage.
In Asia, the Silk Road stimulated economic growth, linking diverse civilizations and
promoting the spread of knowledge and innovations. Chinese silk, highly sought after in the
West, became a key driver of economic development, establishing China as a dominant player
in global trade. Asian societies, including the Parthians, Sogdians, and Kushans, capitalized on
the economic opportunities provided by the Silk Road, facilitating the flow of goods and ideas
across vast distances.
While the Silk Road as a physical trade route declined over time, its legacy remains
deeply embedded in the cultural and historical fabric of the Middle East and Asia. The exchange
of goods and ideas fostered cross-cultural interactions and left an indelible mark on the
development of art, architecture, language, and cuisine. The spread of religions, such as
Buddhism, Islam, and Christianity, owes much to the Silk Road, as they were carried along its
routes by merchants, pilgrims, and scholars.
The Silk Road also nurtured intellectual and academic exchanges, with scholars and
travelers documenting their observations and experiences. Notable figures like Marco Polo and
Ibn Battuta recorded their journeys along the Silk Road, providing valuable insights into the
societies and cultures they encountered.
Conclusion
The Silk Road stands as a testament to the enduring ties between the Middle East and
Asia. Through its historical significance and impact on regional economies, it exemplifies the
power of trade in fostering cultural exchange and economic prosperity. Today, as global
connectivity expands, the lessons of the Silk Road continue to resonate, emphasizing the
importance of cooperation, understanding, and collaboration between Middle Eastern and
Asian nations.

References
Adshead, S. A. M. “The Silk Road: Trade, Travel, War, and Faith.” Reaktion Books, 2013.
Christian, David. “Silk Roads or Steppe Roads? The Silk Roads in World History.” Journal of
World History, vol. 11, no. 1, 2000, pp. 1-26.
Foltz, Richard C. “Religions of the Silk Road: Premodern Patterns of Globalization.” Palgrave
Macmillan, 2010.
Hill, John E. “Through the Jade Gate: China to Rome: A Study of the Silk Routes 1st to 2nd
Centuries CE.” BookSurge Publishing, 2009.
Hansen, Valerie. “The Silk Road: A New History.” Oxford University Press, 2012.
Latham, Edward. “The Silk Road: An Illustrated History.” Hippocrene Books, 2002.
Liu, Xinru. “The Silk Road in World History.” Oxford University Press, 2010.

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