By : Khaldoon Abdulla

After the end of World War II, Germany emerged as a focal point in the global balance of power. The construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961 symbolized the geopolitical division between the two superpowers and the new bipolar world order. The wall’s fall in 1989 marked the beginning of a domino effect in the pro-USSR Bloc and the eastward expansion of NATO, which Russia, in decline, could not prevent.

As Putin rose to power with nostalgic and historical aspirations, he understood that repositioning Russia on the international scene required defining a Putin/Russian version of the US Monroe Doctrine amid ongoing NATO expansion, which made the use of force unavoidable. Indeed, from the wars in Chechnya in 1999, Georgia in 2008, and Ukraine in 2014 and 2022—not to mention the unconventional and indirect warfare in the Balkans and Caspian Sea regions—Russia has been defining its geopolitical sphere of influence. On the other hand, the US, by expanding NATO and the Liberal International Order, intended to exploit the geopolitical vacuum and use unipolarity to create a favorable and irreversible geopolitical balance.

Located in the heart of Eurasia, Ukraine serves as both a bridge and a buffer between East and West. Consequently, similar to Berlin during the Cold War, it has become the epicenter of new geopolitical tensions. Yet, Ukraine also possesses unique geographical, ethnic, cultural, and religious factors that could lead to division, emphasizing the “Berlin Wall Effect,” if such a term can be used.

Geographically, the post-Soviet state is divided by the Dnieper River into eastern and western blocs, with Kyiv located at the point of contact on the western bank. The West Bank of Ukraine is predominantly Ukrainian-speaking and ethnically Ukrainian, while the East Bank is mostly Russian-speaking and ethnically Russian. Consequently, the ongoing hostilities have exacerbated the pre-existing divisions within the Ukrainian identity.

As such factors were not absent in Washington’s and Moscow’s calculations, three potential interpretations of the situation involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine can be discerned. Since 1990, the US has sought to encircle Russia, believing that a future rising Russia, under encirclement, would succumb to self-consumption and destruction. Therefore, Ukraine has to act as a buffer for Russia and serve as a forward base for Western liberal institutions.

The Russian perspective saw Ukraine as a historical and geopolitical extension of Russia, acting as a gateway to its pivot to the West strategy, such as through the natural gas pipelines. Therefore, Russia’s interest lies in maintaining a strong influence over its neighbor. This was compounded by Ukraine’s failure to maintain a neutral position and pursue a multilateral/multi-dimensional foreign policy, which drew it into the center of the US-Russia security dilemma.

Currently, the US is exploiting Ukraine in a proxy war of attrition against Russia. Meanwhile, Putin, who never wished for a full-scale invasion, intends to integrate the eastern bank into Russia and install an affiliated regime in Kyiv on the adjacent side of the Dnieper. Consequently, this is a war for strategic depth at the expense of Ukraine, with neither side able to secure a decisive victory. Under these circumstances, a settlement in the balance of power ought to define the spheres of influence of the two camps and the new Berlin Wall.

Senior Research Fellow, AMEC

Twitter:  https://x.com/KhaldoonA23445/status/1809854189880676382

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*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

by : Khaldoon Abdulla

Recently, Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy has witnessed a series of significant shifts that may seem chaotic and counterproductive. For example, the Kingdom aligned with China and Russia upon joining BRICS+ but subsequently signed the IMEC MoU countering China’s BRI. These fluctuations in Saudi Arabia’s relationships were not limited to its ties with the major powers but were also evident in its regional foreign policy, particularly with Iran and its allies in the region, raising doubts about the consistency of its foreign policy.

The main impetus behind Saudi foreign policy is the Iranian threat, exacerbated by its prominence and geographical proximity. Over the past decade, this threat has been further amplified by Iranian nuclear aspirations and the surge of its regional allies. This situation unfolded amidst the disintegration of the Gulf Cooperation Council, resulting in the isolation of Saudi Arabia, which found itself encircled by Iranian proxies in Yemen and the Fertile Crescent. For the past nine years, Iran has managed to hit Saudi soil with hundreds of missiles, mostly by the Houthis in Yemen, while the only retaliation the Kingdom could take was a prolonged war with the Yemeni insurgents.

Given this, the Kingdom, led by the Crown Prince (MBS), believes a defense treaty with the US is potentially the most effective safeguard for the Kingdom’s security. Yet, this must consider China’s and Russia’s strategic calculations globally and in the Middle East. MBS and the Saudi security establishment understand that despite Iran’s strategic partnership with Russia and China in various sectors, both major powers would be reluctant to jeopardize their national security by engaging in a war on behalf of Iran.

Leveraging this advantage, Saudi Arabia, in concert with its negotiations with the US, adopted a multidimensional foreign policy approach, establishing diplomatic ties with China and Russia to pursue four principal objectives:

First, to firmly assure the Russian and Chinese counterparts of the Kingdom’s unwavering stance of neutrality in the power dynamic between the US and China as well as Russia, stressing that any alignment with the US is strictly confined to regional objectives. Secondly, Saudi Arabia intends to utilize its growing ties with leading nations in the Global South to exert pressure on the US, which imposes stringent conditions on the Saudis, particularly about the normalization of relations with Israel, as will be elaborated upon shortly.

Thirdly, exploring potential Russian and, to a greater extent, Chinese mediation in the Saudi-Iran security dilemma. This strategy was initially fruitful but ultimately collapsed in the aftermath of the October 7th Gaza war. Fourth, contrary to the third objective, Saudi Arabia also intends to establish itself as a more valuable and stable ally to Moscow and Beijing, thereby weakening Tehran’s position in the regional balance of power.

Nonetheless, the Saudi-US negotiations did not witness distinctive progress, as the US sets normalization with Israel as a precondition for its security umbrella, which the Saudis insist must be in exchange for a two-state solution. Though Riyadh and Tel Aviv have never posed a threat to each other, the formal normalization of relations between the two parties could have severe impacts on the Kingdom’s symbolic role in the Muslim world, akin to Egypt after signing Camp David.

Therefore, the two-state solution acts as a balancing strategy for normalization in Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy. Nonetheless, Israeli intransigence obstructs the progression of the deal. The outbreak of the war in Gaza has put Riyadh under immense pressure. On one hand, as Hamas is perceived by the Saudis as an ally to Tehran, their operations on October 7 represented an escalation of the Iranian threat, thus accelerating normalization. Conversely, the Israeli genocide in Gaza will make the consequences of any normalization disastrous for Saudi Arabia unless Israel agrees to a two-state solution, which is unlikely to happen.

Under these circumstances, the Kingdom is stuck between three complicated alternatives: first, the preferable yet most improbable scenario of convincing the White House to separate the security deal from normalization with Israel; second, to normalize relations with Israel and bear the consequences in exchange for a US security guarantee; third, to be left to bear with the surging Iranian regional influence and its nuclear aspirations.

Khaldoon Ahmed Hasson Abdulla

Senior Research Fellow, AMEC

Twitter:  https://x.com/KhaldoonA23445/status/1811337468525916284

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*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The British parliamentary election held on July 4th, 2024, marked a significant turning point in the UK’s political landscape. Utilizing the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, voters selected candidates to represent their constituencies in Parliament. The Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, achieved a landslide victory, securing 411 seats and ending 14 years of Conservative rule. The Conservatives, led by Rishi Sunak, experienced one of their worst electoral defeats, securing only 121 seats. The Liberal Democrats, Scottish
National Party (SNP), and other smaller parties also saw notable changes in their representation. Key issues influencing voters included the economy, healthcare, immigration, Brexit, and international events, such as the conflict in Gaza. The election process was conducted smoothly with high standards of professionalism observed at polling stations. Despite a historically low turnout of 60%, the election was characterized by a relatively peaceful post-election environment.

MUAD ZAKI
Director, Democracy & Transparency Initiative

AHMED FARIH MOHAMED
Fellow, Democracy & Transparency Initiative

By: Mutaa Aladhami

Introduction :

This research reflects the significant realignment in global geopolitics, driven by the growing economic, political, and security ties between Asia and the Middle East. This research is vital for policymakers as it offers insights into the changing power dynamics that challenge traditional Western dominance, particularly the United States, and highlights the strategic importance of Asia’s increasing influence in the Middle East. Understanding these shifts is crucial for formulating policies that ensure economic collaboration, energy security, and regional stability in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

full Article :

Mutaa Aladhami
Intern for Democracy & Transparency Initiative Under
AMEC

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*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia – The Asia Middle East Center for Research and Dialogue (AMEC) is delighted to announce that its Democracy & Transparency Initiative has been accredited by the British Electoral Commission. This prestigious recognition marks the first time a Malaysian think tank has been authorized to observe British elections, underscoring the global significance and growing influence of AMEC’s work in promoting democratic values.

AMEC, based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, is honored to be trusted by the UK for this important role. This invitation highlights the UK’s recognition of AMEC’s expertise and commitment to democracy, transparency, and fair governance. It speaks volumes about the respect and confidence placed in Malaysian institutions to contribute to international electoral processes.

Leading this high-profile mission is Mr. Muad Mohamad Zaki, Director of the Democracy & Transparency Initiative. Mr. Zaki is a notable Maldivian political figure who has played a pivotal role in establishing democracy in the Maldives. His impressive credentials include advanced studies in International Relations & Security in the UK and serving as the youngest head of relations for the Maldivian Democratic Party to the UK & EU. Mr. Zaki is accompanied by Mr. Ahmed Farih Mohamed, a distinguished Maldivian diplomat and entrepreneur. Their extensive experience and expertise in international relations will elevate AMEC’s contributions on the global stage and enhance the understanding of democratic practices and cultural nuances.

AMEC’s election observation team has arrived in the UK and is prepared to provide insights and analysis on the upcoming British Parliamentary Elections on July 4th. This initiative not only reflects AMEC’s unwavering dedication to promoting democratic values worldwide but also places Malaysia on the map as a key player in global electoral processes. The accreditation by the British Electoral Commission is a testament to AMEC’s capability and commitment to operating at the highest levels of international electoral observation, bringing pride to Malaysia and showcasing its potential in the realm of global diplomacy and governance.

DEMOCRACY & TRANSPARENCY INITIATIVE

Asia middle East Center

for research and dialogue

By Muhammad Rumi Azhari Nur Irfani

Southeast Asia, with its vibrant colors of cultural influences, presents a unique study in the interplay of diverse historical and social forces. Despite the geographical distance separating the region from the Middle East, the cultural elements of Southeast Asia echo Middle Eastern influences in many ways. These parallels manifest in various domains, including philosophy, religion, ethics, and art. Given such extensive overlaps, a pertinent question arises: How did such a geographically distant region come to bear the imprint of Middle Eastern culture so distinctly? Unraveling this question requires a historical, anthropological, and psychological exploration of the influences that have shaped Southeast Asia’s cultural identity.

Historically, Southeast Asia and the Middle East’s cultural identities were shaped by their thriving trade networks. The Spice Route, active between the 7th and 10th centuries A.D., was a vital conduit for sharing commodities, ideologies, beliefs, and traditions. Middle Eastern traders, acting as cultural emissaries, significantly influenced Southeast Asia’s coastal regions. This cultural exchange deepened with the rise of Muslim traders, notably the Bugis and Malay, in the 18th century. Their wide-reaching trade networks amplified the spread of Islam and Arabian influence. Further, mid-18th century immigrants from Hadhramaut—a culturally rich region in Yemen—strengthened the Middle Eastern influence on Southeast Asia’s culture, introducing their distinct religious and cultural practices to the region (Shimada, 2019). 

Franz Boas’ Diffusion Theory sheds light on this cultural interplay. It suggests cultural traits can transfer from one society to another, rather than being solely indigenous. Coastal societies in Southeast Asia, such as Indonesia, Brunei, and Malaysia, didn’t just receive these traits passively. They adapted them to their social structures, a process fostered by ongoing contact with traders (Boas, 2015). Consequently, this didn’t just lead to the adoption of certain Middle Eastern customs or practices; it also led to a significant transformation in societal norms, ethical frameworks, and religious orientations. This widespread cultural diffusion effectively restructured the social fabric of these societies, setting the foundation for a cultural legacy that continues to shape their identity.

Another notable aspect of this cultural interchange is the adoption of Middle Eastern philosophies, particularly Islam, in Southeast Asia. The region was no stranger to foreign philosophies, with the teachings of Chinese Confucianism and Budhism, along with Indian Hinduism, already ingrained in various societies. Despite this, Islam carved out its niche within these coastal communities. Theory of Confirmation Bias might be a suitable explanation of this phenomenon. According to this theory, new information that aligns with existing beliefs or offers a simpler understanding is more readily assimilated (Draper & Nichols, 2013; Fernandes, 2023; Nickerson, 1998; Ruzzier & Woo, 2023). In this light, the straightforward socio-political tenets of Islam might have seemed less complex compared to the metaphysical nuances of Indian and Chinese philosophies. This could account for why Islam resonated so strongly with the local populace, leading to the establishment of numerous Sultanates in Southeast Asia.

Despite the significant cultural assimilation along the coastal regions, the transition was not without its complexities. As Islamic influences permeated the region, particularly in nations like Thailand, the inland areas witnessed protracted conflicts. The expansion of Islamic Sultanates into these territories often clashed with the existing non-Muslim kingdoms, causing wars that spanned centuries. A clear example is the intermittent conflicts between the Sultanate of Malacca, a prominent maritime Islamic kingdom in the 15th century, and the Kingdom of Ayutthaya in present-day Thailand. These disputes were not merely about territorial expansion but reflected deeper cultural differences and resistance against the adoption of Middle Eastern philosophies (Ann Kordas et al., 2022; Chris Quan, 2022; Joll, 2012).

These policies served as shields against cultural changes from the coast, helping these kingdoms retain their identities. Geography also played a role, protecting them from direct Middle Eastern influence. Today, this past is visible in their culture. For instance, Thailand remains Buddhist despite being between Muslim-majority Malaysia and Indonesia. Similarly, Cambodia, Laos, and parts of Vietnam have kept their unique blend of Theravada Buddhism and local traditions (Von Der Mehden, 1980). These kingdoms, fortified by their geopolitical locations, were somewhat insulated from the cultural changes sweeping the coastal areas, allowing them to preserve their unique identities. This divergence in cultural evolution has led to the coexistence of Islamic and non-Islamic traditions in Southeast Asia, a testament to the region’s diversity.

As the region evolved socio-politically, the Middle Eastern influence remained pervasive, shaping various aspects of Southeast Asian civilizations. However, the pace of cultural assimilation varied, slowing down as societies became more aware and proud of their unique identities. According to the study by Abramitzky et al. (2020), it is argued that the rate of cultural conversion nowadays are slower compared to the past decades. In modern times, while Southeast Asian nations actively engage in global dialogues, they still strive to maintain their distinct cultural identities. This would explain the reason of why at the present, the transformation of cultural and philosophical affinity is not prevalent as it was before the modern times.

The vibrant cultural realm of Southeast Asia, woven with threads of Middle Eastern influence, is an enduring testament to centuries-old trade networks and the spread of philosophies like Islam. Such exchanges have indelibly shaped Southeast Asia, from its coastal societies—altered by their interactions with traders—to its inland areas, which retained unique identities. Today, the region stands as a diverse meld of traditions, beliefs, and practices. Despite a slow-down in cultural assimilation due to modern times, this interconnected heritage continues to shape the area’s future. Thus, Southeast Asia’s narrative underscores the profound, transformative power of cultural exchange and the lasting bonds it forms, transcending both time and distance.

References

Abramitzky, R., Boustan, L., & Eriksson, K. (2020). Do Immigrants Assimilate More Slowly Today than in the Past? American Economic Review. Insights, 2(1), 125. https://doi.org/10.1257/AERI.20190079

Ann Kordas, Ryan J. Lynch, Brooke Nelson, & Julie Tatlock. (2022). The Malacca Sultanate. In World History Volume 2, from 1400 (Vol. 2). OpenStax. https://openstax.org/books/world-history-volume-2/pages/2-2-the-malacca-sultanate

Boas, F. (2015). The Diffusion of Cultural Traits. Social Research: An International Quarterly, 82(1), 177–186. https://doi.org/10.1353/SOR.2015.0001

Chris Quan. (2022, November 2). Ayutthaya Kingdom. Asian Highlights. https://www.asiahighlights.com/thailand/ayutthaya-kingdom

Draper, P., & Nichols, R. (2013). Diagnosing Bias in Philosophy of Religion. The Monist, 96(3), 420–446. https://doi.org/10.5840/MONIST201396319

Fernandes, M. R. (2023). Confirmation bias in social networks. Mathematical Social Sciences, 123, 59–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.MATHSOCSCI.2023.02.007

Joll, C. M. (2012). Indic, Islamic and Thai Influences. Muslim Merit-Making in Thailand’s Far-South, 25–60. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2485-3_2

Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175–220. https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175

Ruzzier, C. A., & Woo, M. D. (2023). Discrimination with inaccurate beliefs and confirmation bias. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 210, 379–390. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JEBO.2023.04.018

Shimada, R. (2019). Southeast Asia and International Trade: Continuity and Change in Historical Perspective. 55–71. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-3131-2_3

Von Der Mehden, F. R. (1980). Religion and development in South-east Asia: A comparative study. World Development, 8(7–8), 545–553. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(80)90039-X

By MOHD AMMAR ZIKRY

Introduction

India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have established a rich and evolving bilateral trade relationship. From a humble beginning with an annual exchange of US$180 million in the 1970s to a robust partnership today, this relationship has exhibited remarkable resilience and strategic importance. This paper will explore this partnership’s origins, growth, challenges, and prospects, demonstrating the significance of its shared strategic vision in driving the future of its trade relations.

Historical Background and Evolution

The trading relationship between India and the UAE can be traced back several centuries when traders voyaged across the Arabian Sea to exchange goods. It took a formal turn in the 1970s with an annual trade volume of US$180 million. The relationship evolved progressively over the decades, with the UAE emerging as India’s largest trading partner in the fiscal year 2012-13. Given the UAE’s small population, this attests to its strategic location and economic policies. This association was based on economics and fortified by cultural and personal ties.

The trade relationship between India and the UAE has a deep historical origin, dating back centuries when traders would sail across the Arabian Sea to exchange goods. This relationship took a more formal and strategic turn in the 1970s. The trade volume was relatively modest during this period, amounting to US$180 million annually.

In the following years, the relationship between the two countries grew more vigorous, with the UAE becoming one of India’s top three exporting nations. By the fiscal year 2012-13, the UAE had become India’s largest trading partner, a significant achievement considering the UAE’s small population size.

The growth of bilateral trade relations has been systematic and strategic, strengthening the countries’ economic, commercial, and strategic partnerships. This strategic relationship has also been complemented by strong cultural and people-to-people ties, with a sizeable Indian diaspora residing in the UAE. Overall, the evolution of India-UAE trade relations is a testament to both nations’ mutual understanding, shared interests, and strategic vision.

Current Patterns and Trends

As of 2021, India-UAE trade increased to US$72.8 billion (IBEF, 2023). The UAE invested more than US$4 billion in India in FY2020 through its sovereign wealth funds, signifying the growing importance of India as an investment destination for the UAE  (Palit, 2022). Defence cooperation also has been steadily growing, reinforcing their comprehensive strategic partnership (Ministry of External Affairs – Government of India, 2020). 

According to a report by KPMG (2022), trade between India and the UAE has increased significantly over the years (see Table 1):

Year	Exports	Imports	Total Trade
2016	30,000	19,000	49,000
2017	33,000	21,000	54,000
2018	30,000	28,000	58,000
2019	29,000	31,000	60,000
2020	17,000	16,000	33,000

Note. Adapted from “India-UAE bilateral trade and investment report” by KPMG, 2022 (https://kpmg.com/ae/en/home/insights/2022/02/india-uae-bilateral-trade-and-investment-report.html)

The table shows the bilateral trade between India and UAE from 2016 to 2020 regarding exports, imports and total trade. It shows that the trade peaked in 2019 at USD 60 billion but declined in 2020 due to the pandemic. It also shows that India has a trade surplus with UAE, meaning it exports more than it imports from UAE. Nevertheless, the trade volume has grown significantly, from US$180 million in the 1970s to USD 60 billion in 2019, and is expected to reach US$100 billion by 2030. This shows the high potential for business and investment opportunities between the two countries, as they have diversified their trade sectors and expanded their cooperation in various fields.

Challenges and Opportunities

While trade relations have been thriving, both countries face several challenges, including geopolitical factors, regional integration, market access, and regulatory barriers. The need to safeguard critical supply chains and diversify trade partners are factors shaping their Free Trade Agreement (FTA) engagements (Palit, 2022). Nonetheless, these challenges also present opportunities for enhancing cooperation, such as improving regulatory harmonisation, enhancing mutual investments, and strengthening the strategic partnership.

The two countries also signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in February this year, giving market access to 97 per cent of tariff lines accounting for 99 per cent of Indian exports. The CEPA was the first signed by India in the Middle East and North Africa region and by the UAE in any country worldwide.

However, some challenges and opportunities exist in bilateral trade relations between India and the UAE. Some of the challenges include:

• Diversifying the trade basket beyond petroleum products, gems, and jewellery, which account for most trade between India and the UAE (2016-2020). 
• Enhancing connectivity and logistics infrastructure to facilitate trade flows and reduce costs. Addressing non-tariff barriers such as standards, certifications, and regulations that may affect market access. 

Some of the opportunities include: 

• Leveraging the strategic location of the UAE as a gateway to Africa, Europe, and Central Asia for Indian exports. 
• Exploring new sectors of cooperation such as fintech, clean energy and climate action, food security, sustainability, digital payments, cyber security, cryptocurrencies, and advanced technologies. 
• Increasing investment flows in both directions, especially coal, oil and gas, and real estate. 

Future Prospects

As we look ahead, the impact of global market trends, oil prices, and economic policies will continue to shape the future of India-UAE trade relations. The world is gradually shifting towards renewable energy, and the oil demand may decline over the coming decades. This transition presents an opportunity for both countries to invest in and trade renewable energy technologies. The growth of digital economies also offers potential for cooperation in sectors such as e-commerce, fintech, and artificial intelligence. With the right economic policies and a strategic vision, India and the UAE can further navigate these global shifts and strengthen their trade relationship.

Conclusion

The bilateral trade relationship between India and UAE has proven to be dynamic and resilient, persisting through global market trends, fluctuating oil prices, and evolving economic policies. From modest beginnings, this relationship has grown into a partnership of strategic importance for both countries, with trade volumes reflecting the depth of their economic cooperation.

The evolution of India-UAE trade relations is a testament to their mutual understanding, shared interests, and strategic vision. The shared vision of prosperity and strategic collaboration between India and the UAE holds a beacon of promise, guiding their journey as they continue to shape the future of their bilateral trade relations.

(999 WORDS)

REFERENCES

IBEF. (2023). India-UAE Trade. https://www.ibef.org/indian-exports/india-uae-trade

KPMG. (2022). India-UAE Bilateral Trade and Investment Report. Retrieved May 19, 2023, from https://kpmg.com/ae/en/home/insights/2022/02/india-uae-bilateral-trade-and-investment-report.html.

Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. (2020). Bilateral Brief February 2020. Retrieved May 19, 2023, from https://mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/Bilateral_Brief_feb_2020_.pdf.

Palit, A. (2022). India-United Arab Emirates CEPA: New Beginning in India’s Trade Engagement. Retrieved May 19, 2023, from https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/papers/india-united-arab-emirates-cepa-new-beginning-in-indias-trade-engagement/

By Fito Reyhantara

Introduction
The Silk Road stands as an enduring symbol of the historical ties between the Middle
East and Asia. Spanning over several millennia, this ancient network of trade routes played a
crucial role in connecting civilizations and facilitating the exchange of goods, ideas, and
cultures. The Silk Road was not a single, fixed route, but a complex web of paths that stretched
across vast territories, encompassing diverse landscapes and peoples.
The origins of the Silk Road can be traced back to the Han Dynasty in China around
130 BCE. This period marked the beginning of a significant trade relationship between the
Middle East and Asia, as Chinese silk, renowned for its exquisite quality, became a highly
coveted commodity in the West. The Middle East, with its strategic geographical location,
served as a vital crossroad where the Silk Road intersected with other trade routes, branching
out into Europe, Africa, and the Indian subcontinent.
The Silk Road was more than a mere conduit for commerce; it was a conduit for cultural
and intellectual exchange as well. Along its extensive routes, diverse civilizations interacted,
sharing not only goods but also ideas, technologies, languages, and religious beliefs. Buddhist
missionaries from India, Muslim merchants from the Arabian Peninsula, and European
travelers like Marco Polo all traversed the Silk Road, leaving indelible imprints on the societies
they encountered.
Today, the legacy of the Silk Road continues to resonate. It serves as a reminder of the
historical interconnections between the Middle East and Asia and highlights the power of trade
and cultural exchange in shaping societies. As globalization and interconnectedness define the
contemporary world, understanding the historical context and significance of the Silk Road
becomes even more relevant in fostering cooperation, diplomacy, and mutual understanding
between Middle Eastern and Asian nations.
Body
The term “Silk Road” itself was coined by the German geographer Ferdinand von
Richthofen in the late 19th century. However, it is important to note that the Silk Road was not
a single, unified route but rather a network of interconnected paths that spanned thousands of
kilometers. It stretched from China in the east to the Mediterranean Sea in the west, with
branching routes that extended into Central Asia, the Indian subcontinent, and beyond.
The primary purpose of the Silk Road was to facilitate the trade of valuable
commodities, most notably silk. Chinese silk, renowned for its exquisite craftsmanship and
high quality, became a highly sought-after luxury item in the West. It was lightweight, durable,
and had a high value-to-weight ratio, making it ideal for long-distance trade. However, silk was
just one of the many goods exchanged along the Silk Road. The routes also facilitated the trade
of spices, precious metals, gemstones, ceramics, textiles, tea, horses, and various agricultural
products.

The Middle East played a pivotal role in the Silk Road’s historical trajectory. As a
crucial link between East and West, the Middle East served as a hub of commercial activity and
cultural exchange. Major trade centers such as Palmyra in Syria, Palmyra in Iraq, Baghdad,
Damascus, and Cairo emerged as bustling cosmopolitan cities where goods from distant lands
were bought, sold, and distributed.
The Silk Road played a pivotal role in shaping the economies of both the Middle East
and Asia. It fostered commercial activity, encouraged cultural exchange, and facilitated the
diffusion of ideas and technologies. For the Middle East, the Silk Road brought economic
prosperity as the region became a hub for trade and commerce. Cities along the route, such as
Palmyra in Syria and Palmyra in Iraq, flourished as bustling centers of exchange, showcasing
the region’s rich cultural heritage.
In Asia, the Silk Road stimulated economic growth, linking diverse civilizations and
promoting the spread of knowledge and innovations. Chinese silk, highly sought after in the
West, became a key driver of economic development, establishing China as a dominant player
in global trade. Asian societies, including the Parthians, Sogdians, and Kushans, capitalized on
the economic opportunities provided by the Silk Road, facilitating the flow of goods and ideas
across vast distances.
While the Silk Road as a physical trade route declined over time, its legacy remains
deeply embedded in the cultural and historical fabric of the Middle East and Asia. The exchange
of goods and ideas fostered cross-cultural interactions and left an indelible mark on the
development of art, architecture, language, and cuisine. The spread of religions, such as
Buddhism, Islam, and Christianity, owes much to the Silk Road, as they were carried along its
routes by merchants, pilgrims, and scholars.
The Silk Road also nurtured intellectual and academic exchanges, with scholars and
travelers documenting their observations and experiences. Notable figures like Marco Polo and
Ibn Battuta recorded their journeys along the Silk Road, providing valuable insights into the
societies and cultures they encountered.
Conclusion
The Silk Road stands as a testament to the enduring ties between the Middle East and
Asia. Through its historical significance and impact on regional economies, it exemplifies the
power of trade in fostering cultural exchange and economic prosperity. Today, as global
connectivity expands, the lessons of the Silk Road continue to resonate, emphasizing the
importance of cooperation, understanding, and collaboration between Middle Eastern and
Asian nations.

References
Adshead, S. A. M. “The Silk Road: Trade, Travel, War, and Faith.” Reaktion Books, 2013.
Christian, David. “Silk Roads or Steppe Roads? The Silk Roads in World History.” Journal of
World History, vol. 11, no. 1, 2000, pp. 1-26.
Foltz, Richard C. “Religions of the Silk Road: Premodern Patterns of Globalization.” Palgrave
Macmillan, 2010.
Hill, John E. “Through the Jade Gate: China to Rome: A Study of the Silk Routes 1st to 2nd
Centuries CE.” BookSurge Publishing, 2009.
Hansen, Valerie. “The Silk Road: A New History.” Oxford University Press, 2012.
Latham, Edward. “The Silk Road: An Illustrated History.” Hippocrene Books, 2002.
Liu, Xinru. “The Silk Road in World History.” Oxford University Press, 2010.

As part of our commitment to promoting democracy and electoral transparency in the Asian and Middle Eastern regions, AMEC’s Observation Mission to the Republic of Maldives has arrived to observe the upcoming Presidential Election. We commenced our mission on September 7, 2023. We recognize the importance of this election in the democratic process of the Republic of Maldives and stand ready to provide an impartial and comprehensive assessment of the electoral process. The primary objective of the AMEC’s Observation Mission is to assess the overall conduct of the Presidential Election in accordance with international standards for free, fair, and transparent elections. The AMEC’s Observation Mission comprises experienced and qualified international observers dedicated to upholding the principles of democracy and electoral integrity. The mission team includes some of AMEC’s research fellows who have experience in election monitoring, legal affairs, political analysis, and other relevant fields. Our observation activities will follow international best practices and include meetings with relevant election authorities, political parties, civil society organizations, and other stakeholders. We will also visit polling stations across the country to observe the voting process firsthand. AMEC is committed to maintaining a neutral and impartial stance throughout the observation process. We will adhere to strict codes of conduct and professionalism to ensure our assessment is unbiased and credible. Following the conclusion of the Presidential Election, AMEC will release a comprehensive final report outlining our initial observations and findings and including a detailed analysis of the electoral process and recommendations for improvements, if applicable. Our final report will be submitted to the Government of the Republic of Maldives, the Elections Commission of Maldives, and political parties. Ultimately, the report will be made accessible to the public. We recognize the profound significance of this election to the people of Maldives and earnestly urge all stakeholders to contribute to a peaceful and orderly electoral process. We extend our gratitude to the people of Maldives for their active participation and for allowing us to be part of this momentous journey as they prepare to exercise their democratic right to vote. AMEC’s Initiative for

Democracy and Transparency

September 7, 2023

Prepared by: Abubakar Abubakar Usamn

Research fellow, Asia Middle East Center for Research and Dialogue (AMEC)

Introduction
Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Elections marked the country’s sixth consecutive election since the
return to democratic rule in 1999. As the most populous country in Africa and a significant
player in the global community, the Elections were closely watched by both domestic and
international stakeholders. The election campaigns were dominated by a range of complex and
pressing issues, such as insecurity, corruption, poverty, and unemployment, all of which posed
significant challengesto the nation’s development. The Elections were highly competitive, with
18 political parties and candidates vying for the top position. However, it eventually became a
four-horse race among the leading candidates. In this context, this essay intends to discuss the
key issues that shaped the outcome of the 2023 Presidential Elections, the lessons that can be
learned, and the implications of the results.

Electoral Process
Nigeria’s electoral process has been plagued by allegations of vote rigging, vote buying, and
violence in the past. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is responsible
for organizing and conducting the Presidential Elections, and it has introduced various
measures to ensure free and fair elections, such as the use of biometric voter identification and
electronic transmission of results, as well as the deployment of security personnel to maintain
law and order. However, despite these efforts, there have been instances of electoral
malpractices and irregularities in past elections. In response, INEC has promised to use the
Bimodal Voter Registration System (BVAS), a technological device used to identify and
accredit voters’ fingerprints and facial recognition before voting. Additionally, INEC has
introduced the Election Result Viewing Portal (IReV), an online portal where polling unit level
results are uploaded directly from the polling unit, transmitted, and published for the public.
These new measures are aimed at improving the credibility and transparency of the electoral
process in Nigeria.

Political Parties
Nigeria operates a multi-party system, with over 90 registered political parties. Among them,
the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) are the leading
political parties in the country, with the largest membership and political influence. However,
othersignificant parties,such asthe New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) and the Labour Party
(LP), have also recently gained some popularity in some parts of the country among particular
voters. The APC’s ideology centers around promoting economic growth, fighting corruption,
and improving security. On the other hand, the PDP’s ideology is centered around social justice,
democracy, and good governance. These two parties have dominated the political landscape in
Nigeria, with their policies and actions shaping the direction of the country’s politics and
development.

Presidential Elections 2023 Outcome

The table provides information about the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Elections, showing the
results for four political parties: the All Progressives Congress (APC), the People’s Democratic
Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP), and the New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP). The APC
and PDP are the leading political parties in Nigeria, with both winning 12 states each. The LP
won 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory, while the NNPP won only one state. The APC’s
candidate was Tinubu, and the PDP’s candidate was Atiku, while the LP’s candidate was Obi,
and the NNPP’s candidate was Kwankwaso. The total number of votes cast was 23,377,466,
with the APC winning the highest number of votes at 8,794,726, representing 36.61% of the
total vote cast. The PDP came in second, winning 6,984,520 votes, representing 29.07% of the

total vote cast. The LP won 6,101,533 votes, representing 25.40% of the total vote cast, while
the NNPP won 1,496,687 votes, representing 6.40% of the total vote cast.

Elections Outcome by States

Factors that Influenced Presidential Elections Outcome

• Socio-economic Issues
  The 2023 Presidential Elections in Nigeria were marked by the candidates’ plans and strategies
  for addressing the country’s complex socio-economic challenges. Poverty is a significant issue,
  with over 40% of the population living below the poverty line, while unemployment is another
  pressing challenge, with an estimated 33% of young people unemployed. Additionally,
  inadequate infrastructure, such as power, transportation, and healthcare, is a significant
  hindrance to economic development. Candidates in the election needed to demonstrate a clear
  understanding of these issues and present credible solutions to gain voter support.
  However, a currency crisis engulfed the country due to the new banknote policy of President
  Buhari and the Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, intended to curb vote buying ahead
  of the election. The poorly implemented policy led to shortages of the new currency, causing
  Tinubu and other prominent APC figures to break with Buhari, first suing to stop its enactment,
  then criticizing the administration’s handling of the situation. Surprisingly, other leading
  political parties welcomed the new currency policy expecting it to increase their chances of
  winning the elections.

• Ethnic and Religious Divisions
  Nigeria’s diversity is reflected in its purportedly more than 250 ethnic groups and its significant
  divide between Muslims and Christians. Muslims are estimated to be slightly more than
  Christians in Nigeria. In previous Presidential Elections, ethnic and religious divisions have
  played a significant role, with candidates often relying on the support of their ethnic and
  religious groups. However, this has led to accusations of nepotism, favoritism, and
  discrimination, and in some cases, it has resulted in violence and unrest. As a result,
  ethnoreligious factors have played a significant role in determining voting patterns throughout
  the country, with some voters casting their ballots based on ethnic or religious affiliation rather
  than policy positions or candidate qualifications.
  The impact of ethnoreligious factors on the outcome of the presidential elections is evident in
  the candidates’ percentage of votes from their respective political zones. The eventual winner,
  Ahmed Tinubu of APC, received 53.59% of votes from the South West, despite losing his state
  of origin to Peter Obi. Atiku Abubakar of PDP secured 50.58% of votes from the North East
  geopolitical zone, despite having the APC vice presidential candidate from the same zone. Peter
  Obi of LP received 87.78% of the total votes in the South East, his geopolitical zone. Rabiu
  Kwankwaso of NNPP, on the other hand, obtained 18.96% of the total votes in the North West,
  the highest percentage among all other geopolitical regions of the country.

Observations and Feedback on the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Elections
According to the EU EOM observers, the 2023 Nigerian presidential elections were marked by
late deployment and opening of polling stations, while polling procedures were not always
followed, and there were struggles to complete result forms. Similarly, according to the
International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute, who conducted a joint
observer mission, the election did not meet the reasonable expectations of Nigerian citizens.
Most polling units also did not post the results publicly.
Despite these issues, the election witnessed a comparatively large turnout of voters in various
geopolitical zones, according to the Observer Mission. The US congratulated the winner of the
election while acknowledging concerns over some alleged shortcomings. In terms of vote
buying, the Foreign Mission observed minimal incidences during the polls, which recorded a
high turnout of voters nationwide.

Implications on Nigeria’s Foreign Relations
Nigeria holds an important position in African politics, and its role in the international
community is crucial. The West African region has been plagued by military coups, with three
successful coups taking place in the past four years alone. The outcome of the 2023 Presidential

Elections in Nigeria will have far-reaching implications for the country’s foreign policy and
relationships with other nations. The incoming President will face the challenge of managing
complex regional and international relationships and balancing competing interests. Global
powers such as the United States, China, and the EU have all closely monitored the elections
and are looking to engage with the new administration. The elections provide an opportunity
for Nigeria to showcase its commitment to democracy and good governance, strengthening its
position as a leader in the region and beyond.

Post-election Challenges
The aftermath of the 2023 Presidential Elections in Nigeria presents several challenges that
must be addressed to ensure a smooth transition of power. One of the potential challenges is
related to the acceptance of the election results This has, so far, led to protests and even
violence, as has happened in previous elections. Another challenge is related to addressing any
instances of violence or unrest that may have arisen during or after the elections, to maintain
law and order. Mending the ethnoreligious rifts caused by the election’s outcome will also be a
challenge. Given Nigeria’s diverse ethnic and religious composition, it is crucial to address any
tensions and promote reconciliation among different groups. Additionally, the government will
need to address the issue of IPOB, a secessionist movement based in the Southeast of the
country and find ways to address their grievances while maintaining national unity.
The incoming government faces a multitude of challenges, both in terms of security and the
economy. The ongoing threats posed by banditry and religious extremist movements continue
to have devastating effects on the country, particularly in the Northern regions. Moreover,
Nigeria’s economy has been struggling in recent years, leading to a rise in youth unemployment
nationwide and a lack of opportunities. These problems are further compounded by the
alarming increases in public debt and uncontrollable fiscal difficulties. To ensure a better future
for the Nigerian people, the new administration must confront these challenges head-on.
Additionally, the issue of restructuring the country’s political system, which previous
administrations have avoided, must be addressed for sustainability and to promote greater
stability and fairness.

Implications on Future
The 2023 Presidential Elections in Nigeria are of great significance as they will shape the
country’s future development and prospects. The outcome of the elections will determine
Nigeria’s political, economic, and social policies for the next four years. It presents an
opportunity for Nigeria to address its pressing socio-economic challenges, promote national
unity and inclusivity, and reinforce its position as a leader in the region and beyond. The
elections will also serve as a platform for the country to learn important lessons for future

elections, particularly in the areas of electoral integrity, voter education, and political
leadership. It is essential that all stakeholders, including political leaders, civil society, and the
media, remain committed to upholding the principles of democracy and good governance for
the success of the elections. By learning from past experiences and addressing current
challenges, Nigeria can build a stronger and more prosperous future for all its citizens.

Recommendations
To ensure a smooth electoral process and mitigate potential challenges:

• Nigeria must establish strong and independent institutions that oversee the electoral
  process and guarantee its fairness and transparency.
• It is vital for political leaders to respect the rule of law and accept the election results,
  even if they disagree with them.
• Adequate contingency plans must be put in place to address any potential violence or
  unrest and ensure the safety and security of all citizens.
• Civil society organizations and international observers must also play a significant role
  in monitoring and reporting on the electoral process.
• The independence and impartiality of the Independent National Electoral Commission
  (INEC) is crucial to ensure a credible electoral process.
• To continuously improve the electoral process, there is a need for increased voter
  education and sensitization, and stronger sanctions for electoral offenders.
• By taking these steps, Nigeria can demonstrate its commitment to democracy and the
  peaceful transfer of power, and strengthen its position as a stable and prosperous nation.

Conclusion
The 2023 Presidential Elections in Nigeria is a defining moment for the country’s democracy
and future development. A range of critical issues have shaped the elections, including the
economy, security, corruption, ethnic and religious divisions, and international relations. It is
vital that all stakeholders work together to promote free and fair elections, uphold the rule of
law, and maintain peace and stability. The elections has provided an opportunity for Nigeria to
address its socio-economic challenges, promote national unity and inclusivity, and strengthen
its position as a leader in the region and beyond. By learning from past experiences and
addressing current challenges, Nigeria can build a more inclusive, democratic, and prosperous
society for all its citizens. Ultimately, the success of the elections will depend on the
commitment of all Nigerians to building a stronger and more prosperous future for the country.