Prepared by: Abubakar Abubakar Usamn

Research fellow, Asia Middle East Center for Research and Dialogue (AMEC)

Introduction
Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Elections marked the country’s sixth consecutive election since the
return to democratic rule in 1999. As the most populous country in Africa and a significant
player in the global community, the Elections were closely watched by both domestic and
international stakeholders. The election campaigns were dominated by a range of complex and
pressing issues, such as insecurity, corruption, poverty, and unemployment, all of which posed
significant challengesto the nation’s development. The Elections were highly competitive, with
18 political parties and candidates vying for the top position. However, it eventually became a
four-horse race among the leading candidates. In this context, this essay intends to discuss the
key issues that shaped the outcome of the 2023 Presidential Elections, the lessons that can be
learned, and the implications of the results.

Electoral Process
Nigeria’s electoral process has been plagued by allegations of vote rigging, vote buying, and
violence in the past. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is responsible
for organizing and conducting the Presidential Elections, and it has introduced various
measures to ensure free and fair elections, such as the use of biometric voter identification and
electronic transmission of results, as well as the deployment of security personnel to maintain
law and order. However, despite these efforts, there have been instances of electoral
malpractices and irregularities in past elections. In response, INEC has promised to use the
Bimodal Voter Registration System (BVAS), a technological device used to identify and
accredit voters’ fingerprints and facial recognition before voting. Additionally, INEC has
introduced the Election Result Viewing Portal (IReV), an online portal where polling unit level
results are uploaded directly from the polling unit, transmitted, and published for the public.
These new measures are aimed at improving the credibility and transparency of the electoral
process in Nigeria.

Political Parties
Nigeria operates a multi-party system, with over 90 registered political parties. Among them,
the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) are the leading
political parties in the country, with the largest membership and political influence. However,
othersignificant parties,such asthe New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) and the Labour Party
(LP), have also recently gained some popularity in some parts of the country among particular
voters. The APC’s ideology centers around promoting economic growth, fighting corruption,
and improving security. On the other hand, the PDP’s ideology is centered around social justice,
democracy, and good governance. These two parties have dominated the political landscape in
Nigeria, with their policies and actions shaping the direction of the country’s politics and
development.

Presidential Elections 2023 Outcome

The table provides information about the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Elections, showing the
results for four political parties: the All Progressives Congress (APC), the People’s Democratic
Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP), and the New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP). The APC
and PDP are the leading political parties in Nigeria, with both winning 12 states each. The LP
won 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory, while the NNPP won only one state. The APC’s
candidate was Tinubu, and the PDP’s candidate was Atiku, while the LP’s candidate was Obi,
and the NNPP’s candidate was Kwankwaso. The total number of votes cast was 23,377,466,
with the APC winning the highest number of votes at 8,794,726, representing 36.61% of the
total vote cast. The PDP came in second, winning 6,984,520 votes, representing 29.07% of the

total vote cast. The LP won 6,101,533 votes, representing 25.40% of the total vote cast, while
the NNPP won 1,496,687 votes, representing 6.40% of the total vote cast.

Elections Outcome by States

Factors that Influenced Presidential Elections Outcome

• Socio-economic Issues
  The 2023 Presidential Elections in Nigeria were marked by the candidates’ plans and strategies
  for addressing the country’s complex socio-economic challenges. Poverty is a significant issue,
  with over 40% of the population living below the poverty line, while unemployment is another
  pressing challenge, with an estimated 33% of young people unemployed. Additionally,
  inadequate infrastructure, such as power, transportation, and healthcare, is a significant
  hindrance to economic development. Candidates in the election needed to demonstrate a clear
  understanding of these issues and present credible solutions to gain voter support.
  However, a currency crisis engulfed the country due to the new banknote policy of President
  Buhari and the Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, intended to curb vote buying ahead
  of the election. The poorly implemented policy led to shortages of the new currency, causing
  Tinubu and other prominent APC figures to break with Buhari, first suing to stop its enactment,
  then criticizing the administration’s handling of the situation. Surprisingly, other leading
  political parties welcomed the new currency policy expecting it to increase their chances of
  winning the elections.

• Ethnic and Religious Divisions
  Nigeria’s diversity is reflected in its purportedly more than 250 ethnic groups and its significant
  divide between Muslims and Christians. Muslims are estimated to be slightly more than
  Christians in Nigeria. In previous Presidential Elections, ethnic and religious divisions have
  played a significant role, with candidates often relying on the support of their ethnic and
  religious groups. However, this has led to accusations of nepotism, favoritism, and
  discrimination, and in some cases, it has resulted in violence and unrest. As a result,
  ethnoreligious factors have played a significant role in determining voting patterns throughout
  the country, with some voters casting their ballots based on ethnic or religious affiliation rather
  than policy positions or candidate qualifications.
  The impact of ethnoreligious factors on the outcome of the presidential elections is evident in
  the candidates’ percentage of votes from their respective political zones. The eventual winner,
  Ahmed Tinubu of APC, received 53.59% of votes from the South West, despite losing his state
  of origin to Peter Obi. Atiku Abubakar of PDP secured 50.58% of votes from the North East
  geopolitical zone, despite having the APC vice presidential candidate from the same zone. Peter
  Obi of LP received 87.78% of the total votes in the South East, his geopolitical zone. Rabiu
  Kwankwaso of NNPP, on the other hand, obtained 18.96% of the total votes in the North West,
  the highest percentage among all other geopolitical regions of the country.

Observations and Feedback on the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Elections
According to the EU EOM observers, the 2023 Nigerian presidential elections were marked by
late deployment and opening of polling stations, while polling procedures were not always
followed, and there were struggles to complete result forms. Similarly, according to the
International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute, who conducted a joint
observer mission, the election did not meet the reasonable expectations of Nigerian citizens.
Most polling units also did not post the results publicly.
Despite these issues, the election witnessed a comparatively large turnout of voters in various
geopolitical zones, according to the Observer Mission. The US congratulated the winner of the
election while acknowledging concerns over some alleged shortcomings. In terms of vote
buying, the Foreign Mission observed minimal incidences during the polls, which recorded a
high turnout of voters nationwide.

Implications on Nigeria’s Foreign Relations
Nigeria holds an important position in African politics, and its role in the international
community is crucial. The West African region has been plagued by military coups, with three
successful coups taking place in the past four years alone. The outcome of the 2023 Presidential

Elections in Nigeria will have far-reaching implications for the country’s foreign policy and
relationships with other nations. The incoming President will face the challenge of managing
complex regional and international relationships and balancing competing interests. Global
powers such as the United States, China, and the EU have all closely monitored the elections
and are looking to engage with the new administration. The elections provide an opportunity
for Nigeria to showcase its commitment to democracy and good governance, strengthening its
position as a leader in the region and beyond.

Post-election Challenges
The aftermath of the 2023 Presidential Elections in Nigeria presents several challenges that
must be addressed to ensure a smooth transition of power. One of the potential challenges is
related to the acceptance of the election results This has, so far, led to protests and even
violence, as has happened in previous elections. Another challenge is related to addressing any
instances of violence or unrest that may have arisen during or after the elections, to maintain
law and order. Mending the ethnoreligious rifts caused by the election’s outcome will also be a
challenge. Given Nigeria’s diverse ethnic and religious composition, it is crucial to address any
tensions and promote reconciliation among different groups. Additionally, the government will
need to address the issue of IPOB, a secessionist movement based in the Southeast of the
country and find ways to address their grievances while maintaining national unity.
The incoming government faces a multitude of challenges, both in terms of security and the
economy. The ongoing threats posed by banditry and religious extremist movements continue
to have devastating effects on the country, particularly in the Northern regions. Moreover,
Nigeria’s economy has been struggling in recent years, leading to a rise in youth unemployment
nationwide and a lack of opportunities. These problems are further compounded by the
alarming increases in public debt and uncontrollable fiscal difficulties. To ensure a better future
for the Nigerian people, the new administration must confront these challenges head-on.
Additionally, the issue of restructuring the country’s political system, which previous
administrations have avoided, must be addressed for sustainability and to promote greater
stability and fairness.

Implications on Future
The 2023 Presidential Elections in Nigeria are of great significance as they will shape the
country’s future development and prospects. The outcome of the elections will determine
Nigeria’s political, economic, and social policies for the next four years. It presents an
opportunity for Nigeria to address its pressing socio-economic challenges, promote national
unity and inclusivity, and reinforce its position as a leader in the region and beyond. The
elections will also serve as a platform for the country to learn important lessons for future

elections, particularly in the areas of electoral integrity, voter education, and political
leadership. It is essential that all stakeholders, including political leaders, civil society, and the
media, remain committed to upholding the principles of democracy and good governance for
the success of the elections. By learning from past experiences and addressing current
challenges, Nigeria can build a stronger and more prosperous future for all its citizens.

Recommendations
To ensure a smooth electoral process and mitigate potential challenges:

• Nigeria must establish strong and independent institutions that oversee the electoral
  process and guarantee its fairness and transparency.
• It is vital for political leaders to respect the rule of law and accept the election results,
  even if they disagree with them.
• Adequate contingency plans must be put in place to address any potential violence or
  unrest and ensure the safety and security of all citizens.
• Civil society organizations and international observers must also play a significant role
  in monitoring and reporting on the electoral process.
• The independence and impartiality of the Independent National Electoral Commission
  (INEC) is crucial to ensure a credible electoral process.
• To continuously improve the electoral process, there is a need for increased voter
  education and sensitization, and stronger sanctions for electoral offenders.
• By taking these steps, Nigeria can demonstrate its commitment to democracy and the
  peaceful transfer of power, and strengthen its position as a stable and prosperous nation.

Conclusion
The 2023 Presidential Elections in Nigeria is a defining moment for the country’s democracy
and future development. A range of critical issues have shaped the elections, including the
economy, security, corruption, ethnic and religious divisions, and international relations. It is
vital that all stakeholders work together to promote free and fair elections, uphold the rule of
law, and maintain peace and stability. The elections has provided an opportunity for Nigeria to
address its socio-economic challenges, promote national unity and inclusivity, and strengthen
its position as a leader in the region and beyond. By learning from past experiences and
addressing current challenges, Nigeria can build a more inclusive, democratic, and prosperous
society for all its citizens. Ultimately, the success of the elections will depend on the
commitment of all Nigerians to building a stronger and more prosperous future for the country.

Prepared By: Muath Seyam & Nael Oeda

Israeli Occupation Army Assassinated 29 Palestinians

the Israeli occupation army continued its aggression against the
Palestinians, killing 29 Palestinians inside the West Bank and al-Quds city
in October 2022. The occupation army also arrested dozens of Palestinian
youths. In response to the aggressions of the Israeli occupation forces (IOF), Palestinian
resistance groups continue to target the IOF’s checkpoints that besiege Palestinian cities
and camps in the West Bank. The activities of the resistance groups in Nablus city and
Jenin city represent the primary source of concern for the occupation army. The IOF
constantly attempts to besiege and storm those cities and kill Palestinian resistance
members inside. The occupation army used an explosive device attached to a motorcycle
to assassinate a member of the Palestinian resistance groups inside the city of Nablus.
Human rights organizations assert that what the occupation is doing inside
Palestinian cities are crimes against humanity and extrajudicial killings. Israel and the
United States of America continue to pressure the Palestinian Authority (PA) to arrest the
resistance fighters. The PA’s security services are showing a timid response to the order,
as they are on the horns of a dilemma, whether to continue the security coordination with
the occupation or to take the Palestinian people’s side by covering and supporting
resistance groups.

The 25th Knesset Elections to Aggravate Political Instability in Israel

fter a fierce race between the camp of former prime minister Benjamin
Netanyahu and the camp of the current prime minister Yair Lapid, the
results of the 25th elections for the Israeli Knesset, which were voted on
November 1, 2022, showed a lead in favour of Netanyahu’s far-right-wing bloc, allowing
him to form the new government. The current electoral scene is dominated by the trend of
Israeli society towards the Zionist far-right amid the confinement of the influence of left-wing parties. This election is the fifth in 4 years, and the results indicate that despite Netanyahu’s success, there are possibilities of a politically heterogeneous government to
be formed by the winning camp.
Therefore, the scenario to re-run the elections once any party withdraws from the
coalition is most likely to happen. Europe and the United States have taken a wide range
of steps to boost Lapid’s chances, trying to prevent the annoying and embarrassing
Netanyahu from being back in power.

Unfavourable Expectations for Algerian-brokered deal to end disputes BetweenFatah and Hamas

Algeria hosted the 31st Arab League Summit aiming to achieve some
gains, most notably the achievement of a Palestinian-Palestinian
reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas movements after a 15-year-old
split. It started with Fatah’s refusal to deal with the government formed by Hamas after
winning the 2006 elections. Algeria held several meetings that began a year ago,
culminating in the signing of an agreement between the two factions.
Although, insiders described the deal as nothing more than a protocol agreement.
They firmly expect that Fatah will refuse to implement the terms of the agreement despite
signing it. Algeria is one of the countries that strongly support the Palestinian cause.
Besides, it has genuine respect among the Palestinian factions. Still, the internal
Palestinian situation is complicated due to the intersection of Israeli and American
interests in favour of the continuation of the Palestinian rift.

Prepared by:
Nael Oeda and Muath Seyam

This briefing will try to provide the reader with a clear perception about the Judaization
procedures happening in Al-Quds city and the attempts of the Israeli occupation to create a
new reality there that will lead the Middle East region towards more tensions.

Background Information

1- The “Judaization of Al-Quds” is a term that describes the continuous attempts by the
Israeli authorities to strip the historical Islamic and Christian identity from the city,
and to impose a new identity, the Jewish. This is done through several means :

• The settlement, confiscation of land and displacing of Palestinians from their
  property inside the city.
• Withdrawing IDs from Palestinians in Al-Quds city, leaving them without identification papers
• Taking advantage of international support. The most important of which was the violation of the international arrangements in force by the United States under President Trump’s administration and the relocating of its embassy to Al-Quds city .
• Issuing laws targeting the Palestinian existence, such as regulation and planning law, and the law of banning the call to prayer (Athan) over loudspeakers in November 2016.
• The Israeli violations against Masjid Al-Aqsa such as carrying out excavations under the Masjid, impeding the restoration process, preventing groups of Palestinians from praying in it, denying residents of the Gaza Strip from reaching and entering it, facilitating the Zionist incursions, and unleashing the settlers to storm in and violate under the protection of the Israeli police and army.

What is Happening and Causing Concerns Right Now?

1. Preparations and calls are being made by the Zionist settlers to carry out the largest
   historic storming in the Masjid Al-Aqsa on the 29th of September, on the so-called
   “Hebrew New Year ”.
2. The extremist “Temple” organizations, on September 6, 2022, submitted a petition to
   the Israeli Supreme Court to allow settlers to blow the trumpet inside Masjid Al-Aqsa,
   during the so-called “Hebrew New Year”. They even demanded Throne’s botanical
   oblations to be allowed in, including citrus, palm fronds, willow branches and
   “myrtle” roses during the biblical “Throne Day”, which runs from October 10 to 17,
   2022.
3. This escalation and acceleration of the Judaization measures come within the Zionist-
   Israeli plan to Judaize Masjid Al-Aqsa, but certain factors contributed to this, most notably :

• The tendency of the Zionist society towards adopting extreme right-wing ideas
  more than ever before .
• The Israeli election race, which will start in November 2022, coincides with the
  Jewish holidays, and this will push the political and partisan level to meet a
  large part of the aspirations of the Zionist right-wing supporters to win their
  votes, all of which are Judaizing aspirations targeting Al-Quds city .

Expected Repercussions of Recent Developments

1. It is expected that the Zionist Judaization movements to cause tension inside Al-Quds
   city and the rest of the Palestinian cities, especially regarding the issue of incursions of
   Masjid Al-Aqsa. Furthermore, the tension might extend to the Middle East region and
   the rest of the Islamic and Arab countries (a varying levels) because of the status that
   Al-Quds city has among Muslims all over the globe.
2. It is expected that popular Palestinian confrontations with the occupation will erupt
   and may extend to an armed confrontation with the Palestinian resistance in the Gaza
   Strip. There is a set of previous evidence of rounds of mass and armed confrontations
   caused by Israel’s Judaization policy in Al-Quds city and inside Masjid Al-Aqsa, which in its entirety are provocative measures to the feelings of Palestinian and non-Palestinian Muslims from the Arab and Islamic nation. One of the most recent of these rounds was the confrontation with the “Sword of Al-Quds”, which lasted from May 10, 2021, to May 21, 2021.

What is Required?

The components of the Arab and Islamic nation (official, partisan, scholars, and
institutions) are urgently required to act with practical positions, to address the influential
friends in international politics such as countries, ambassadors, and organizations, and to
contact influencers and pressures on the occupation to deter it from its Judaizing
movements, and to ensure that the situation in Palestine does not explode. They are
required at the immediate, tactical, and strategic levels to provide political, diplomatic,
material, and moral support to the Palestinian people, in a manner that enhances the
steadfastness of the Palestinian people against the Israeli occupation and enables them to
obtain their rights in liberation and enjoy civilian rights within an independent Palestinian
state.

Palestine Studies Project