From Ukraine to Taiwan: Why ASEAN Must Prepare for the Next Phase of Great-Power Proxy Politics

By Muad M Zaki. 

Senior Fellow, Asia Middle East Center 

The conflict in Ukraine did not emerge in a vacuum. It was preceded by years of legislative positioning, security assistance, narrative framing, and political signalling that incrementally narrowed diplomatic space and hardened opposing camps. Today, similar instruments are being assembled in the Indo-Pacific, —this time around Taiwan.

For ASEAN governments, the danger is not limited to a potential cross-Strait crisis. The greater strategic risk lies in how intensified U.S.–China competition may instrumentalise Southeast Asia internally, weakening ASEAN cohesion through political fragmentation, selective alignment, and domestic interference. For Chinese policymakers, this trajectory signals that as more Western states diversify or recalibrate their strategic ties toward China, Washington’s incentives to fracture regional unity where it lacks control will only grow.

The Ukraine Precedent: Escalation Without a Single Trigger

Ukraine demonstrates how a major power conflict can be cultivated without an immediate casus belli. Long before February 2022, Ukraine had already become embedded in a web of external security cooperation, military training programs, arms transfers, sanctions regimes, and diplomatic commitments that made neutrality increasingly untenable.

Crucially, escalation occurred through policy architecture, not sudden decisions. Legislative acts, multilateral coordination mechanisms, and political signalling created an environment in which confrontation became structurally likely,—even  if not inevitable.

This pattern matters because it shows how proxy dynamics are not accidental; they are built.

Taiwan as the Next Structural Flashpoint

Taiwan is now being positioned within a similar architecture. U.S. congressional initiatives, security cooperation frameworks, and strategic communications increasingly treat Taiwan less as a status-quo issue and more as a forward line in a broader containment strategy aimed at China.

This concern is not confined to analysts. In opposing the PROTECT Taiwan Act, Thomas Massie warned that such legislation mirrors the type of commitments discussed prior to the Ukraine war and risks drawing the United States into another foreign conflict through pre-commitment rather than deliberation.

For Beijing, Taiwan is an internal issue that has been deliberately internationalised. For Washington, Taiwan is increasingly framed as a test case for credibility, deterrence, and alliance leadership. These framings are fundamentally incompatible, —and that incompatibility generates risk for the entire region.


Why ASEAN Is Strategically Exposed

ASEAN’s vulnerability does not stem from weakness, but from centrality. As U.S. strategic focus shifts toward Asia, Southeast Asia becomes both a prize and a pressure point.

Three dynamics deserve particular attention:

Political Fragmentation as Strategy

Where direct control is limited, influence often shifts inward and—toward shaping domestic political outcomes. Support for particular political factions, civil society groups, media narratives, or elite networks can gradually polarise societies along external alignment lines. Over time, this erodes ASEAN’s consensus-based decision-making model from within.

Selective Alignment Pressure

As individual ASEAN states deepen economic or strategic ties with China, external pressure will likely increase to pull them back into competitive blocs. This pressure may not take the form of overt coercion, but rather conditional partnerships, reputational framing, and internal political leverage.

Intelligence and Information Vulnerability

Foreign interference today rarely resembles Cold War espionage. It operates through influence operations, funding channels, narrative amplification, and regulatory pressure points. Without coordinated counter-interference frameworks, ASEAN states risk becoming laboratories for proxy competition.

The Canada Signal —and Why It Matters

Recent recalibrations by countries such as Canada and other traditional U.S. partners toward deeper engagement with China—particularly on trade, climate, and multilateral diplomacy—carry an unintended consequence: they reduce Washington’s leverage within its traditional alliance network.

Historically, when external alignment space narrows, competitive powers compensate by seeking advantage in regions where institutional cohesion is weaker or contested. ASEAN, by virtue of its diversity and non-alignment tradition, becomes a natural target.

For ASEAN policymakers, this means that external rivalry may increasingly manifest as internal stress rather than external confrontation.

Implications for Chinese Policymakers

For Beijing, the lesson of Ukraine is not simply about military escalation; it is about how political ecosystems are shaped long before conflict begins. As China’s global partnerships expand—including with Western middle powers—U.S. strategy is likely to focus less on direct containment and more on preventing the consolidation of alternative regional orders.

ASEAN unity, particularly when economically integrated with China, represents such an alternative.

This suggests that China’s long-term interests aligns with ASEAN institutional resilience, non-interference norms, and regional autonomy —rather than accelerated bloc politics that could legitimise external intervention.

What ASEAN Governments Should Do Now

This is not a call for alignment, but for strategic self-defence.

ASEAN governments should consider:

  1. Strengthening internal cohesion mechanisms
    Reinforce ASEAN’s consensus model and resist bilateral arrangements that undermine regional unity.
  2. Enhancing counter-interference capacity
    Intelligence services must adapt from counter-espionage to counter-influence through— tracking political funding, narrative coordination, and external leverage operations.
  3. Preserving strategic ambiguity collectively
    Neutrality is most credible when exercised as a bloc, not as individual states under pressure.
  4. Separating economic cooperation from security rivalry
    ASEAN should continue engaging all major powers economically while insulating domestic political processes from external strategic agendas.

Policy Recommendation

Ukraine shows the cost of becoming the arena through which great powers manage rivalry. Taiwan risks becoming the next test case. ASEAN must ensure it does not become the silent third.

The choice facing Southeast Asia is not between Washington and Beijing, but between regional autonomy and strategic fragmentation. Autonomy requires unity, vigilance, and the insulation of domestic politics from external influence, regardless of its source.

History is clear: proxy conflicts rarely begin with war, yet—and rarely end where they start.

*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

Mr. Muad M Zaki   

Senior Fellow

WRITTEN BY:

Muad Zaki
Director of Democracy & Transparency Initiative,
AMEC
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Example of Force: The United States and What Lies Ahead for ASEAN

By Abel Josafat Manullang
The international system we live in now has witnessed numerous tumultuous chapters in the past year alone. From the development in the Middle East to the ongoing war in Eastern Europe, one giant was present through it all: the United States.

Recently, the US has embarked on some voyages that caused ripples across the globe. The unilateral tariffs and the following transactional diplomacy that followed are the harbingers of what is to come from the US under its new administration.

However, these unilateral moves do not exclusively revolve around trade activities. The recent capture of Venezuela president in its own national territory and the recent blockade on Cuba’s oil access demonstrated just how unrestrained the US can be in advancing its interests.

These moves from the US signify a change in its approach to its pursuit of interests. It demonstrates how selective the US has come to value the many international institutions it has spearheaded and stood by in the past. In other words, it now relies on its example of force as opposed to the force of its example. 

To add to this, the capriciousness of the US is also important to note, primarily in the way it defines its interests and security, which may result in abandonment of its past commitments. With such a giant on the horizon, not to mention one that many states have developed a reliance on, it will inevitably force changes to the way they manage their ties with the US.

The heart of the Indo-Pacific: ASEAN and Southeast Asia

The capricious nature of the US causes concerns for many states, including here in Southeast Asia. Other writers have posited that the same fate that befell Venezuela can also manifest in Southeast Asia. There exist some holes that can be poked by the US should it find the region and the timing fitting for its interests. This is further amplified by how some states there have leaned closer to either the US or China.

When talking about Southeast Asia, one cannot dismiss its regional bloc, ASEAN, which has witnessed various developments both internally and externally. For the former, ASEAN has come to cater to new fields in which the interests of its member states lie. The same goes for the latter, as it bridges its member states’ interests with those of the external partners. As a result, it is no surprise that ASEAN has come to have its centrality in the region.

While ASEAN’s centrality can still be felt with its vast network of partners, ASEAN must navigate the future with extreme caution in the strategic landscape. It is true that the US has its attention on accentuating its presence in the Western Hemisphere, but one cannot eliminate its presence in the Indo-Pacific as its object of interest, especially given the strong show of force it has there.

To add it up, its recent moves can be seen as warning shots for everyone, including Southeast Asia as the heart of the Indo-Pacific, that the US would take a no-holds-barred approach in pursuing its interests or responding to anyone it deems as a threat. For this, as Hoang Thi Ha and Aries A. Arugay note, it is important for the region to overcome its vulnerabilities lest the US use it as a pretext to accentuate its presence in the region. While the prior Cambodia-Thailand conflict was not used as a pretext for something akin to Venezuela’s case, the capricious nature of the US makes it best to reduce any leeway that can be capitalized.

Amidst the presence of a capricious and powerful giant, ASEAN’s relevance and centrality will be tested. This puts in more considerations, given the already enormous attention the region has received, specifically from the US and China. For all of China’s far-reaching presence, one cannot discount the presence and influence the US has as a Pacific power. To this end, ASEAN needs to maintain its centrality hand in hand with that of the US, considering the interconnectedness they share.

Additionally, ASEAN also needs to bolster its ties with its other partners. For this, ASEAN can benefit from the many strategic partnerships it has developed over the decades. They can serve as the foundation for more diversified ties that can cushion any tumults that emerge from the unilateral strides of the US or other partners. Such a feat is not only something that won’t cause alarm, given ASEAN’s record, but it also resonates with its other partners who seek to diversify their ties.

Now, with the long road ahead in 2026, ASEAN and its member states must brace themselves for the volatile landscape before them. Against such a rough sea, the states of Southeast Asia have the choice to use ASEAN as the very forum to harmonize and synergize their strides. Afterall, for all its shortcomings, ASEAN still has countless things to offer. However, it can only be materialized provided the member states have the willingness to navigate through their differences.

The fork in the road will then open the door for the question of whether ASEAN persist and maintains its cohesion as a regional bloc or will it succumb to the force of the great powers. The answer to this question will show itself over the coming months and years.


*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

About the writer:

Abel Josafat Manullang is a writer at SiPalingHI! Media and a researcher of the Research Development House. He has developed numerous works surrounding maritime security and regional dynamics of Southeast Asia and other regions, which can be accessed through his Google Scholar page. Instagram: instagram.com/abel_jman

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The Kurdish Question in the Middle East: A Comparative Perspective

By Beatrice Liverzani:

The Kurdish political landscape is shaped by a complex and evolving pursuit of self-governance across four states—Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran—each of which presents distinct political, legal, and historical conditions. Despite shared linguistic and cultural markers, Kurdish political trajectories have diverged significantly, reflecting the interaction between post-imperial state formation, regional security considerations, and international legal norms as described by Gunter, (2014).

Historical Roots and the Absence of Kurdish Statehood

Kurdish aspirations for self-determination emerged prominently in the aftermath of the First World War, influenced by international principles such as Wilson’s Fourteen Points and early post-Ottoman treaties. The Treaty of Sèvres (1920) initially envisaged the possibility of Kurdish autonomy, while the Treaty of Lausanne (1923) ultimately consolidated the territorial integrity of the new Turkish Republic and neighbouring states, effectively excluding Kurdish claims from the emerging international order (Gunter, 2014).

From the perspective of international law, this settlement embedded a structural constraint on Kurdish secession. The principle of territorial integrity became dominant, while external self-determination remained applicable primarily to decolonisation contexts. As a result, Kurdish claims were subsumed within the sovereignty of existing states, leaving autonomy and minority rights as the primary—though uneven—avenues for political recognition.

From a diplomatic standpoint, the post-Lausanne order did more than delimit borders; it institutionalised a regional norm that external actors have been reluctant to disrupt. Even major powers that have tactically cooperated with Kurdish actors, such as the United States in Iraq and Syria, have stopped short of endorsing Kurdish statehood. This reflects a broader international consensus: while minority protections may be encouraged, redrawing borders in the Middle East risks cascading instability. Thus, Kurdish aspirations are evaluated not only through legal doctrine but also through geopolitical risk calculus.

For regional governments, Kurdish self-determination is not viewed in isolation. It is perceived through the prism of precedent. Any concession that resembles secession could embolden parallel claims elsewhere, whether ethnic, sectarian, or regional. Diplomatically, this creates a shared, even if rarely coordinated, interest among Ankara, Baghdad, Damascus, and Tehran in preventing full Kurdish independence, even when their bilateral relations remain adversarial.

Iraq: Institutionalised Autonomy Without Sovereignty

Among the four scenarios, Iraq represents the most evolved form of Kurdish self-rule. Since the establishment of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in the early 1990s, Iraqi Kurds have exercised a substantial degree of de facto autonomy. This process was later consolidated following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, which reshaped the country’s political system and formally recognised the Kurdistan Region within a federal framework. As Gunter (2014) argues, under the leadership of Masoud Barzani, who served as President of the Kurdistan Region from 2005 to 2017, the KRG expanded its institutional capacity, consolidating authority over regional governance, education, and security forces, including the Peshmerga.

This autonomy, however, has been shaped by internal political divisions, particularly the 1994 civil war between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which exposed the challenges of Kurdish political fragmentation and competing centres of authority within the region (Gunter, 2014). Moreover, Kurdish identity within Iraq has historically occupied an ambivalent position in national narratives. As reflected in Iraqi Arabic-language literature, Kurdish experiences were often marginalised or portrayed as peripheral to Iraqi national identity, reinforcing perceptions of Kurds as outsiders or potential challenges to state unity (Zeidel, 2011).

Despite post-1991 political transformations and increased engagement between Arab and Kurdish regions, Kurdish representation in Iraqi cultural and political discourse remains uneven. According to Zeidel (2011), this suggests that while autonomy has been institutionalised at the political and administrative level, it has not fully translated into broader societal integration within the Iraqi national framework.

From a diplomatic perspective, the Iraqi case demonstrates the outer limits of what the international system is currently willing to tolerate. The 2017 Kurdish independence referendum illustrated this boundary clearly. Despite strong domestic support within the Kurdistan Region, regional states uniformly opposed the move, and international actors declined to recognise the outcome. Baghdad’s reassertion of authority over disputed territories, including Kirkuk, proceeded without meaningful external resistance.

This episode underscores a critical diplomatic lesson: autonomy may be negotiated, but sovereignty remains guarded by both regional consensus and international inertia. The Kurdistan Regional Government today operates within a delicate equilibrium—leveraging energy diplomacy, foreign investment, and security partnerships, while avoiding steps that would trigger collective regional pushback.

Turkey: Identity, Security, and Contested Integration

In Turkey, the Kurdish question has been primarily framed as an issue of national unity and internal security. As Loizides (2010) notes, Kurdish national identity developed comparatively late, shaped by geographic dispersion, internal fragmentation, and prolonged state policies aimed at linguistic and cultural homogenisation. The Turkish state’s Kemalist ideology historically denied the existence of distinct ethnic identities, restricting Kurdish language use and political expression, which paradoxically contributed to the consolidation of Kurdish ethnic consciousness (Loizides, 2010).

Kurdish political movements in Turkey have adopted varied strategies, ranging from armed resistance to political participation and civil society mobilisation. Influenced by Abdullah Öcalan’s concept of Democratic Confederalism, segments of the Kurdish movement have articulated alternatives to statehood, advocating decentralised governance, cultural recognition, and participatory democracy without formal secession (Gunter, 2014).

From a realist perspective, Turkey’s response reflects a prioritisation of territorial integrity and regime security. Loizides (2010) observes that while limited political openings, such as EU-related reforms, diaspora media, and legal changes, have facilitated expressions of Kurdish identity, Kurdish demands continue to be assessed through a security lens, constraining institutional accommodation. 

However, realism alone does not fully capture Ankara’s evolving calculations. Turkey’s Kurdish policy is also shaped by its external diplomatic positioning—particularly relations with the European Union, NATO allies, and neighbouring Syria and Iraq. Periods of reform have often coincided with moments when Ankara sought to project democratic credentials internationally. Conversely, heightened security operations have tended to align with domestic political consolidation and regional instability.

Diplomatically, Turkey seeks to prevent the internationalisation of its Kurdish issue. It resists framing the matter as one of minority rights subject to external adjudication and instead asserts sovereign jurisdiction. This approach reflects a broader regional sensitivity: once internal identity conflicts become items on international diplomatic agendas, external leverage increases. Hence, Ankara’s consistent effort to define the issue primarily through a counterterrorism framework rather than as one of self-determination.

Syria: De Facto Autonomy and Recent Developments

In Syria, Kurdish political space expanded significantly during the civil war, as Kurdish-led administrations established de facto autonomous governance structures aligned with Democratic Confederalist principles (Gunter, 2014). These arrangements prioritised local councils, gender equality, and cultural recognition, while formally rejecting statehood claims.

Recent developments suggest a shift in the Syrian state’s approach. In 2026, Damascus issued a decree granting citizenship to stateless Kurds, recognising Kurdish as a national language and signalling an attempt to reintegrate Kurdish populations within a reconstituted state framework (Al Jazeera, 2026). These steps have taken place amid shifting military and diplomatic circumstances, including cooperation with Russia, and reflect the incorporation of Kurdish governance arrangements into broader processes of national consolidation.

The Syrian case introduces an additional diplomatic complexity: Kurdish actors have emerged not merely as domestic stakeholders but as intermediaries within broader geopolitical competition. Their cooperation with U.S.-led forces as local security partners, subsequent negotiations with Damascus, and tactical coordination with Russia illustrate how sub-state actors can acquire strategic relevance beyond their demographic weight.

Yet this relevance remains conditional. External powers have supported Kurdish-led administrations insofar as they serve immediate security objectives. Long-term political recognition, however, remains contingent upon reconciliation with central state authority. This reinforces a pattern observable across the region: Kurdish leverage increases during moments of state fragmentation but contracts as central governments reconstitute control.

Comparative Observations

Across all four cases, Kurdish political trajectories reflect the limits imposed by international norms, regional power balances, and domestic state structures. While Iraq demonstrates the possibility of sustained autonomy within a federal framework, Turkey and Iran continue to prioritise integration and security, and Syria’s evolving position remains closely tied to post-conflict state reconstruction.

From a diplomatic standpoint, the Kurdish question ultimately tests the flexibility of the Westphalian state system in the Middle East. It raises a recurring tension between stability and representation: regional governments prioritise territorial integrity, while Kurdish movements prioritise political recognition and self-administration. International actors, meanwhile, oscillate between normative support for minority rights and pragmatic commitment to existing borders.

The comparative evidence suggests that the future of Kurdish politics will not be determined by a singular breakthrough toward independence, but by incremental negotiations over autonomy, integration, and decentralisation. Where states perceive accommodation as strengthening stability, political space may expand. Where identity claims are securitised, political contraction is likely to follow.

In this sense, the Kurdish question remains less a frozen conflict than an evolving diplomatic negotiation embedded within broader regional transformations.

Bibliography 

Gunter, M., M. (2014), “Unrecognized De Facto States in World Politics: The Kurds.” The Brown Journal of World Affairs 20 (2): 161–178.

Loizides, N., G (2010), “State Ideology and the Kurds in Turkey.” Middle Eastern Studies 46 (4): 513–527. 

Zeidel, R. (2011), “The Iraqi Novel and the Kurds.” Review of Middle East Studies 45 (1): 19–34.

Al Jazeera (2026), “Syria Grants Immediate Citizenship to Kurds in Wake of Gains against SDF.” January 29, 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/29/syria-grants-immediate-citizenship-to-kurds-in-wake-of-gains-against-sdf.


*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

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Foreign Direct Investment: Why Asia Must Reframe Its Economic Strategy

By: Muad Zaki,

Senior Fellow at Asia Middle East Center (AMEC)


For much of the past decade, foreign direct investment (FDI) was treated by governments as a largely technical and economic matter. Policymakers focused on macroeconomic stability, incentives, infrastructure readiness, and regulatory predictability. The underlying assumption was that global capital flowed within a broadly stable international framework—one governed by shared rules, multilateral institutions, and predictable norms. That framework has now broken.

Across Asia, including Malaysia, growth strategies were built on openness to investment from multiple directions, the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and China. Non-alignment was not merely a diplomatic posture; it was an economic strategy made possible by an international system that rewarded neutrality and constrained unilateral coercion. For years, this allowed Asian economies to attract capital while remaining largely insulated from geopolitical confrontation.

Those conditions no longer hold. Foreign direct investment today operates in an international environment where prior assumptions about restraint, enforcement, and predictability have collapsed. Economic integration is no longer insulated from power politics. Capital flows are increasingly shaped by geopolitical pressure, strategic rivalry, and long-term alignment considerations, alongside traditional market fundamentals.

This reality was stated plainly at the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, when Mark Carney declared that the post-Cold War rules-based international order has already ruptured. His assessment was not a warning about future risk, but a diagnosis of present conditions. Trade, finance, supply chains, and regulatory systems are now routinely used as instruments of pressure rather than neutral mechanisms of cooperation. For a country as closely integrated with the United States as Canada, this public admission carried particular weight. For small and middle powers, the implications are even more serious.

In this fragmented global environment, sovereignty is increasingly respected only when it aligns with the strategic priorities of major powers. The experience of Venezuela illustrates this reality. External pressure was accompanied by unusually explicit statements linking strategic objectives directly to access to natural resources. Whatever one’s view of Venezuela’s domestic politics, the precedent is clear: when strategic assets are involved, international legal norms and multilateral restraint can be sidelined.

A similar logic, —expressed without military force,— was evident in Greenland. U.S. interest in Greenland was framed around security and strategic necessity, prompting firm rejection by Greenlandic and Danish authorities. The episode demonstrated that even stable, developed territories are not immune to from external pressure when geography or resources carry strategic value. These cases matter not because they are identical, but because they reflect a broader pattern with direct implications for long-term economic and investment policy.

Any serious discussion of foreign direct investment in Asia must also acknowledge the central role played by China in the region’s economic development over the past decade. Chinese investment has been a major driver of infrastructure expansion, industrial capacity building, manufacturing growth, logistics connectivity, and energy development across Asia, including Malaysia. These investments have focused on long-term economic fundamentals, such as—transport networks, industrial zones, ports, energy systems, and production facilities, —that directly support national development strategies and regional integration.

From the perspective of Asian governments and policymakers, Chinese investment has been widely regarded as practical, development-focused, and economically complementary. It has addressed financing gaps in large-scale projects that require scale, patience, and long investment horizons, often in areas where other sources of capital were limited or constrained. Importantly, China’s approach to investment engagement in Asia has emphasised economic outcomes rather than ideological or cultural conditionality, allowing host countries to pursue growth and infrastructure modernisation while preserving domestic policy autonomy.

At the same time, multinational corporations are adjusting rapidly to this new global landscape. Large firms now maintain dedicated geopolitical risk and strategic foresight units that assess medium- and long-term scenarios. These teams do not ask whether the old international system will return. They ask how host countries will manage alignment pressures once strategic competition intensifies further. The central concern for investors is policy durability and—whether regulatory frameworks, market access conditions, and compliance obligations will remain coherent over five to ten years.

In this context, countries that attempt to indefinitely hedge between competing power centres may be perceived as facing future policy disruption. This is not a judgement on the legitimacy of hedging, but a reflection of the narrowing space for sustained neutrality in a world where economic relations are increasingly politicised.

The breakdown of shared rules has also transformed how major powers approach investment. Foreign direct investment is increasingly used as leverage. Market access, technology cooperation, and even security partnerships are tied to political expectations. Policy signals from Washington suggest that preferential treatment for U.S. firms may become more explicit, sometimes at the expense of Canadian or European investors. Security arrangements can further complicate this environment when they indirectly constrain economic policy and raise questions about long-term regulatory independence.

At the same time, strategic divergence between the United States and the European Union, alongside Canada’s public reassessment of its global posture, is reshaping global investment behaviour. European scrutiny of major U.S. technology firms reflects a broader effort to reclaim regulatory and political autonomy in an increasingly fragmented international system. For Asia, this fragmentation presents both risks and opportunities.

What this means for Asian policymakers is clear. Foreign direct investment frameworks designed for a stable, rules-based international order are no longer sufficient. Governments must move from a model of passive investment attraction to one of strategic investment management. This requires integrating geopolitical foresight into economic policy, providing long-term clarity and predictability to investors, strengthening regional coordination within ASEAN, and embedding safeguards that protect sovereignty while preserving openness to productive partnerships.

This is not about choosing sides. It is about reducing vulnerability to coercion in a world where coercion has become normalised. The greatest risk facing policymakers today is not misjudgement, but delay. The assumption that the global system will self-correct has already been overtaken by events.Foreign direct investment will continue to flow. But in the current global environment, how it is governed —and the strategic clarity that underpins it —will increasingly determine not only economic outcomes, but national resilience itself.

*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

Mr. Muad M Zaki   

Senior Fellow

WRITTEN BY:

Muad Zaki
Director of Democracy & Transparency Initiative,
AMEC
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Starlink and the Risks of Digital Power Politics in the Middle East

By Muad M Zaki. 

Senior Fellow, Asia Middle East Center 

 

For more than a decade, U.S. strategy has searched for ways to influence political outcomes abroad without repeating the political and human costs of direct military intervention. Wars are expensive, electorally damaging, and increasingly unpopular across Western societies. In this environment, technology has been elevated as a substitute for force, capable of applying pressure, shaping narratives, and sustaining political movements without crossing the threshold of armed conflict.

The confrontation surrounding Starlink and Iran exposes the limits—and dangers—of that assumption. What began as a non-kinetic experiment in influence has not only failed to deliver decisive outcomes but, has also accelerated military escalation while raising fundamental questions about sovereignty, international law, and the reliability of shared communications infrastructure for allies as well as adversaries.

At its core, this is not a story about satellites or bandwidth. It is about whether privately owned technology can be selectively deployed to advance state objectives without undermining the legal order it claims to support.

The Strategic Appeal of Starlink

From a U.S. strategic perspective, Starlink appeared to offer something unprecedented: a transnational communications layer that does not rely on domestic infrastructure and is therefore difficult for states to control. Satellite terminals operate independently of national networks, creating the perception that connectivity could be sustained even when governments attempted to shut information flows down.

Strategically, this offered three advantages. First, circumvention without invasion. Political pressure could be applied without troops or airstrikes, avoiding escalation and the costs of kinetic force. Second, persistence. Because the infrastructure was external, it was assumed to be resilient to state countermeasures. Third, political insulation. As a privately owned commercial service, Starlink could be presented as neutral technology even when its effects aligned closely with U.S. foreign-policy objectives.

In practice, Starlink functioned as a pressure-sustaining infrastructure, capable of maintaining internal connectivity during periods of unrest while preserving external narrative access. This role reflected operational decisions about where, when, and for whom access would be enabled.

Domestic Constraints and Strategic Incentives

These assumptions cannot be separated from political realities in Washington. For President Donald Trump, the costs of direct confrontation with Iran are not abstract. Military escalation in the Middle East carries clear electoral risks, particularly ahead of midterm elections, when public tolerance for new conflicts is limited.

This has produced a visible split within the U.S. policy establishment. On one side are interventionist factions pressing for decisive action against Iran, even at the risk of regional war. On the other are “America First” voices that view foreign conflict as a political liability and urge concentration on domestic priorities. In this context, technology-driven pressure appeared to offer a compromise: influence outcomes without triggering a war that could destabilize domestic politics.

The Miscalculation

What was underestimated was not Iran’s technical capacity alone, but the breadth of its statecraft, particularly its anticipation that non-kinetic pressure would be paired with covert, intelligence-driven efforts to destabilize its internal security environment.

Rather than attempting to destroy satellites or escalate militarily, Iran focused on denying usability within its territory. States do not need to control infrastructure globally; they need only control the legal, physical, and electromagnetic environment in which it operates domestically.

Iran combined electromagnetic interference, criminal enforcement against unlicensed communications equipment, and physical deterrence through confiscation and penalties. These measures raised the personal cost of reliance on the system and sharply reduced its strategic utility. Importantly, they fall squarely within established principles of international law governing spectrum regulation and telecommunications.

The Neutrality Claim and the Gaza Test

The episode also exposes a deeper inconsistency in claims that Starlink operates as a neutral or humanitarian platform.

If satellite connectivity were genuinely deployed to protect civilians, journalists, and medical workers during crises, Gaza would represent the clearest possible case for its use. For more than two full years, Gaza has endured sustained large-scale civilian destruction, the collapse of medical infrastructure, mass displacement, and prolonged information blackouts, conditions widely recognized as genocide under international law by United Nations investigative mechanisms and reflected in proceedings before international courts under the 1948 Genocide Convention.

Yet during this two-year period, Starlink did not provide unrestricted, civilian-focused access to doctors, hospitals, journalists, or humanitarian organizations operating under siege. This absence is not a technical oversight or logistical delay. After two years, it can only be understood as a deliberate political choice.

Selective deployment across crises transforms a technology from a neutral humanitarian tool into a discretionary instrument aligned with geopolitical priorities.

Alignment With U.S. Policy and the Risks Ahead

It is therefore reasonable to conclude that Starlink has been used selectively in ways that support U.S. foreign-policy objectives, including in contexts where those objectives conflict with international legal obligations. Under international law, particularly the Genocide Convention, states and relevant actors have a duty to prevent genocide where possible. Withholding a capability that could materially assist civilians during a legally recognized genocide, while deploying that same capability elsewhere to sustain political pressure, carries legal and normative significance.

History suggests that escalation rarely begins with overt military strikes. It is more often preceded by covert action, intelligence operations, and proxy dynamics designed to weaken a target state from within. The Syrian war offers a sobering precedent: networks activated for short-term leverage quickly escaped control, producing regional instability that far outlasted their original objectives.

A similar risk now looms in the context of Iran. Such tactics may appear to offer deniability and leverage, but experience suggests they carry profound risks.

Europe and Global Consequences

The most significant danger revealed by the Starlink–Iran episode is not escalation with Iran alone, but the normalization of digital infrastructure as an instrument of geopolitical coercion. When private technology platforms can be selectively enabled or withheld in line with strategic priorities, they cease to function as neutral commercial services and instead become extensions of state power.

For Europe, the implications are acute. European states are deeply exposed to energy volatility, inflationary shocks, misinformation and political fragmentation driven by external crises. Yet they are also increasingly dependent on U.S.-based private infrastructure that operates under American jurisdiction. The Starlink precedent raises an unavoidable question: if such technologies can be used selectively against adversaries today, what guarantees exist that they will not be leveraged tomorrow in moments of transatlantic disagreement?

This is not a hypothetical concern. The selective deployment of Starlink—active in some politically aligned contexts, absent during two years of legally recognized genocide in Gaza—demonstrates that access is shaped by power, not principle. Once that reality is acknowledged, trust in shared infrastructure inevitably erodes.

The danger ahead is not simply escalation with Iran. It is the normalization of a system in which communications infrastructure becomes another instrument of coercion—quiet, deniable, and increasingly difficult to trust—undermining the sovereignty of independent states and destabilizing the international order.

*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

Mr. Muad M Zaki   

Senior Fellow

WRITTEN BY:

Muad Zaki
Director of Democracy & Transparency Initiative,
AMEC
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Canada–China Engagement in a Shifting Global Order: A Strategic Reset with Broader Implications for Asia—and Beyond

By: Muad Zaki,

Canada’s renewed engagement with China is often described as a tactical response to near-term geopolitical pressures. That interpretation understates what is unfolding.

What is taking shape reflects a deeper recognition: the assumptions that once governed alliance predictability, trade continuity, and economic risk are no longer reliable. Middle powers are adjusting accordingly—not loudly, not ideologically, but decisively.

The recent visit by the Canadian prime minister to Beijing, and the steps toward normalization that followed, signal an understanding that stability can no longer be assumed. In an environment shaped by persistent volatility—much of it originating from policy unpredictability in Washington—strategic resilience is increasingly defined by diversification rather than alignment alone.

Strategic Realism in an Era of U.S.-Driven Volatility

For decades, Canada operated within a U.S.-led economic system assumed to be institutionally stable. That assumption has weakened. The United States government has increasingly relied on unilateral trade actions, transactional diplomacy, and policy reversals driven by domestic political cycles.

These measures have affected allies as readily as adversaries. For export-dependent economies, this volatility translates directly into risk—discouraging investment, complicating planning, and exposing domestic sectors to external political shocks.

Canada’s recalibration should therefore be understood not as a rejection of partnership, but as a rational response to structural uncertainty.

Why Asia, and Why China

Asia remains the principal engine of global growth, and China sits at the center of global production and trade networks. Engagement reflects economic structure rather than political alignment.

Stabilizing relations with China expands Canada’s strategic options, strengthens supply-chain resilience, and reduces exposure to abrupt external shocks. In a deeply interdependent system, optionality has become a core strategic asset.

From Risk Mitigation to Structural Rebalancing

Engagement with China may begin as risk mitigation, but its longer-term implications are potentially far more consequential.

History suggests that shifts in global order rarely begin with declarations. They emerge through accumulated decisions taken by states adjusting to instability. Over time, those adjustments reshape strategic gravity.

If sustained, Canada’s recalibration may come to be viewed as an early indicator of a broader transition—one in which middle powers move away from singular strategic concentration toward more distributed and pragmatic alignment patterns.

Agriculture and Strategic Payoff

For Canadian agriculture, the implications are immediate. China has long been a critical market for Canadian canola, seafood, pulses, and agri-food exports. Disruptions in this relationship previously exposed farmers to sudden market closures and price instability unrelated to fundamentals.

Normalization restores predictability. For producers, that predictability translates into planning certainty, market confidence, and resilience. In commodity markets, certainty is value.

Inflation Risk and Economic Stability

The significance of engagement lies less in past price effects than in future risk avoidance.

Trade instability—particularly when driven by U.S. tariff escalation—has repeatedly introduced inflationary pressure into global markets. By reducing exposure to such shocks, Canada lowers the probability that external political volatility will transmit directly into domestic cost-of-living pressures.

Engagement functions not as stimulus, but as insulation.

Strategic Signaling

Canada’s approach also sends a signal. In a period marked by policy volatility from Washington, calm and deliberate engagement communicates competence and strategic autonomy.

This posture reflects neither naïveté nor confrontation. It reflects a judgment that economic security in the current era requires diversification—even among allies.

A Test Case for Europe

Canada’s recalibration may resonate beyond the Indo-Pacific. For Europe, which faces similar exposure to U.S. trade volatility and strategic uncertainty, the Canada–China trajectory could serve as a reference point.

Historically, the European Union has adjusted incrementally to external shocks—trade disputes, sanctions spillovers, energy dependence—rather than through abrupt realignment. The concept of strategic autonomy emerged from precisely such reassessments.

Canada’s experience may help clarify whether engagement with China can be recalibrated without abandoning alliances or political values. The question is no longer whether diversification is desirable, but whether delaying it remains viable.

A Strategic Imperative for Beijing

For this recalibration to endure, the next move matters. China should treat Canada’s decision not merely as a diplomatic opening, but as a strategic moment requiring speed, visibility, and tangible delivery.

The current Canadian government has taken a political risk by moving toward normalization at a time when neoconservative currents in Washington are likely to respond with pressure and disruption. If early benefits are not felt domestically, momentum can stall.

China therefore has a clear interest in front-loading benefits in ways that ordinary Canadian businesses and citizens can feel quickly.

Accelerated market access for Canadian agri-food exports, fast-tracked approvals for small and medium-sized enterprises, expanded business mobility, and visible near-term purchasing commitments would translate diplomacy into an immediate economic signal. These steps do not require new ideology. They require execution.

Canada has opened the door. The strategic task now is to ensure the corridor is used before it is contested.

Canada’s renewed engagement with China reflects a clear-eyed response to structural change in the international system. It prioritizes economic stability, protects key export sectors, and reduces exposure to external policy volatility—particularly that originating from an increasingly unpredictable United States.

If sustained—and matched by decisive, visible follow-through from Beijing—this approach may come to be understood not merely as prudent diversification, but as one of the earliest long-term adjustments to a shifting global order.

In a world where unpredictability has become structural, adaptability is no longer tactical. It is strategic.


*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

Mr. Muad M Zaki   

Senior Fellow
WRITTEN BY:
Muad Zaki
Director of Democracy & Transparency Initiative,
AMEC
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Power Without Restraint: What Asia Must Now Confront

By Muad M Zaki. 

Senior Fellow, Asia Middle East Center 

The assumption that Asian—or even Muslim—countries can continue to depend on an unreliable and unpredictable United States, or a visibly weakened Europe, as pillars of global stability must now be rigorously re-examined.

It is true that many Asians, including Muslims and others, were educated in politics, science, and numerous other disciplines in the West, and there remains genuine gratitude for that intellectual legacy. Yet the West that was once admired has steadily eroded due to its own strategic and ideological failures. The free marketplace of ideas and robust protection of free speech—once the cornerstone of Western political appeal—has largely vanished. Today, students paying premium tuition fees in many Western countries no longer encounter the intellectually open and pluralistic environments that earlier generations experienced. Instead, they face expanding regulatory, ideological, and institutional constraints on independent thought and expression.

For those who continue to argue that Asia somehow “owes” the West, the only obligation that remains is to remind Western policymakers why their systems were once respected—because at present, their governance trajectory is moving decisively in reverse gear.

The recent actions of the US neoconservative establishment in Venezuela—including the extraterritorial seizure of its leader and the hurried fabrication of legal justifications for what are fundamentally unlawful acts—underscore how selectively both international law and domestic US law are now applied. This should serve as a clear warning to every independent government that values the rule of law, or at minimum expects consistency and good faith from Washington.

If even long-standing US allies such as Canada and members of the European Union can no longer rely on American commitments, it is unrealistic for Asian states to assume that trade agreements or security arrangements engineered by the US will remain dependable. The strategic risk is simply too high.

Simultaneously, many Asian countries increasingly look toward China for economic partnership and security balance, albeit with unease stemming from Beijing’s long-standing non-interference doctrine. This presents China with a growing strategic dilemma. First, Beijing has effectively lost Venezuela, one of its most dependable economic partners in Latin America. If this lesson is not internalized swiftly, China risks a similar outcome with its most significant strategic partner in the Middle East: Iran.

Should this occur, it is entirely plausible that the US will escalate pressure on Asian states, coercing alignment regardless of domestic public opinion. Washington’s calculation, however, continues to rely on China maintaining strict adherence to non-interference—thereby allowing the US to incrementally encircle China, following a playbook previously deployed against Russia.

At present, China retains a strategic advantage in Asia. Across the region, there are credible political leaders prepared to accept China as a regional political and security anchor—provided China is willing to assume that role decisively. Yet as long as Beijing’s non-interference posture remains unchanged, Asian governments will continue to view open resistance to US pressure as a political and economic gamble, particularly when Chinese intervention is assumed but not guaranteed.

From Beijing’s perspective, substantial resources have rightly been devoted to people-to-people engagement and shared economic prosperity. However, the pace of this approach has not matched the speed or intensity of contemporary US geopolitical adventurism. While long-term societal engagement is essential, China could benefit from selectively adopting foreign-policy methods historically employed by Britain in Asia—particularly in distinguishing between leaders who view China merely as a financial resource for domestic patronage, and those who genuinely value China as a stabilizing regional partner.

As global geopolitics continue to deteriorate, Asia must adapt with realism rather than nostalgia—until, perhaps, the West eventually recognizes that perpetual confrontation and manufactured instability serve no one’s long-term interests.

*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, institution, or group with which the author is affiliated.

Mr. Muad M Zaki   

Senior Fellow

WRITTEN BY:

Muad Zaki
Director of Democracy & Transparency Initiative,
AMEC
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Transitional justice between Peace, Memory and Reconciliation: Lessons from the Past for Syria’s Future

BY: Roberta Lazzaro Danzuso

The persistent dilemma confronting post-conflict societies concerns the sequencing of transitional imperatives. When should the attainment of peace be prioritised, and when should demands for justice prevail? The Syrian conflict, like other instances scrutinised within the transitional-justice literature, has wrought not only material destruction but also an erosion of social trust and communal cohesion. Consequently, tensions emerge between imperatives of negotiated stability and claims for accountability for grave international crimes[1].

This article interrogates the enduring tension between peace and justice in post-conflict transitions and applies comparative lessons to Syria’s emerging transitional architecture. Building on insights shared by practitioners and scholars during the PILPG[2] 2025 Peace and Negotiation Summer School course, dedicated to the Post-Conflict Statebuilding and the Case of Syria, it draws on cases from Sierra Leone, the Balkans, South Africa, Colombia and Rwanda, demonstrating that durable transitional outcomes require a context-specific mix of judicial and non-judicial instruments, domestically anchored design and strategic sequencing.

Conceptual framework: instruments and sequencing

Transitional justice is not merely an alternative to ordinary criminal justice; rather, it encompasses a spectrum of judicial and non-judicial mechanisms, with varying degrees of international involvement (or none), including individual prosecutions, reparations, truth-seeking mechanisms, institutional reform (comprising vetting and removal from office) or combinations thereof, depending on the context.[3] The literature identifies several potential trajectories: privileging peace; prioritising justice; pursuing a “peace with justice” or experiencing a growing judicialization of peace processes – that is, the increasing influence of courts and judicial bodies on political negotiations, with ambivalent consequences for accountability and for the prospects of reaching and sustaining peace.

Sierra Leone and the coexistence of restorative and retributive mechanisms

The protracted civil war in Sierra Leone, partly a spillover from the conflict in Liberia and heavily fueled by the struggle to control diamond resources, illustrates the practical and moral challenges of balancing the imperatives of immediate peace with the demands of criminal accountability. The 1999 Lomé Peace Agreement included a blanket amnesty clause that facilitated a ceasefire but simultaneously left deep wounds and sparked considerable controversy over questions of justice. In practice, the transitional response was dual and parallel: a Truth and Reconciliation Commission with a restorative and narrative mandate, tasked with collecting testimonies, documenting violations and fostering processes of reconciliation; and the Special Court for Sierra Leone, established to prosecute those bearing “the greatest responsibility” for the gravest crimes (a mechanism that avoided blanket impunity without derailing the fragile peace process.

This experience demonstrates that the coexistence of restorative (TRC) and retributive (Special Court) mechanisms can succeed when their mandates are clearly delineated and communicated, when practical coordination is ensured (procedural sequencing, witness protection, allocation of resources) and when meaningful space is created for both symbolic and material redress for victims. Ambassador Yvette Stevens and other observers have emphasized that this multi-dimensional approach, together with the clarity in the distribution of responsibilities between commission and court, was central to preventing the Lomé amnesty from devolving into a perceived culture of impunity in Sierra Leone.[4]

Memory, symbols and institutional confidence in Montenegro and the Balkans

If the Sierra Leonean experience illustrates the delicate balance between peace, truth and accountability in a context marked by resource-driven conflict, the post-Yugoslav Balkans, and particularly Montenegro, highlight a different but equally crucial dimension of transitional justice: the reconstruction of trust in the aftermath of mass atrocity and the role of institutional, symbolic and economic measures in shaping reconciliation and state-building. The post-1995 Balkans demonstrate that collective traumas (Srebrenica above all) rapidly erode social trust, and that if civic culture and historical memory are not actively nurtured, the reconstruction of confidence becomes a project spanning decades.

The Montenegrin case is particularly instructive, as it combined political, symbolic and economic elements: the decision – controversial yet strategic – to introduce the Deutsche Mark at the end of 1999, and subsequently the euro, was not merely an economic maneuver to stabilize prices and safeguard savings, but also a political act of symbolic autonomy vis-à-vis Belgrade. The subsequent Belgrade Agreement and the constitutional framework established in 2002 created a pragmatic arrangement of “one State, two economic systems”, which allowed for the functional separation of economic and political spheres during the transitional period. Igor Lukšić, a key actor in Montenegro’s transition, has emphasized the importance of early confidence-building measures, predictable institutional rules and political symbols capable of ensuring minority inclusion, thereby pre-empting historical revisionism and competing narratives.[5]

The Montenegrin experience suggests that economic and symbolic measures (currency reform, autonomous fiscal policies) can serve as instruments of political stabilization, provided they are coupled with institutional reforms and underpinned by a minimal consensus on clear and predictable rules.

Alternatives and trade-offs from South Africa, Colombia and Rwanda

Whereas the Sierra Leonean and Montenegrin cases shed light on, respectively, the balance between peace and accountability and the role of economic-symbolic measures in rebuilding trust, a broader comparative perspective highlights further variations. Other transitional contexts (South Africa, Colombia and Rwanda) offer additional insights into how different societies have sought to reconcile truth, accountability and reconciliation through distinct institutional and culture mechanisms.

In South Africa, the post-apartheid Truth and Reconciliation Commission – led by Archbishop Desmond Tutu and his colleagues – adopted the mechanism of conditional amnesty in exchange for full public disclosure. The public revelation of truth was conceived as a form of symbolic healing, essential for the moral legitimacy of the new democracy, even as it left unresolved criticisms regarding the lack of material punishment.

In Colombia, the 2016 peace accord introduces the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP), which provides alternative sanctions and reparative measures for those who acknowledge responsibility. This pragmatic model of compromise sought to maximize truth-telling, victim participation and the reintegration of former combatants, while in many cases avoiding traditional custodial sentences.

In Rwanda, the Gacaca courts – deeply rooted in local communal practices – enabled the mass processing of genocide-related cases in a relatively short period of time, fostering community involvement and testimonial exchange. Yet they also attracted criticism for shortcomings in procedural safeguards and for the tensions they generated between local justice and international legal standards.

Comparative synthesis: no one-size-fits-all

Taken together, these cases underscore a crucial lesson: there is no “one-size-fits-all” model of transitional justice. Instruments such as conditional amnesty, alternative sanctions and community-based justice must be tailored to the cultural fabric, institutional capacity and expectations of victims in each specific context. As Ambassador Amina Mohamed has stressed, no matter how urgent a political settlement may be, peace will falter unless it is built on a foundation of inclusivity and accountability.[6] Above all, local legitimacy and victim participation emerge as non-negotiable conditions for the durability and credibility of transitional outcomes.

Syria: context and recent institutional developments

Today, Syria stands at a critical juncture between continuity of established practices and the opportunity to innovate a genuinely domestic transitional justice process. In May 2025, transitional authorities established a National Transitional Justice Commission (NCTJ) – mandated to “uncover the truth about the grave violations caused by the former regime, hold those responsible accountable in coordination with the relevant authorities, compensate the victims, and consolidate the principles of non-repetition and national reconciliation” – and a Commission for Missing Persons (NCM) to address over one hundred thousand missing and detained persons. As stated on Amnesty International’s official website, between 2011 and 2024, it is estimated that over 100,000 individuals were subjected to enforced disappearance in Syria.[7] The overwhelming majority were forcibly disappeared by the Assad government within its extensive network of detention facilities, while additional cases have been linked to armed opposition groups.[8] These data clearly underscore the existence of a profound vacuum that must be addressed within a transitional justice process which, as emphasized by relevant international actors, such as Amnesty International and the International Centre for Transitional Justice (ICTJ), requires transparency, independence and meaningful victim participation.

Syria: sequencing and policy design

Turning these bodies into credible mechanisms demands careful sequencing and a calibrated mix of measures. The ordering of elections, judicial proceedings, refugee returns, and institutional reforms is not neutral: comparative experiences from Sierra Leone and Colombia illustrate that truth-telling, graduated sanctions and non-custodial measures are effective only when paired with credible demobilization and reintegration strategies. At the same time, some grave crimes will demand formal judicial accountability; restorative or administrative measures cannot substitute for prosecution where atrocity crimes are implicated. As the United Nations has emphasized, any transitional-justice process must be nationally owned and sensitive to local conditions, centred on victims’ needs and inclusive of all relevant stakeholders (notably women, youth and minorities).[9] Thus, international actors should support the domestic design and implementation of context-specific, victim-centred processes that address the root causes and structural drivers of violations and thereby contribute to prevention, sustained peace, development and reconciliation.

Syria: memory, participation and legitimacy

Memory and truth are inseparable from institutional capacity: the Balkans and Rwanda demonstrate that public narratives require documentation, witness protection and educational initiatives to prevent revisionism. As Joud Monla-Hassan stresses, transitional justice must be genuinely “Syrian-led”, informed by survivors, civil society and the diaspora[10]; only through meaningful inclusion can the new commissions build legitimacy and public trust. This point is salient given that the transitional authorities’ own legitimacy may be contested: the commissions must therefore demonstrate independence, transparency and representative composition from the outset if they are to earn popular confidence. 

Timing and constitutional framing

Finally, Dr. Paul R. Williams emphasizes the complexity of rebuilding political, legal and social infrastructures after decades of dictatorship and conflict, noting that a return to the pre-war status quo is neither feasible nor desirable. Williams stresses that processes such as refugee returns, elections, establishment of legal mechanisms and institutional stabilization must be carefully coordinated.[11] The transitional period should be time-bound, governed by an interim constitutional framework and guided by a clear public roadmap. Strategic sequencing of these measures is essential, as holding elections prematurely, without an appropriate political and legal foundation, risks creating power vacuums or undermining democratic legitimacy.[12]

Practical recommendations

Building on comparative lessons and the Syrian context, five practical priorities emerge: 1) codify the mandates and legal safeguards for the NCTJ and NCM to guarantee independence and victim-centredness; 2) adopt a publicly negotiated sequencing roadmap that sequences elections, accountability measures and refugee returns by political feasibility and security considerations; 3) design a calibrated mix of judicial and non-judicial instruments, including hybrid or internationalized modalities for the gravest crimes; 4) mainstream psychosocial support, reparations and service delivery to tangibly demonstrate benefits to victims; 5) establish independent monitoring and transparency mechanisms (including public reporting and civic oversight) to sustain public trust.

A further step to enhance the effectiveness and credibility of Syria’s emerging transitional justice institutions would be to establish a formal data-sharing framework between the National Transitional Justice Commission (NTJC), the National Commission for Missing Persons (NCM) and the UN-mandated Independent Institution for Missing Persons (IIMP). Such cooperation, grounded in informed victim consent, strict confidentiality and independent oversight, would serve several purposes. First, it would prevent duplication of investigative efforts and inconsistencies across national and international databases. Second, it would accelerate the identification of the disappeared by enabling secure exchange of genetic, testimonial and documentary evidence. Third, it would strengthen transparency and public trust by linking domestic mechanisms with an internationally recognised body. Finally, a harmonised and victim-centred data system would improve families’ access to truth, reparations and psychosocial support, thereby transforming fragmented documentation into meaningful outcomes for survivors.

Conclusion

Syria’s transitional framework stands at a crossroads: it can either generate institutions lacking legitimacy or evolve into a process capable of healing collective wounds and rebuilding social trust. The outcome will hinge on ensuring inclusion, transparency and coherence between memory, accountability and reform. If grounded in meaningful engagement with victims and designed with strategic realism, Syria’s path could offer an innovative model of transitional justice for the wider region.


[1] The core international crimes under the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (1998) are: genocide (article 6), crimes against humanity (article7), war crimes (article 8) and crime of aggression (article 8 bis).

[2] The Public International Law & Policy Group (PILPG) is a global pro bono law firm providing free legal assistance to parties involved in peace negotiations, drafting post-conflict constitutions, and war crimes prosecution/transitional justice.

[3] United Nations (UN), Guidance note of the secretary-general, “Transitional Justice. A Strategic Tool for People, Prevention and Peace”, 2023, p.2. Available at: https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/default/files/document/files/2024/03/202307guidancenotetransitionaljusticeen.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

[4] Yvette Stevens, “Transitional justice – Lessons Learned from Sierra Leona” presented at the PILPG 2025 Peace Negotiation Summer School: Post-Conflict Statebuilding and the Case of Syria, July 2025 (available at: https://pilpg-trainings.squarespace.com/day-3-transitional-justice-and-accountability)

[5] Igor Lukšić “Case Study: Lessons Learned from Montenegro’s Transition” presented at the PILPG 2025 Peace Negotiation Summer School: Post-Conflict Statebuilding and the Case of Syria, July 2025 (available at: https://pilpg-trainings.squarespace.com/post-conflict-state-building-key-concepts-and-perspectives)

[6] Amina Mohamed, “Legal Reforms and Constitution Building” presented at the PILPG 2025 Peace Negotiation Summer School: Post-Conflict Statebuilding and the Case of Syria, July 2025 (available at: https://pilpg-trainings.squarespace.com/post-conflict-governance-and-the-rule-of-law)

[7] Amnesty International, Syria: New Government must ensure Truth, Justice and Reparations for the disappeared, 2025. Available at: https://amnesty.ca/human-rights-news/syria-new-government-must-ensure-truth-justice-and-reparations-for-the-disappeared/#:~:text=He%20said%20the%20NCM’s%20core,by%20the%20rule%20of%20law.

[8] Ibidem.

[9] United Nations, OCHR: Transitional justice and human rights, 2025. Available at: https://www.ohchr.org/en/transitional-justice

[10] Joud Monla-Hassan, “Domestic and Locally Owned Transitional Justice and State-Building Processes in Syria” presented at the PILPG 2025 Peace Negotiation Summer School: Post-Conflict Statebuilding and the Case of Syria, July 2025 (available at: https://pilpg-trainings.squarespace.com/day-3-transitional-justice-and-accountability#:~:text=international%20conferences—on%20the%20future%20of,and%20grounded%20in%20local%20realities) See also Nousha Kabawat, “To Syria’s New Justice Commissions: Victims Need You Now,” 31 July 2025, emphasizing that the new commissions must explicitly recognize violations wherever they occur, advocate for victims without discrimination or political pressure, ensure genuine independence, and reflect Syria’s full diversity in composition and decision-making so that all victims are represented and heard (available at: https://www.ictj.org/latest-news/syria’s-new-justice-commissions-victims-need-you-now#:~:text=independence%20by%20ensuring%20that%20no,see%20themselves%20represented%20and%20heard)

[11] Paul R. Williams, “Introduction to Post-Conflict State Building: Challenges and Opportunities”, presented at the PILPG 2025 Peace Negotiation Summer School: Post-Conflict Statebuilding and the Case of Syria, July 2025 (available at: https://pilpg-trainings.squarespace.com/post-conflict-state-building-key-concepts-and-perspectives)

[12] Qutaiba Idlbi, Charles Lister, Marie Forestier, Reimagining Syria: A Roadmap for Peace and Prosperity Beyond Assad, in Middle East Institute, 2025. Available at: https://www.mei.edu/publications/reimagining-syria-roadmap-peace-and-prosperity-beyond-assad#:~:text=supported%20by%20a%20clear%2C%20public,framework%2C%20risks%20undermining%20democratic%20progress

Auther’s Bio

Roberta Lazzaro Danzuso holds a bachelor’s in history, Politics and International Relations and is pursuing a master’s in law in Strasbourg with a focus on minority rights. She has over four years of experience in private tutoring. She helps students understand complex historical, political, and legal topics through clear explanations. Based in Catania, she supports learners at different levels.

She can be reached at : roberta.lazzaro15@gmail.com

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One-day International Conferenceon Palestine: Exploring Asian Perspectives

Executive Summary                                        


The One-day International Conference on Palestine: Exploring Asian Perspectives, held on 4 November 2024 at the University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, was a collaborative initiative organized by the Asia Middle East Center for Research and Dialogue (AMEC), University of Malaya, and the Hashim Sani Centre for Palestine Studies. The conference aimed to provide a platform for experts, academics, policymakers, and activists to engage in discussions on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with a specific focus on the role and responses of Malaysia and the broader Asian community.


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AMEC Visitations to UI and UMJ  Highlight Cross-Sector Advocacy for Palestine

Jakarta, 8 September 2025 — The Asia Middle East Center for Research and Dialogue (AMEC) conducted a series of academic and humanitarian engagements in Jakarta, strengthening partnerships with Universitas Indonesia (UI) and Muhammadiyah University of Jakarta (UMJ). Dr. Ferooze Ali, Senior Fellow at AMEC and lecturer at Sultan Zainal Abidin University, Malaysia, who were visiting Indonesia had these visitations focused on interfaith dialogue, youth activism, and humanitarian aid for Palestine.

The first visit took place at Universitas Indonesia (UI), where Dr. Ferooze met with Mr. Broto Wardoyo, Ph.D., Head of the International Relations Department. Their discussion explored how the Palestinian issue is understood among non-Muslim communities in Indonesia, particularly Christians, and emphasized that the conflict should be framed as a human rights crisis, not merely a religious one.

Mr. Wardoyo shared how organizations like the Indonesian Communion of Churches (PGI) are often included in Muslim-led Palestine solidarity actions by the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI), sending a clear message of interfaith unity. They also discussed the limited influence of Evangelical Christian groups in Indonesia. 

The conversation further highlighted the growing role of youth in Palestine advocacy. Student organizations, digital activism, and grassroots movements are increasingly framing the issue within a global justice narrative. Dr. Ferooze noted this as a promising trend for sustaining inclusive, values-based support for Palestinian rights.

Later that day, Dr. Ferooze and AMEC Indonesia’s team visited Dr. Asep Setiawan (AMEC’s Regional Coordinator) and Mr. Hamka, M.Si (Senior Lecturer at UMJ) at the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences (FISIP) at Muhammadiyah University of Jakarta (UMJ) for a closed discussion in preparation for his upcoming book on NGOs and Malaysian Foreign Aid to Palestine. The session was co-organized by AMEC and UMJ’s Political Science Program.

In the discussion, Dr. Ferooze stressed the urgency of increasing and improving humanitarian aid to Gaza, particularly in light of ongoing Israeli aggression. He called on NGOs to enhance their professionalism, coordination, and transparency to ensure that aid is both effective and ethically delivered. He noted that aid has spiritual and moral significance in Islam, and its proper management reinforces public trust and accountability.

Mr. Hamka, M.Si shared findings from his year-long research on Muhammadiyah’s humanitarian efforts in Gaza. He highlighted Muhammadiyah’s role in humanitarian diplomacy, in strengthening Indonesia’s global image as a humanitarian actor, and in supporting peace aligned with national foreign policy.

Recent figures show that Malaysian NGOs, through the Humanitarian Trust Fund for Palestine (AAKRP), have distributed over 99 million Ringgit (approx. IDR 383.4 billion) in aid between 2023 and 2025. Meanwhile, Muhammadiyah has contributed IDR 40 billion across two periods. Other Indonesian NGOs—such as Dompet Dhuafa, Aqsha Working Group (AWG), Maemuna Center Indonesia, and MER-C—also remain active in Gaza relief efforts.

These visitations reaffirm AMEC’s commitment to fostering academic dialogue, interfaith understanding, and sustained humanitarian support for the people of Palestine. Through partnerships with Indonesian institutions, AMEC continues to amplify advocacy that is grounded in justice, collaboration, and compassion.

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